Can Charlie Appleby emerge from the doldrums with victory in the Dante - or will Christmas come early for Aidan O'Brien?

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Charlie Appleby is so often a reliable source of winners at this time of year, which makes his recent dry spell more striking than it would be for some other yards.

The Newmarket trainer has saddled 25 consecutive losers since Opera Ballo won the bet365 Mile at Sandown on April 24, with ten of those sent off favourite or joint-favourite. His expected winners total in that period was 6.83, so his horses have massively underperformed based on market expectations.

Looking at the last decade, there is a measurable drop in Appleby’s form from April to May, although nowhere near as significant as the change this year.

Putting aside the Covid-blighted 2020, he has had a better strike-rate in April than in May in all bar two years, with an overall monthly strike-rate of 35 per cent compared to 29 per cent. Both are higher than his already good ten-year strike-rate of 28 per cent, which testifies to how prolific he tends to be during this period.

Opera Ballo: Appleby's last winnerCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

One of those times when Appleby performed better in May than in April was last year, when he followed a 28 per cent strike-rate (10-36) with a remarkable 41 per cent (20-49).

Last month’s return (10-35) was virtually identical to 12 months ago, so the fact he’s 0-16 approaching halfway through May suggests something must be amiss.

From those 16 runners, only five have managed to better their highest Racing Post Rating – two of those were by just 2lb – with the same number running between 13lb and 30lb below their best, which is a significant underperformance.

As a result, it would be no surprise if punters took a cautious stance on Appleby’s pair in the Dante. Backers may well be keen to see how Diamond Rain fares in the Middleton Fillies’ Stakes before thinking about getting involved with King’s Trail, who could have more to offer now upped in trip.

King's Trail galloping on the Rowley MileCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

If Appleby’s runners again fail to fire, as they did in the Lingfield trials, then the Dante could well be a case of Aidan O’Brien (Christmas Day and Action) v William Haggas (Morshdi).

Action has the best form in the book on account of his Futurity Trophy second in October and would benefit from any significant rainfall, although his head carriage was quite alarming at Sandown on his reappearance last month, so maybe Christmas will come early.

The form of Christmas Day’s Ballysax win received a boost when three of those behind him fought out the finish to the Leopardstown Derby Trial on Sunday – unlike Morshdi’s form, which has taken a knock – and this big, imposing sort has the physical scope to keep improving.

Item, trained by Andrew Balding, is unexposed and could be suited by this step up in trip, although he'll need to improve, while Guildmaster created a fine impression when making a winning debut at Lingfield in December and may be seen in a better light than at Newmarket the last time now that he tackles a flatter track.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

King's Trail steps up in trip

Charlie Appleby is double-handed in the Dante Stakes, a race he won in 2021 with Hurricane Lane, who struck on just his third start and first at Group level. This year’s pair, King’s Trail and Al Zanati, arrive with more experience, including runs at Group level.

King’s Trail is the more fancied of the duo and is the ride of three-time Dante-winning jockey William Buick. The son of Sea The Stars won his first two starts before stepping into Group 1 company in the 2,000 Guineas, in which he finished ninth.

The Godolphin runner tackles more than a mile for the first time and Appleby believes middle distances could bring about further improvement.

King’s Trail is available at 66-1 for the Derby, but is still the shortest-priced of Appleby’s three entries. This contest will no doubt give a clearer indication of how serious his Epsom credentials are.

The trainer said: “We always felt that middle distances might suit King’s Trail and he has come out of the 2,000 Guineas in great shape. He travelled well at Newmarket before getting slightly caught out at the business end of the race.

"We're looking forward to seeing him stepping up in trip, and will hopefully be slightly wiser afterwards.”

Al Zanati has finished in the first two on all four starts, his CV featuring a victory in the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon at the end of his juvenile campaign. He returned this season with a second to Raaheeb in the Classic Trial at Sandown last month.

Appleby said: “Al Zanati put up a good performance to finish second at Sandown, and I feel the track at York will suit him better. He's mentally maturing with racing and should be a player based on his last run.”

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Guildmaster and Wise Prince
Guildmaster was a good winner on his only start last year and ran well under a penalty to be third at Newmarket on his return. He's come on well for that over the three weeks since, and should also be suited by the track and trip. Wise Prince won well at Nottingham last year and has taken a step forward from his comeback run at Sandown, which we expected him to do. This is a significant step up in class, but the track and trip should suit him.

Barry Mahon, racing manager to Juddmonte, owner-breeders of Item
He’s won two small races and it’s going to be a big step up, but he’s in good form and we’re ready to rock and roll. He’s grown into a big, scopey horse, and that’s why he’s taken a bit of time to come to hand in the spring. The track and trip should suit him, and we just hope he’s of this standard.

Read more York Raceday Intel:

The Dante is the final chance to stake a case for Epsom - so where is the potential Derby winner in the field?