The magic number: lowdown on the key three-year-old Sprint Cup hopes

The Tin Man proved an exception to recent trends last year in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, a race that has been dominated by the Classic generation since 2014. Here are the essential stats and key three-year-old contenders for Saturday’s renewal . . .

The key stats

Four of the past five renewals have gone the way of three-year-olds.

Seven three-year-olds have filled the first three places in the last five runnings.

The last three outright three-year-old favourites have won (Dream Ahead, Quiet Reflection and Harry Angel).

The average RPR recorded by the winner since 2014 is 122.

Eight of the remaining 14 entries for the £300,000 Group 1 contest are three-year-olds, including the first four in the betting.

The key contenders

Advertise
Career highlight Commonwealth Cup
Best RPR 119, 1st Prix Maurice de Gheest, August 2019
Odds 5-2 favourite
Star rating ****

This three-time top-level winner has only finished out of the first two once in nine starts when not staying the trip in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas in May.

Martyn Meade's stable star, owned by Phoenix Thoroughbred, enhanced his reputation as a leading three-year-old sprinter with victory in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last month but needs to turn around July Cup form with Ten Sovereigns.

Advertise (white and orange) wins the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest

Ten Sovereigns
Career highlight Darley July Cup
Best RPR 125, 1st July Cup, July 2019
Odds 100-30
Star rating *****

Commonwealth Cup fourth Ten Sovereigns reversed the Royal Ascot form in emphatic style when producing a dominant display to land the July Cup at Newmarket.

Dropping to the minimum distance in the Coolmore Nunthorpe went against the Aidan O’Brien-trained sprinter, who finished sixth behind the brilliant Battaash at York, but a July Cup RPR of 125 means he sets the standard.

Khaadem
Career highlight Unibet Stewards’ Cup
RPR 119, 1st Stewards’ Cup, August 2019
Odds 9-2
Star rating ***

The Charlie Hills-trained Khaadem has yet to win at Group level but proved himself much better than handicap company when breezing to Stewards’ Cup success at Glorious Goodwood last month.

Second in the Group 3 bet365 Hackwood Stakes on his penultimate start, Khaadem is going the right way but has plenty to find with Advertise and Ten Sovereigns having finished a ten-length seventh in the Commonwealth Cup on his sole crack at Group 1 level.

Khaadem: bolted up in the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood on his most recent startCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Hello Youmzain
Career highlight Sandy Lane Stakes
Best RPR 114, 1st Sandy Lane Stakes, May 2019 & 1st Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte, October 2018
Odds 12-1
Star rating ****

Hello Youmzain is one of two three-year-olds with course-and-distance winning form and lowered the colours of Calyx when successful in the Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes at this track in May.

The dual Group 2 winner is trained by Kevin Ryan and finished a fine third in the Commonwealth Cup on his most recent start. Unlike a few of his rivals, he will arrive fresh after a 78-day break.

Forever In Dreams
Career highlight Commonwealth Cup
Best RPR 110, 2nd Commonwealth Cup, June 2019
Odds 20-1
Star rating ***

Forever In Dreams is the other three-year-old to have won over this track and trip when landing the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes on the same card that Hello Youmzain struck in the Sandy Lane.

The Aidan Fogarty-trained filly took her form to the next level when second to Advertise in the Commonwealth Cup. Her odds of 20-1 seem generous, although Gordon Lord Byron is the only Irish-trained winner since the turn of the millennium and just one filly has scored in the last ten runnings.

Hello Youmzain: course-and-distance winner is fancied by Pietro InnocenziCredit: Grossick Racing

Tipster verdict

The three-year-old who appeals most at the prices is Hello Youmzain each-way. He was most impressive when winning a Group 2 over course and distance in May. Although runner-up Calyx suffered a career-ending injury during the race, the third has since won two Group contests. A subsequent third behind Advertise at Ascot can be marked up as he came from an unpromising position and this scopey colt looks capable of improving further, with all ground seemingly coming alike.
Pietro Innocenzi

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