Can the classy Caturra justify decision to skip Commonwealth Cup?

Saturday: 2.50 Sandown
Coral Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) | 5f | 3yo | ITV/RTV

Clive Cox's decision to remove Caturra from the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and run him in the Listed Scurry Stakes at Sandown six days earlier can be interpreted in two ways.

Either Caturra is not completely firing, or the trainer is attempting to mould his three-year-old into a five-furlong sprinter despite his standout performance coming over six.

Caturra was beaten only a length and a half by Perfect Power in the Middle Park last season and reverts to the minimum distance for the first time this campaign.

His performance when fifth in the Sandy Lane over six furlongs last time behind Commonwealth hopes El Caballo, Flaming Rib, Wings Of War and Go Bears Go didn't scream five furlongs, but he has winning form over the trip and major claims, even with a 5lb penalty.

However, I would sooner be a layer than a backer at odds-on. Horses progress and regress. There are two such runners of major interest in the former category.

No horse in this field has climbed the ladder quicker than Live In The Dream has in recent times. Frankie Dettori combines with Adam West for the first time and this rapid, battle-hardened front-runner has improved markedly since finishing fourth in a soft-ground handicap off 84 in April.

Live In The Dream has winning form over course and distance and showed plenty of speed in the Dash at Epsom last time, finishing fifth to Tees Spirit as the sole three-year-old in the field off a mark of 99.

Another plausible winner is the Roger Varian-trained Mitbaahy, who came from last to first to land a Hamilton conditions race run at a blistering gallop last time.

The strong early fractions suited Mitbaahy and Live In The Dream should provide that pace set-up again. His pedigree suggests he will continue to improve, albeit over further.

Mitbaahy is by Profitable, a sprinter who maintained his form as a five-year-old, and a half-brother to Group 3-placed middle-distance horse Finians Bay and Going Global, who won a nursery off 70 for Mick Halford in November 2020 before establishing herself as a Grade 1 winner in the US over 1m1f.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Varian out to win it again

Morawij was the last winner of this race to defy a penalty back in 2013 and Roger Varian, who was responsible for that, is out to stop Caturra following suit as he fields Mitbaahy.

The son of Profitable was twice placed at this level last year, but jockey David Egan thinks he is a bigger threat as a three-year-old and he comes here on the back of an impressive win at Hamilton.

Egan, who rode Mitbaahy to be second on his seasonal return at Nottingham, said: "Mitbaahy has done very well from two to three and is a horse I like a lot. I’ve ridden him a lot in his homework and he won very well at Hamilton last time. He had a bit to do with the favourite on ratings that day but really stayed on quite well up the hill."

He added: "This is a step back up in class to a Listed race in which he was twice placed last year but he’s a more mature horse this year and I expect him to be very competitive."

What they say

Adam Kirby, rider of Caturra
He looks to have a great chance dropping back in trip as he's got faster. Hopefully the race will be run to suit.

Joe Foley, spokesman for Clipper Logistics, owner of Attagirl and Illustrating
Things haven’t gone Attagirl’s way yet this year but she’s been working well so we’re hopeful of a good run. Illustrating got no run on her comeback at Bath and conditions should suit her very well.

Illustrating: is one of two representatives for Karl BurkeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Adam West, trainer of Live In The Dream
He got cut up a bit by the winner in the Epsom Dash last weekend which cost him some ground but he still ran well to be fifth. Considering that race is dominated by older horses he did well for a three-year-old and he’s bounced out of that so we’re going again. The owners are excited to get Frankie Dettori to ride as it’s on their bucket list.

Roger Varian, trainer of Mitbaahy
He’s a progressive sprinter and I expect the track to suit him. It’s a small field but we’re happy with his condition going into the race and we are hopeful he can put up a bold show.
Reporting by David Milnes

Saturday's race previews:

2.00 York: 'It's extra special' - Serena Brotherton excited for female amateur challenge

2.35 York: Boardman heads trio of course-and-distance winners in red-hot handicap

3.05 York: Shadwell have got it right this year - but has one slipped through the net?

3.40 York: 'I fancy him very strongly here' - key trainer quotes for York's big sprint

3.40 York analysis: Who's on the right path to sprint glory? Graeme Rodway outlines the best route (£)

Saturday jury: 'I'd be very excited to ride him' - Jack Mitchell with his big hope for Ascot (£)

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.