4.05 Tipperary: the one race you cannot afford to miss on Monday

4.05 Tipperary
Schooling At Tipperary Rated Novice Chase | 2m4f | 4yo+ | RTV

Why is it interesting?

Emmet Mullins, the Cheltenham Festival-winning jockey, has made a blistering start to his training career and will try to improve his impressive strike-rate with Dolly Dancer.

Since Willie Mullins's nephew took out his licence, he has sent out 26 winners from just 116 runners, a 22 per cent success rate.

What is even more impressive is the young trainer is showing a €14.36 level-stake profit for every €1 staked on those 116 runners.

Dolly Dancer may not be the stable star, but she is a smart sort in her own right and landed her second success at Tramore in August when Brian Hayes made a miraculous recovery at the second-last to keep the partnership intact.

Hayes retains the ride on the five-year-old daughter of Yeats and he is the only jockey who has been successful on her.

Denis Hogan has his team in top form too, sending out five winners in the last fortnight, and the Cloughjordan-based trainer is double-handed with Ozzie's Way and Lady Writer.

Perhaps the fact that the trainer takes the ride on Lady Writer might be a tip in itself.

What do the stats say?

Henry de Bromhead has won this novice chase twice in the last three years with Killiney Court (2016) and Ellie Mac (2018), and this time the Knockeen-based trainer relies on recent Kilbeggan winner, Visioman.

Punters have had much the better of the argument with bookmakers in this race over the last three years. Ellie Mac (9-10) did the business last year, while Miss Eyecatcher (4-6) was successful in 2017 and Killiney Court (2-1) was a winning market leader in 2016.

What the trainers say

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Dolly Dancer
She always picks up a cheque, no matter where she goes, so hopefully she will do so again here. She ran well at Listowel last time, and that is a stiff jumping test, so hopefully that experience will stand to her here.

John Joe Walsh, trainer of Ballyegan Hero
He's in good form and he ran well the last day at Listowel, which was a good sign. It is a hot little race, and it looks very open, but I would like to think he has his chance.

Keith Clarke, trainer of Templemore Dream
He needed it badly at Roscommon last week and he will come on a ton for it. I was thrilled with him there and, Roger Loughran, who rides him at home every day, has been delighted with him since. This race looked a no-brainer to go for and he looks to have a great chance.

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