Can we trust early juvenile speed? Saturday's Champagne Stakes will tell us more

It is approaching that juncture in the Flat season where the precocious juveniles are beginning to face some of their more stoutly bred counterparts, and therefore I wouldn't be surprised if there was a shift at the top of the division by the end of the season.

Saturday's Champagne Stakes at Doncaster could assist with this changing of the guard, as July Stakes and Gimcrack winner Lusail is set to face the Queen's Solario winner Reach For The Moon.

Both made their debut in May, with Lusail getting the jump on the royal runner by a fortnight, so the pair were clearly forward and uncomplicated in their work.

However, Lusail is by last year's champion first-season sire Mehmas, who retired at two and has already announced himself as an influence for early speed. Lusail's dam, Diaminda, also won over six furlongs at two and was last in Sky Lantern's 1,000 Guineas in her only start at three.

Reach For The Moon: his pedigree suggests his juvenile campaign won't be his bestCredit: Mark Cranham

Reach For The Moon represents the opposite end of the bloodstock spectrum. He is by the redoubtable Sea The Stars, who is responsible for evergreen stayer Stradivarius, Oaks winner Taghrooda, dual Derby winner Harzand and Sunday's Prix du Moulin winner Baaeed.

Golden Stream, Reach For The Moon's dam, won on her debut at two and raced until she was four. She was second in the 2009 Sandringham and went on to strike twice at Listed level and be placed in two Group 3s.

Like Sea The Stars, she also had a profitable weekend as her son Chalk Stream, a brother to Reach For The Moon, won the £75,000 1m4f Lavazza Handicap at Ascot.

Lusail has already achieved something both his sire and dam couldn't by winning over seven furlongs, but it is difficult to be confident he will train on at this stage.

While Mehmas has enjoyed Group and Listed success with three-year-olds Keeper Of Time, Magnanimous, Mehmento and Line Of Departure this summer, the best of his crop from last year have been bitterly disappointing.

Champion two-year-old Supremacy has beaten just six rivals in three races this year, Minzaal, who was last seen finishing behind that horse in last season's Middle Park, has yet to be sighted in 2021, while Method has also failed to fulfil his potential.

After his win in the Gimcrack, Richard Hannon said Lusail was "undoubtedly a Guineas horse" but I'm not yet convinced.

Lusail is bred to be a top two-year-old, but will he train on?Credit: Mark Cranham

The commercial demand for early speed isn't limited to Lusail and his sire either, as it has been one of the themes of the season.

First-season sire Ardad is in a similar mould to Mehmas. He raced at Royal Ascot (winning the Windsor Castle Stakes) before taking the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster but then failed to pull up any trees in a handful of starts at three.

He was quick to make an impact on the track and that has been replicated at stud. By the end of Royal Ascot he was the leading first-crop sire, Europe's leading sire of two-year-olds and Britain's best-ever first-crop sire by winners, wins and prize-money.

His best son, Norfolk winner Perfect Power, gave him his first Group 1 win in last month's Prix Morny and shapes like a similarly explosive sprinter.

The next few months will tell us a lot about the emerging sires in the bloodstock world.

The quest for precocious talent is a well-trodden path as it claims a quicker return on investment, but I can't help but be left wanting more.

It is far more satisfying to watch a horse build and deliver on the promise it has shown rather than prove a flash in the pan.

There is no denying A-ha's Take On Me is a catchy tune, but I'd be stumped if you asked me to name any of their other hits and Rolling Stone concurs, hailing it the greatest one-hit wonder of all time.

We can only hope this season's juveniles, and in turn their sires, don't go down that route.

Mullins' Star one to watch

Sevenna Star
3.15 Doncaster, Friday or 3.45 Leopardstown, Saturday
1pt win at 10-1

Emmet Mullins proved he was a wily operator with his handling of The Shunter during the jumps season and I was interested to see he has entered one of his horses at Doncaster this week.

Sevenna Star is a horse I have followed since he finished an eyecatching second on his debut at Sandown in 2017. He went on to win the following year's Classic Trial but career later took a curious turn.

He showed next to nothing in eight starts for John Ryan – he was gelded last January – and was then brought down on his first run for Mullins in a Killarney maiden hurdle in May.

Sevenna Star (far) one to watch now with Emmet MullinsCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

However, he showed a spark of his old ability when chasing home another former British-trained handicapper, Groveman, on his return to the Flat last month and his latest effort at Killarney under 7lb claimer Wesley Joyce indicated there were still races to be won with him – I would encourage you to watch that race back.

He is not as good as he was, but there are reasons to believe he is better than his current mark of 80 and it could be that Mullins has been aiming him at one of the big festivals.

He is entered in the Mallard Handicap (3.15 Doncaster, Friday) and the Petingo Handicap (3.45 Leopardstown, Saturday), so keep an eye on where he is declared, as if he gets into either race he won't be without a chance.

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