1.45 Newbury: the one race you can't afford to miss on Wednesday

1.45 NewburyMansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Limited Handicap Chase | 2m½f, 5yo+ | RTV

There is no ceiling rating on this novice handicap chase, which has seen smart sorts Saint Calvados (2018) and Top Gamble (2015) use this race as a stepping stone to bigger things in recent years.

The fact that it is established as a stopping point for Graded-race bound novices means it is always one to watch closely, even if this year's top weight goes off a mark of 140.

Precious Cargo carries topweight of 11st 8lb for trainer Nicky Henderson. He made a promising chasing debut at Haydock, although for most of the journey he was in a match with a clearly inferior rival so it is hard to read a great deal into the result. He jumped well besides one error and has the size to take to chasing, so the signs are mostly positive.

An early casualty in the same race was Moonlighter. He has failed to complete on two of his three runs this year, but he is the key to the race if he stays on his feet.

Moonlighter, a free-going front-runner, is the likely pace angle and he was second to Baddesley Knight at Wincanton on the one occasion he completed over fences, finishing ahead of Locker Room Talk and Rough Night.

Those three horses have run five times between them in handicaps since, yielding three wins and two seconds. Moonlighter handles soft ground and Tom Scudamore takes over in the saddle. Granted a clear round, he is bound to be up there.

There would be no real surprise winner of this race, just the other three have bigger questions to answer. Champagne Platinum did not convince with his jumping at Cheltenham and Champagne City does not often see his races out well. Vado Forte was a good third here 18 days ago, but is up 4lb and in a stronger race.
Keith Melrose

What do the stats say?

Tom Lacey has trained six winners from his last 23 runners at Newbury, operating at a 26 per cent strike-rate, and he runs Vado Forte. The trainer is in fine form with two winners from his last six starters.

Market leaders have won three of the past four runnings at odds of 5-6, 5-4 and 6-4.

Barry Geraghty has a 33 per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight (2-6) and he gets aboard Champagne Platinum, who is unbeaten at this track after taking an introductory hurdle in December 2018.

What do the trainers say?

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Precious Cargo and Champagne Platinum
Precious Cargo is good. He had his first run over fences in an uncompetitive affair, but he did it well and jumped well. He goes on soft ground. Champagne Platinum is a good horse. He won over two miles but he’ll be going further sooner or later. He took a bit of time to warm up to his jumping at Cheltenham – we schooled him this morning and he was very good. He’s a high-class horse, they both are.

Tom George, trainer of Champagne City
He was unfortunate last time as the saddle slipped, so I'm hoping we’ll see further progression as that run wasn’t a true reflection of him. I just hope he jumps well and we get a good run.

Tom Lacey, trainer of Vado Forte
He’s in good order but he needs to be stepping up to beat these horses, although the ground won’t be a concern.
Tommy Churchyard

Read The Lowdown from 8.30am daily on racingpost.com and the Racing Post app for all the day's going updates, news and tips