Mastering the art of trainer form can help you beat the winter blues

It is mid-December, so you may have had your first cold of the winter by now. Maybe you are the sort of person who lurches from one to another in an endless sniffle all the way from November until March. Or, if you are a little luckier, suffering for a few days in the autumn tends to fire up your immune system for the duration.

I would not go as far as to say horses are the same – I'm no vet – but it is surely no coincidence that around this time of the jumps season stable form becomes a sharpened talking point. The campaign has moved on from the stage at which horses are being readied and a yard might be forgiven as merely slow to start. A string of lacklustre performances begins to be interpreted as a deeper malaise, whether that is 'a few runny noses' or a full-blown virus.

Both peaks and troughs can be used to a punter's advantage. For example, it is clear Ben Pauling is having a quiet spell at the moment. The longer it goes on, the more certain we can be that Espoir De Loire, who broke the trend by winning at Musselburgh on Monday, is an exciting recruit to fences.