As finally summer blooms, so too does the Classic crop

It is an annual rite that opening shots in the guessing game are fired before the gun is properly loaded. Judgement is passed on the merit of the three-year-old crop on nothing much more than a whim.

Unless an outstanding colt emerges from the trials, this phoney war can start well before the Derby. It did so this year, when the cast assembled at Epsom apparently failed to catch the imagination. Six weeks on and the evidence remains far from conclusive, yet early skirmishes between sophomores and their elders demonstrate the three-year-olds are doing very nicely for themselves.

To this juncture, Britain, Ireland and France have staged 33 Pattern races open to horses of all ages. Seven of them did not feature a three-year-old runner, and of the remaining 26, the older horses hold a narrow verdict by 14 victories to 12. If the three-year-olds are no good, as some maintain, their elders are scarcely more distinguished.