A fool's guide to Derby pedigrees that is anything but foolproof

For one month every year, as sure as night follows day, those who bet on racing take an inordinate interest in pedigrees. That time is upon us: it’s the month when the season advanced from the 2,000 Guineas to the Derby, from the 1,000 Guineas to the Oaks, from Classics over a mile to those over a mile and a half.

We now know Churchill will not attempt to vault from one distance to the other. This comes as a surprise only to those who did not consider his pedigree once he started showing uncommon prowess as a two-year-old. Herein lies one of the most fascinating aspects of the game, not to mention an extremely valuable gauge in terms of loading expectation upon a horse, yet it only surfaces in the quest to identify the Derby winner.

The last time I saw him, Matt Chapman raised an interesting detail about Churchill. He highlighted the fact Churchill had won the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in mid-June of his two-year-old campaign, and that such horses tended to want a distance of ground as their careers unfolded.