Later start tilts advantage away from Classic crop in pursuit of bonus points

The Tote Flat Ten To Follow competition has a new start date this year, kicking off with the Epsom Classics rather than those at Newmarket, and the impact that change has had on the competition can’t be overstated.

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Had the entry window taken place in mid-April this year as it did in 2021, then there’s every chance Emily Upjohn and Nashwa, neither of whom had even won a race at that point, would have been in the list of 500. But that pair are among numerous lightly raced and unexposed horses who have suddenly thrust themselves into the spotlight out of nowhere in the last month and how to treat this type of horse, full of promise but many totally unproven, is just one of many dilemmas the new shape of the list presents.

The later start also means that, unlike last year, there are now several two-year-olds on the shortlist, while the imminent approach of Royal Ascot means we have a firmer idea of which international superstars will be running there, hence more of those names are up for selection. On these points, my strong advice would be to exercise caution. Many two-year-olds can look potential superstars at this time of year but, come the Group 1 races in the autumn, most tend to have been overtaken by late-maturing peers, while anyone picking an international star is putting too many eggs in the Royal Ascot basket.

However, one wise strategical tweak might be to include fewer three-year-olds than in past years, given the mile Classics have been run before the start of the competition so the Classic generation have fewer opportunities left to stick to their own age group.

But as in all years, the best play is to keep it relatively simple and that means looking almost exclusively for horses with Group 1 potential, given such races make up 21 of the 23 bonus races. Of the other two bonus races, good luck to anyone trying to pick the Ayr Gold Cup winner at this stage, and while the Ebor might be slightly easier to predict – progressive stayers being rarer beasts than progressive sprinters – you’ll want one at the right end of the handicap for now so they can win one or two before York.

A Case Of You
4-year-old colt
Trained by Adrian McGuinness
Hugely progressive and confirmed himself a top-class sprinter by winning the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai this year, a second Group 1 win after last year’s Prix de l’Abbaye; should be a massive player in more top sprints.

Adayar, the Derby and King George winner, is sure to be a major force in all the top middle-distance racesCredit: Mark Cranham

Adayar
4yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Became the first horse to win the Derby and King George in the same year since Galileo 20 years earlier; disappointed twice in the autumn and ruled out of the Coronation Cup after a setback but should be a big player in top middle-distance races.

Alcohol Free
4yo filly
Andrew Balding
Three-time Group 1 heroine who beat the boys in last season’s Sussex Stakes; below best in four runs since but far from disgraced when fourth in the Lockinge last time and should be competitive in Group 1 fillies’ races.

Aldaary
4yo gelding
William Haggas
Hugely progressive miler who landed a big handicap double at Ascot last autumn and won easily on his reappearance this term; looks a potential Group 1 horse, although all five wins have come on good to soft or softer ground and Baaeed (in same ownership) is a complicating factor.

Alenquer
4yo colt
William Haggas
Smart middle-distance colt last year, winning Sandown’s Classic Trial and the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot; has been highly tried since and at last hit Group 1 target with a battling victory in Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Alpinista
5yo mare
Sir Mark Prescott
Enjoyed a fairytale campaign last season in winning all five races, the last three at Group 1 level in Germany including a win over subsequent Arc hero Torquator Tasso; further Group 1 success can’t be ruled out.

Baaeed
4yo colt
William Haggas
Unbeaten in seven races (all over a mile) after a stunning return to action in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May; had won two Group 1 races as a three-year-old in the Prix du Moulin and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes; red-hot favourite for the Queen Anne and could step up in trip afterwards.

Buckaroo
3yo colt
Joseph O’Brien
Much-improved this year, running away with a mile Listed race at the Curragh before a disappointing sixth when second favourite for Irish 2,000 Guineas; has shown he stays further with a close second in the Ballysax and should have big-race options.

Cachet
3yo filly
George Boughey
Tough and classy filly who has already enjoyed a magnificent year, winning the 1,000 Guineas and very nearly following up in the French equivalent; showed her durability at two, making the frame five times at Group/Listed level, and should be a standing dish in Group 1 fillies’ races.

Changingoftheguard was an emphatic winner of the Chester Vase to tee up a Derby attemptCredit: Edward Whitaker

Changingoftheguard
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Big improver since stepping up to middle distances this year and showed stamina is his forte with a wide-margin win in the Chester Vase, although he had the run of the race in an uncompetitive contest; might come up short in the Derby but can win more good races.

Concert Hall
3yo filly
Aidan O’Brien
Patchy form last season but has a strong middle-distance pedigree and won well at Navan first time out this year, following up with a creditable staying-on third in Irish 1,000 Guineas to book her Oaks ticket.

Coroebus
3yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Impressive winner of the 2,000 Guineas first time out this season, seeing off stablemate Native Trail with trademark turn of foot; had been hugely promising as a two-year-old and looks to have developed into champion miler material.

Desert Crown, the Derby favourite after this impressive Dante Stakes successCredit: Edward Whitaker

Desert Crown
3yo colt
Sir Michael Stoute
Stormed to the head of the Derby betting with a brilliant win in the Dante Stakes at York; had been only just ready to run there according to his trainer having suffered a small setback early in the year; much more to come after only two starts and seems sure to stay a mile and a half.

Emily Upjohn
3yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
Short-priced favourite for the Oaks after winning all three races, most recently when up in class for the Musidora Stakes at York; put some useful fillies to the sword that day and has won two races this year by more than 15 lengths combined; seems sure to get further.

Eshaada
4yo filly
Roger Varian
Very lightly raced filly who won the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot last season; not given a hard race when fifth at Newbury first time out this year; big, scopey filly with more to come in top middle-distance races.

Eydon
3yo colt
Roger Varian
Progressive colt who ran a huge race when fourth in the 2,000 Guineas, travelling strongly before just lacking speed of principals; already proven over an extra furlong, running away with the Feilden Stakes, and connections considering a Derby bid.

Gaassee
4yo colt
William Haggas
Lightly raced, progressive colt who has won his last four starts, all when favourite; kept to a moderate level last season but handled a sharp rise in class when winning at York first time out this year; should get further and could progress into an Ebor horse.

Go Bears Go
3yo colt
David Loughnane
Smart two-year-old last season, when beaten no more than a length in three Group 1 races. Got back to winning ways in a 6f Group 3 at Ascot first time out before a creditable fourth in Group 2 Sandy Lane at Haydock after a stumbling start; can be competitive in top three-year-old sprints.

Homeless Songs
3yo filly
Dermot Weld
Has long looked a very exciting filly and put a couple of disappointing runs behind her when winning at Leopardstown first time out this year; before following up with a brilliant, wide-margin win in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. Looks sure to play major role at top level through the season.

Hurricane Lane was so impressive in the St Leger he started favourite for the ArcCredit: Edward Whitaker

Hurricane Lane
4yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Three-time Group 1 winner last season in between third-place finishes in the Derby and the Arc; just run out of Arc victory late on when sent off favourite at Longchamp; looks a massive player in Group 1 races over a mile and a half.

Inspiral
3yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
Brilliant unbeaten two-year-old last season and had form of Fillies’ Mile franked when two of the beaten fillies finished first and second in the 1,000 Guineas; missed that race following a setback but still an exciting prospect, with Royal Ascot on the agenda.

Kyprios
4yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Very lightly raced colt who defied 11-month absence with a tremendous win in the Vintage Crop Stakes first time out this year before following up at 1-10 in the Saval Beg; looks a top-class staying prospect for a yard that thrives in the division.

Lord North
6yo gelding
John & Thady Gosden
Missed most of 2021 but returned in style this year, dead-heating in the Dubai Turf to add to his 2020 victory in the race (also won the Prince of Wales’s Stakes that year); close fourth in Tattersalls Gold Cup on latest start and should remain competitive in Group 1 middle-distance races.

Luxembourg
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Longtime Derby favourite who finished a solid third when taking in the 2,000 Guineas but was ruled out of Epsom after a setback; should be back later in the year and could still be a top-class middle-distance colt.

Man Of Promise
5yo gelding
Charlie Appleby
Hasn’t run in Europe since winning a 6f handicap at Newmarket in June 2020 but has since developed into a high-class sprinter in Dubai, especially when winning twice this year; third in the Al Quoz Sprint but still has champion sprinter potential.

Mangoustine
3yo filly
Mikel Delzangles
Exciting filly who has won four of her five races, including the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches first time out this year, coming out on top in a blanket finish; unlikely to stay beyond a mile, with the Coronation Stakes a likely target.

Manobo
4yo gelding
Charlie Appleby
Smart stayer who narrowly lost unbeaten record when second in the Dubai Gold Cup this year; likely to drop in trip for the Coronation Cup and should be a big player despite not have running above Listed level over the distance.

Master Of The Seas, the Earl Of Sefton winner, looks set for a season in which he can fulfil his undoubted potentialCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Master Of The Seas
4yo gelding
Charlie Appleby
Bounced back to form in winning the Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket first time out this year after a gelding operation; had finished a short-head second in last season 2,000 Guineas behind Poetic Flare before regressing; high-class on his day but patchy overall profile is a worry.

Mishriff
5yo horse
John & Thady Gosden
Three-time Group 1 winner who landed last season’s Juddmonte International by six lengths; possibly unsuited by slower ground when fourth in the Champion Stakes; should be a big factor in several Group 1 middle-distance races again.

Modern Games
3yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Hugely progressive colt who landed a fourth successive win and second Group 1 in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains first time out; should stay a mile and a quarter and likely to be a big player in the Prix du Jockey Club.

Mostahdaf
4yo colt
John & Thady Gosden
Has won six out of seven races; impressed in the Darley Stakes at Newmarket last year and returned with a smooth win in a three-runner Gordon Richards Stakes; has more to offer and could be a Group 1 horse.

Mother Earth
4yo filly
Aidan O’Brien
Tough, consistent filly who mixed it at Group 1 level throughout last season, winning the 1,000 Guineas and Prix Rothschild as well as finishing second or third five times; has come up short against colts but should remain competitive in Group 1 fillies’ races.

Nashwa (left) on course for the Oaks after landing the Fillies' Trial at NewburyCredit: Edward Whitaker

Nashwa
3yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
Promising filly who has built on debut third last year to win both starts this season, most recently when stepped up in class for a 1m2f Listed race at Newbury; has the Oaks as her target.

Nations Pride
3yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Hugely progressive and made it four wins in a row when storming home by seven lengths in a 1m2f Listed race at Newmarket in May; should get at least a mile and a half and might be supplemented for the Derby.

Native Trail
3yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Last season’s champion juvenile after winning all four races, including the National and Dewhurst Stakes; ran well when losing unbeaten record in the 2,000 Guineas, finishing second, before comfortably landing the Irish 2,000; should remain a major player in Group 1 mile races or further.

Perfect Power
3yo colt
Richard Fahey
Dual Group 1 winner last season, proving the best two-year-old sprinter with victory in the Middle Park Stakes; won the Greenham first time out this year but didn’t stay a mile when seventh in the 2,000 Guineas; looks a strong favourite for the Commonwealth Cup.

Piz Badile
3yo colt
Donnacha O’Brien
Lightly raced colt who burst into Derby contention when beating subsequent Listed winner Buckaroo in the Ballysax Stakes first time out; could be a big player at Epsom.

Prosperous Voyage
3yo filly
Ralph Beckett
Fast-finishing runner-up in the 1,000 Guineas, just failing to reel in Cachet; also placed three times in Group company last season, twice behind Inspiral, but might have more luck this year, perhaps when up in trip.

Pyledriver (right) has a repeat victory in the Coronation Cup in his sightsCredit: Edward Whitaker

Pyledriver
5yo horse
William Muir & Chris Grassick
Has developed into a top-class middle-distance performer and won the Coronation Cup last year when outbattling Al Aasy; looked unlucky not to land the Sheema Classic this year and should be a big player in the Coronation Cup and more top races.

Saffron Beach
4yo filly
Jane Chapple-Hyam
Clearcut winner of Sun Chariot Stakes to arguably stamp herself as last year’s top three-year-old filly over a mile, turning the tables on 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth to whom she finished second in the Classic; should be a big player in Group 1 fillies’ races.

Scope
4yo colt
Ralph Beckett
Unexposed stayer who won Prix Royal-Oak on very soft ground at Longchamp; fine second to Ilaraab first time out this year over a mile and a half and will be interesting in Cup races when back up to staying trips.

Sealiway
4yo colt
Francis Graffard
Has proved top class since being stepped up to middle distances last season and won the Champion Stakes at Ascot; has often come up just short at the top level, with latest Prix Ganay third following second in the Prix du Jockey Club and fifth in the Arc.

State Of Rest
4yo colt
Joseph O’Brien
Prolific at Group 1 level, winning the Prix Ganay this year to add to last year’s Saratoga Derby in the US and Cox Plate in Australia; stayed on into third in Tattersalls Gold Cup last time; likely to head down under again but has Group 1 targets in Europe first.

Stone Age
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Has been a massive improver this year and has stormed into the Derby reckoning after racing five times last year without success; hacked up in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and should relish a mile and a half.

Stradivarius
8yo horse
John & Thady Gosden
Legendary stayer who holds record for most Group wins by a European-trained horse, including three Gold Cups at Ascot and four Goodwood Cups; not quite at his best last year but did win the Lonsdale Cup and Doncaster Cup before adding the Yorkshire Cup on this season’s return.

Teona
4yo filly
Roger Varian
Lightly raced filly who made Group 1 breakthrough when surprising Snowfall in last year’s Prix Vermeille; good third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf having missed the Arc because of soft going and capable of further success in Group 1 middle-distance races.

Trueshan and Hollie Doyle after their fine victory in the Goodwood CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Trueshan
6yo gelding
Alan King
Emerged as last season’s dominant stayer in the absence of Gold Cup winner Subjectivist, winning the Goodwood Cup, Prix du Cadran and Long Distance Cup; non-runner three times due to good to firm ground but has won six out of eight races on good or good to soft.

Tuesday
3yo filly
Aidan O’Brien
Beautifully bred filly (half-sister to Minding out of dual Group 1 winner Lillie Langtry) who has made rapid strides this year, finishing third in the 1,000 Guineas and following up with a staying-on second in the Irish 1,000; should relish going up in trip.

United Nations
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Well-bred colt who made a big step forward when going up in trip for the Lingfield Derby Trial, beating Walk Of Stars; sure to see out Derby distance well and could be a St Leger horse.

With The Moonlight
3yo filly
Charlie Appleby
Massive improver when winning the Pretty Polly Stakes first time out and putting herself in the Oaks picture; a smart middle-distance prospect.

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