Can long-absent Indigo Girl take advantage of a big drop in class in Group 3?

Friday: 3.00 Ascot
British Racecourses Join Sunflower Lanyard Scheme Valiant Stakes (Group 3) | 1m | 3yo+ fillies & mares | Sky

Indigo Girl was beaten a half-length in second in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at Newmarket on her last start in October, when she had 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth and superstar Oaks winner Snowfall behind. A reproduction of that form should be enough to win this race.

Since the start of 2016, there have been 90 horses competing in fillies' Group 3 races who had contested a fillies' Group 1 on their previous start and 18 were successful. That's a healthy 20 per cent strike-rate and a £1 bet on all of those runners would have yielded a profit of £11.03.

Furthermore, if you narrow the sample to include only horses who finished in the first two on their previous start, the strike-rate improves to 38 per cent (3-8; +£1.25 to £1 level stakes).

Indigo Girl is the only horse with Group 1 form in the field and she will be hard to beat, but on Racing Post Ratings she isn't the highest in the field. That honour goes to Lights On.

Lights On achieved a Racing Post Rating of 113 when bolting up by ten lengths in a Listed race at Pontefract last time and that is 1lb higher than the median RPR of 112 for all Group 3 winners in Britain and Ireland since the start of 2008. She should be up to this level.

Lights On: bolted up at Pontefract last timeCredit: Pool

Noel Meade might be better known as a jumps trainer, but he sends Elysium across the Irish Sea and she will be only his fifth Flat runner in Britain and Ireland since the start of 2010. All four of those were beaten though, and they achieved uninspiring form figures of 8006.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Oisin Murphy, rider of Dreamloper
She didn't get a lot of luck in running at Royal Ascot last time and Ed Walker's horses are flying, so she must go there with a decent shout. We respect the likes of Lights On and Indigo Girl, but hopefully she can get some black type.

Chris Richardson, racing manager to Cheveley Park Stud, owners of Lights On
She was very impressive at Pontefract last time and has come out of that in good shape. This looks the obvious next step up for her and a drop of rain wouldn’t go amiss but that looks unlikely. Hopefully it's well watered.

Roger Varian, trainer of Waliyak
She will have similar conditions to those when she ran well to be third at Royal Ascot and should run a nice race. The ground was too soft for her at Pontefract last time and hopefully she can get a bit closer to Lights On this time.

Noel Meade, trainer of Elysium
She had a bit of a hold up with a respiratory problem in the spring. We couldn't quite get her or her bloods right, but she seems to have come good now and we're happy with what she's done. We thought this would be a good option and it's nice to have her back out again. I'm sure she'll improve for whatever she does.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Indigo Girl and Kestenna
We had planned to bring Indigo Girl back in May, but she's had a few niggles, so we're bringing her back in July. She's been working nicely on the all-weather lately and this looks a nice starting point for her and she may go up in trip later on. Kestenna has a bit to find on ratings but hopefully she can gain a bit of black type.
Reporting by David Milnes

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