Field sizes explained: why this weekend's numbers have warning lights flashing

There has been a lot of talk lately about small field sizes in British racing, and rightly so – the numbers in the last six months have at times been worryingly low. This weekend looks like a case in point: five declared in the Betfair Denman Chase (2.25) and just four each in the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (3.00) and Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices' Chase (2.05).

A deepening trend?

Falling field sizes and an increasing number of races with five runners or fewer became evident in the second half of last year with the number of runners in Britain per race between August and November the lowest this century.

A lengthy dry spell was blamed and numbers rose with rain in December. But January's numbers were still the lowest in four years, with all-weather racing particularly blighted.

The good

In total there are eight races in front of the ITV cameras on Saturday – five from Newbury and three from Warwick. Of those eight races just one, the Virgin Bet Warwick Castle Handicap Chase (3.15) with its declared field of 11, has outperformed the average number of runners that have gone to post over the previous ten years. The race was not run in 2012 or 2019, but the other eight renewals averaged 7.5 starters.

The opening race, Newbury's six-runner Betfair Cheltenham Roarcast Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (1.15) is bang on the average of the previous four runnings of the race.

The average

The remaining races are all underperforming, to varying degrees, compared to the previous ten years – and that is before non-runners this weekend have been taken into account, trimming the fields further.

In three of the main races, the fall is slight. The five runners in the Denman Chase is only marginally below the ten-year average of 5.4, the Kingmaker's four compares to an average of 4.56 and the Game Spirit is similar, with this year's four down on an average of 4.89.

This is generally a day that produces small fields. Just once in the last ten years has any of those races produced a field of eight runners. And yet, all three are slightly down on already low numbers. If marginal gains add up, marginal losses all contribute to a worsening situation.

The Denman Chase has generally produced small fieldsCredit: Mark Cranham

The ugly

The fields for three races on ITV on Saturday are all worse than expected.

The field of four for the Listed Virgin Bet Warwick Mares' Hurdle (1.35) is exactly two below the ten-year average, while the eight in the Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap Hurdle (1.50) at Newbury is well below the 11.44 average. The Betfair Hurdle (3.35), however, with just a field of 14, is a whopping 6.7 down on the ten-year average.

That is not to say this year's Betfair Hurdle is a complete outlier: 14 went to post in 2019 and 16 in 2017, but four of the eight races are this year at the very bottom end of their range and a further two have attracted just one more runner this year than their smallest field in the last ten years.

Too dry?

The reasons behind the fall are complex, with the make-up of the racing calendar, size of the horse population and prize-money levels among reasons cited. One thing is for sure: the ground cannot be blamed this weekend. The surfaces at Newbury and Warwick both have soft in their description.

The concern is that Saturday does not seem to be an exception: field size data for the first ten days of February is not encouraging.

The average field size of all jumps and Flat races in Britain so far this month is 7.92, the lowest since 2014 and third lowest this century.

A whopping 23.29 per cent of all races this month have been run with five runners or fewer, the biggest percentage in the last 22 years.

The warning lights are flashing.

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday