'It's an exercise in clutching at straws' - Paul Kealy cannot see Enable losing

Whenever you look at a race, big or small, you should always attempt to identify the favourite to see if it has any vulnerabilities to be exploited.

Are conditions right? Does the draw have any impact? How strong is the opposition? What has the preparation been like?

All are questions which need answering before you part with your money.

We already know the favourite for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as Enable is going for a record hat-trick in the race and a 13th win on the trot.

I've tried to dig holes in her claims of making history but came quite quickly to the conclusion that it's an exercise in clutching at straws.

The big worry about a high draw in a huge field was already off the table once only 12 were declared and a draw in nine really should not be a hindrance.

Urban Sea may have been the last to win from that berth in 1993, but that's a pointless stat without context. In the last ten years alone horses drawn nine have beaten 62 per cent of their rivals in the Arc and that from only four who were shorter than 28-1 in the betting.

There are only six horses shorter than 40-1 in the betting on Sunday and two of those, Japan (ten) and Ghaiyyath (12) are outside her. Move on.

Sottsass: won the French Derby because Persian King didn't stayCredit: Alan Crowhurst

On Racing Post Ratings Enable's worst run in the last two years came when winning this race last year, a shade luckily some would argue, but that was when she had an interrupted prep, arriving at Longchamp after just one run in September.

This year she has been spot on, winning the Eclipse, King George and Yorkshire Oaks.

She has won Group 1s on anything from good to firm to soft, her best RPR coming on soft when she won the Arc at Chantilly in 2017.

All the boxes are ticked then, so we have only to worry about the opposition, don't we? Do We?

I can't see it. Big French hope Sottsass won the French Derby because Persian King didn't stay, and although some were cooing over his turn of foot in the Niel, you can get some context with the knowledge that the runner-up was brushed aside readily by Enable's stablemate Terebellum the time before. Yes, I had to look her up too.

Waldgeist: will probably finish runner-up to EnableCredit: Scoopdyga.com

Japan's Grand Prix de Paris win came in one of the weakest French middle-distance Group 1s run in recent memory and hasn't worked out, apart from his Juddmonte win.

Yet at York, the subsequently retired Crystal Ocean could not have run his race and the close third and fourth have been well beaten, one of them finishing a long way behind Magical who, if she were human, could draw a detailed picture of Enable's backside from memory.

The 14-length Baden Baden winner Ghaiyyath will find it difficult dominating horses who can actually keep up, especially from stall 12, and was thumped when he did run in better company at Longchamp in April.

That leaves Waldgeist, another who has seen the back of Enable quite a lot, but who is at least on home turf in France, where his form figures read 51111411 since 2018.

I think he'll be second, but if this race were not called the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Enable would be nearer 1-3 than 8-11, wouldn't she?

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