The lowdown on Wesley Ward's hot Nunthorpe favourite Bacio - and why our tipster will be 'very surprised' if he is beaten

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Bacio tops the Nunthorpe betting in his bid to provide Wesley Ward with a first win in the Group 1 sprint (3.35) at York’s Ebor festival on Friday. Is he the real deal? Read on for the lowdown on his profile and a tipster's view on his chances.

• 'England has changed my life' - meet the American who embraced fish and chips, big sprints and mushy peas - and reaped the rewards 

Nunthorpe agony

Wesley Ward has twice had to settle for second in the Nunthorpe, most memorably with Lady Aurelia in 2017.

Frankie Dettori punched the air on crossing the line aboard Lady Aurelia but the photo-finish verdict went the way of the Sir Mark Prescott-trained and Luke Morris-ridden Marsha. The winning margin was just a nose.

The juvenile Acapulco arrived on the back of a Queen Mary win at Royal Ascot in 2015 but Irad Ortiz’s mount was beaten two lengths by the Michael Dods-trained Mecca’s Angel, who followed up the next year.

Royal Ascot heroics

Bacio heads the Nunthorpe market at 3-1 and his claims are centred on his potential, given he is taking an almighty jump from a three-year-old handicap to an all-age Group 1 sprint.

He has won four of his five starts, with his defeat coming when second in a Listed contest at Santa Anita last October.

Juan Hernandez’s mount recorded a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 117 when making all in the Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot. He scored by three and three-quarter lengths although he did have the benefit of stall 31 in a race in which stalls 28-31 were responsible for four of the first six.

The average winning RPR in the Nunthorpe in the past decade is 122 – slightly skewed by Battaash’s 129 in 2019 – but improvement is nonetheless required from Bacio on this big step up in grade.

How have the three-year-olds fared?

Winter Power is the only three-year-old to have landed the Nunthorpe in the past decade. She struck for Tim Easterby in 2021.

Winter Power: Nunthorpe heroine in 2021Credit: Edward Whitaker

Arizona Blaze was a beaten favourite as a three-year-old last year, although Ain’t Nobody finished second at 100-1.

Despite just one winner since 2016, there have been seven placed three-year-olds in that period. There have been five successful three-year-olds this century.

Key quote

Wesley Ward said in a fascinating Big Read on Sunday: “He put up a big effort at Ascot but I think York could be more conducive to his style of running. He has a really high cruising speed. Anyone who goes with him will pay the price but he still seems able to kick on.

Bacio and Juan Hernandez were dominant winners of the Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal AscotCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

"From what we saw at Ascot, I think he's a Group 1 horse. Put him over five furlongs on grass anywhere in the world and I think he would be as tough as any other horse. For me, it's going to take a really good horse to beat him."

Tipster view: is Bacio the one to beat?

By Richard Birch

Bacio, so electrifying off a mark of 100 in Royal Ascot’s Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap, can take the step up to Group 1 company in his impressive stride.

There was never one moment during the 5f of that 0-105 contest where he didn’t look like winning easily and, as a lightly raced three-year-old, it’s highly likely there is further improvement to come.

Bacio appears tailor-made for the demands of York, and I’ll be very surprised if he’s beaten in what doesn’t appear a vintage renewal. The current 3-1 is most acceptable.

Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes, 3.35 York, Friday
Paddy Power: 3 Bacio, 9-2 Asfoora, 5 Rayevka, 6 American Affair, 8 Satono Reve, 12 Mission Central, Pershaada, Night Raider, Rumstar, 16 bar.

Read more . . .

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'He’s as good value as any runner this week' - why this horse can win at York's Ebor festival 

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