Prominent racer or hold-up horse? Stats show one type has a massive edge

If your reaction to David Bass's tremendous ride on First Flow on Saturday and approach to finding an angle on Trials day at Cheltenham on Saturday is essentially the same, it is a moment to pause and reflect. A crossroads has been reached. To stave off accusations of monomania, you had better put up your reasoning.

So here it is: all the evidence I have gathered suggests being on or near the front typically puts you at an appreciable advantage in races over fences, particularly in winter.

There is no QED moment, unfortunately, just a bank of evidence from varied sources, but then the statement is hardly Melrose's law to begin with.