Conundrum still unresolved after Stradivarius absence, plus a 25-1 ante-post tip

Goodwood played host to a galaxy of stars last week, but Tuesday’s Goodwood Cup was arguably the weakest headline event following the scratching of Stradivarius.

The reason given was the ground, which after the first race was described as soft, heavy in places.

John Gosden has always been adamant the son of Sea The Stars is a “top-of-the-ground horse”, but the form book tells a different story.

He recorded a career-best Racing Post Rating on soft ground in last year's Gold Cup and he won the 2019 running on the same ground too.

Gosden said last week: “We made the mistake of running him on the wrong ground at Longchamp and Ascot. There’s no point making that mistake again.”

His comments beg the question: what is the “wrong ground” for Stradivarius?

Stradivarius: ran away with last year's Gold Cup on soft groundCredit: Edward Whitaker

Yes, he was beaten on heavy in the Arc (over 1m4f, a trip shorter than his optimum) and on soft in the Long Distance Cup last year.

However, even accounting for home-turn interference, he was also below his best on good to firm ground at Royal Ascot this year. Could the case be that he is simply not as good as he was, regardless of the ground?

And is his overall record on soft ground or worse (311170) sufficiently conclusive to suggest he wasn’t worth chancing against Trueshan?

Given he is now a seven-year-old, it seems unlikely he will be back next year to bid for a record-breaking fifth Goodwood Cup, and it isn’t as if losing the race would have greatly impacted his stud value given how unfashionable stayers are as stallion prospects on the Flat – just take a look at ten-furlong Group 1 winner Crystal Ocean, who is covering jumps mares.

Unlike Stradivarius’s next target, the Lonsdale Cup at York, last week’s race was a Group 1, so it is unfortunate he wasn’t given another chance to clear up this particular conundrum.

Horseracing is a game characterised by gambling and in numerous instances last week it paid off, for connections and fans.

Alcohol Free, the winner, and Snow Lantern (third), became the first three-year-old fillies to run in the Sussex Stakes since Ghanaati in 2009 (like Jeff Smith’s filly, she was also victorious in the Coronation Stakes), and the first to triumph since Marling in 1992.

Alcohol Free has already raced five times this season but the fact her future options include the 1m2½f Juddmonte International and the 6f Betfair Sprint Cup illustrates just how special she is and, indeed, just how sporting her connections are.

Alcohol Free: became the first three-year-old filly to win the Sussex Stakes since 1992Credit: Edward Whitaker

Another trainer rewarded for brave placing was Ralph Beckett, who opted to run the keen-going, free-sweating grey Angel Bleu in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes just days after his Listed defeat in the Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot.

And although he didn’t win, outsider Away He Goes gave the in-form Ismail Mohammed yard something to smile about when finishing second in the Goodwood Cup at 33-1 on just his second start over the marathon trip and his first at the top level.

Despite the European Pattern Committee’s member nations working alongside each other to avoid dilution of competition, the current racing calendar fails to consistently produce competitive, multi-dimensional Group 1s.

Therefore, when connections choose to take the plunge to race their horses boldly, we must give them due credit.

Orbaan set to hit back with big run at York

Orbaan
2.45 York, Clipper Logistics Handicap, August 19
1pt win at 25-1 with Paddy Power

Hard-luck stories are commonplace at Goodwood and there were several last week, but that doesn’t mean we can’t profit from them further down the line.

One of the most inconvenienced horses all week was Orbaan in the Golden Mile and, given his previous course-and-distance form, he looks ripe to make amends in the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting.

Orbaan: caught the eye in the Golden Mile behind MaydannyCredit: Edward Whitaker

He won a mile handicap at the track off a mark of 100 last July and then, off 4lb higher, finished strongly on the unfavoured far side of the track to grab seventh in the Clipper Logistics last year, beaten only three and three-quarter lengths by classy horses like Sir Busker and Top Rank.

After two quiet runs this season, the Listed winner (at Saint-Cloud in 2018) showed he still retains plenty of ability at Goodwood, travelling powerfully up the blockaded inside, and he wasn’t asked many questions once his chance had gone.

I doubt the handicapper will drop him from his current mark of 100 but, even if he doesn’t, that means Orbaan will be running off his last winning mark at York. Having missed out at Goodwood, he still looks well set to land one of these big mile handicaps.

It makes little sense to me that Orbaan is 25-1 given he looks sure to get (at the very least) close to the likes of Magical Morning and Golden Mile winner Maydanny, who head the market at 7-1 and 8-1.

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