Can Cheltenham star Chantry House back up Marsh form over longer trip?

2.50 Aintree
Betway Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 3m1f | 5yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Irish trainers shutout the British in the Grade 1 hurdles at Cheltenham last month but Nicky Henderson was able to break the stranglehold in the top level events over fences. Shishkin was outstanding in the Arkle, but not many gave credit to his Marsh winner Chantry House.

The general consensus appears to be that the early departure of hot favourite Envoi Allen holds down the form and to a certain extent that might be true. However, Chantry House won in a good Raceform speed figure (118) and, crucially, over a trip probably shorter than ideal.

After that win, Henderson said: “We knew last year in the Supreme that Chantry House really wanted the extra half a mile, and, when he got it, it really looked like he needed another half, so you'd have to think he might be going over three miles sooner rather than later.”

The trainer is true to his word here and steps Chantry House up five furlongs in trip. So how do Henderson-trained novice chasers usually fare when they make the step up to three miles?

Nicky Henderson: steps Chantry House markedly up in tripCredit: Edward Whitaker

Since the start of 2016, Henderson has had 16 runners in novice chases over 3m-plus who were stepping up in trip after competing over shorter than 2m5f on their previous start and six of those won. That’s a 38 per cent strike-rate and a £1 bet on each yielded a profit of £15.25.

Kim Bailey attempts the same step up in trip with Espoir De Romay, but Bailey’s figures aren't anywhere near as positive. He is 0-7 with such runners in the same period. Espoir De Romay has won on good but his best form is on soft and heavy, so the ground is a concern.

Tactics should be interesting because Shan Blue, The Big Breakaway and Silver Hallmark are all likely to help force the pace. Shan Blue is one of the most fluent jumpers in training and that might help him separate himself, but will he be strong enough to hold off the finishers?

He has been campaigned over shorter on his last two starts, but his last two wins have come over three miles and this flat track will play to his strengths. Shan Blue has touched 1.36 and 2.52 on Betfair on his last two starts without winning and is likely to shorten in running.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Stepping stone to the top

Anyone looking for a future star ought to be paying close attention at 2.50pm – the last eight winners of this race include horses who have gone on to land the Betfair Chase, King George VI Chase (two different ones) and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Nicky Henderson did the Mildmay/King George double with Might Bite in 2017 and has already mentioned Kempton as the long-term target for Chantry House.

He therefore steps the promising young chaser up to three miles here after his victory in last month’s Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, where he finished strongly and certainly shaped as though 2m4f would not be the limit of his stamina.

"He's in very good form and has come out of Cheltenham really well," said the trainer, who had a one-two in the Marsh with Chantry House beating stablemate Fusil Raffles.

"It was a good performance and he jumped great so let's hope he can do it again. He has a great temperament, very level-headed."

Tizzard duo have big boots to fill

Fiddlerontheroof and The Big Breakaway have a lot to live up to as anything Colin Tizzard runs in this contest is very much one to keep an eye on.

His 2019 winner Lostintranslation took the Grade 1 Betfair Chase the following season while Native River, successful three years previously, landed the Cheltenham Gold Cup and remains arguably Britain’s best staying chaser.

Elegant Escape, third in 2018 and the only other horse the trainer has run in the last seven years, won the Welsh Grand National the following season.

Monkfish leads home the Colin Tizzard-trained duo Fiddlerontheroof and The Big Breakaway at CheltenhamCredit: Tim Goode (Getty Images)

Fiddlerontheroof and The Big Breakaway have been going close in good company this term and finished second and third behind hot favourite Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last month.

Assistant trainer Joe Tizzard said: "They both ran well at Cheltenham, especially Fiddlerontheroof.

"I don't think there's a lot between them, they were on exactly the same rating going into Cheltenham and they've both come out of it really well.

"The track will suit them and the ground won't hinder them. I'm expecting them both to run big races."

What they say

Sandy Thomson, trainer of Empire Steel
Who knows how good he is? He's done nothing wrong and this will be a good education for him and show us where we are going next season.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Espoir De Romay
I think this horse is an example of where the modern handicapping system goes wrong. He has only run in three races over fences and the horse he beat last time was subsequently turned over in an ordinary mares' handicap chase. He is handicapped as though he were a superstar, only 4lb behind a Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival winner in Chantry House. He is a very nice horse but is he that good? I probably don't think so. We'll find out on Friday, when I'll either be having an argument with the handicapper or congratulating him on his ability!

Espoir De Romay: trainer Kim Bailey is in disagreement with the handicapper over the seven-year-old's abilityCredit: David Davies (Getty Images)

Dan Skelton, trainer of Shan Blue
We're better off over three miles at this track and we rode him aggressively at Cheltenham as we weren't going there to finish second but it didn't quite work. He seems fine at home, he jumps well and we'll give it a go.

Fergal O’Brien, trainer of Silver Hallmark
His form's rock solid. He was a head behind Fiddlerontheroof at Exeter so we're looking forward to him running but he'd probably want a bit of rain.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Sporting John
Cheltenham wasn't ideal but I hope this race without too many runners will suit him. He'd probably prefer the ground softer but he'll be all right.
Reporting by David Carr

Read more previews for day two at Aintree:

2.20 Aintree: exciting novice hurdler Dusart bidding to buck the trends for Nicky Henderson

3.25 Aintree: fit and fresh Politologue 'raring to go' after Cheltenham disappointment

Graeme Rodway on why Politologue is a dual champion in all but name (Members' Club)

4.05 Aintree: King hoping long-term planning can pay off with Senior Citizen in Topham

4.40 Aintree: Bravemansgame bids to add another Grade 1 on first try over three miles

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