Can progressive Adaay In Asia make a winning start in Group company?

Wednesday: 3.35 DoncasterJapan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) | 7f | 3yo+ | Sky

Has there been a bigger success story than Adaay In Asia this season? She has improved her career-best Racing Post Rating from 87 at the start of the campaign to 103 right now and is bidding to make it five wins on the spin by landing her first Group race at the first attempt.

This is quite a step up, though. The median RPR of all Group 3 winners in recent years is 112 and, even if you take 3lb off to reflect the fact this is a fillies’ event, it still comes in at 109. That means Adaay In Asia needs to improve at least another 6lb to win an average Group 3.

The median RPR of winners of this race is slightly lower at 108, so maybe 5lb will be enough, and Adaay In Asia is still unexposed over this seven-furlong trip. She has had 16 of her 17 starts in sprints and her last win in a York handicap was her first outing at this distance.

That gives hope she can reach the level needed to win an average running, but this might be better than that because four of her rivals have already bettered an RPR of 108 in their career.

Novemba has a highest RPR of 114, but she hasn’t run to that level since last year and her best this season is just 104. All three of her highest figures have come on ground with either soft or heavy in the description and, if the rain arrives, she will probably be the one to beat.

Weather forecasts vary for the Doncaster area, with some predicting rain and others suggesting it might stay dry. Umm Kulthum (best RPR 110) and Bounce The Blues (111) would also want the rain to arrive, but Heredia (109) probably wants better going.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Hogan chasing four-timer on Adaay In Asia

Jockey Dylan Hogan has his first ride in a Group race on Adaay In Asia and is out to extend his unbeaten sequence on Harry Dunlop’s filly.

The 27-year-old has been putting himself about as a freelance in Newmarket this season and is in the midst of his best ever run. Hogan rides work for the likes of Michael Bell, Julia Feilden and Jack Jones.

Hogan is three from three on the three-year-old, including when landing a £100,000 race last time at York.

Dylan Hogan: has his first ride in a Group race at Doncaster on WednesdayCredit: Patrick McCann

The jockey said: “I’m looking forward to getting back on Adaay In Asia in what will be my first Group-race ride and Harry Dunlop deserves a little bit of luck for the loyalty he’s shown me. I’m a bit worried about the ease in the ground but she’s in good form and should give another good account.

"I’ve won on her three times at Chepstow, Goodwood and then at York, when Harry was kind enough to put me back on after she had won at the Shergar Cup when I couldn’t ride.”

He added of his season: “Things could not be going any better. I’m down on the number of rides but I’ve nearly beaten my tally from last year [27] already, so hopefully I can keep it going.”

What they say

Marco Botti, trainer of Divine Magic
It’s a tough race but she’s in good form and she won’t mind any ease in the ground as she won on soft at Leicester and Sandown last year. Like many in the race she’s chasing black type.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Nizaaka
We tried her over a mile last time at Sandown which didn’t come off and we feel seven furlongs is more her trip. We expect her to be in the shake-up.

George Boughey, trainer of Romantic Rival
She was bought to get black type. If it comes up soft she should handle it based on her previous form and we expect a better showing.

Ed Walker, trainer of Sunset Bay
She’s in good form but ideally wants top of the ground, so if they get a lot more rain she probably won’t run.
Reporting by David Milnes

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