Don't give up on this Kempton loser - there will be plenty of worse 33-1 shots running at Cheltenham

Tripoli Flyer is likely to be the shortest-priced British contender should he line up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, following his victory in the Dovecote at Kempton on Saturday. However, the Irish market-leaders have little reason for concern.

While his performance was creditable, he showed clear signs that, at this stage at least, he is likely to be significantly less effective on a left-handed track. At Kempton, he jumped right at seven of the eight hurdles, and while it’s impossible to quantify the exact cost of doing so, a repeat at Cheltenham would likely cost him between five and 12 lengths. To overcome that kind of deficit, he would need to be vastly superior to his rivals – and that is simply not the case.

Tripoli Flyer was also helped by being held up off a strong pace on Saturday. Despite taking the lead at the second-last and pulling clear to win by seven and a half lengths, his finishing effort was actually slower than his pace on the first circuit. He is now as short as 16-1 for Cheltenham but I’d struggle to be interested even if he were 50-1.