'We haven't seen the best of her' - profiling the leading Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe contenders after huge weekend shake-up in market

The market for the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is taking shape after a weekend of trials at Kempton and Longchamp. After a shake-up in the ante-post betting, we profile the leading Arc contenders and take a look at what connections have been saying . . .

Aventure

Odds: 4-1

What's she done? Joined Minnie Hauk as favourite for the Arc after a smooth success in Sunday's Prix Vermeille. She finished second to Bluestocking in last year's Arc and is evidently well suited to the demands of Longchamp over a mile and a half.

Trainer's view: Christophe Ferland: "I had objectives and I've fulfilled them now for these magnificent silks, namely to win a Group 1 with Aventure. Now we can head to the Arc calmly. That will be an a really big day for me, for the stable, the filly and the Wertheimer brothers, but to win a Group 1 race with this filly was extremely important. 

"I made the choice to skip the Romanet and wait for the Vermeille and she was in exceptional form, so I've been very tense, hoping everything went well. She's the queen of Longchamp and she will definitely be back here in four weeks."

Minnie Hauk

Odds: 4-1

What's she done? Won the Yorkshire Oaks last month, running to a career-best Racing Post Rating of 124 in the process. She is unbeaten in her last five starts and won the Oaks at Epsom and Irish equivalent at the Curragh.

Minnie Hauk: will arrive fresh for the ArcCredit: Edward Whitaker

Trainer's view: Aidan O'Brien: "We haven't seen the best of Minnie Hauk yet. You're not going to see the best of her until the tempo is very strong all the way through a race. Physically, she's getting bigger and stronger. I thought we'd know exactly what she was at York, but I still don't know. She's relentless and she's on our Arc programme at the moment. 

"The Arc will hopefully be a strongly run race and we'll find out just how good she is. She's in the 'could be anything' category."

Croix Du Nord

Odds: 11-1

What's he done? Three-year-old colt who could be the next star to emerge from Japan. He scaled new heights when winning the Tokyo Yushun (the Japanese Derby) with authority as favourite. However, he has not raced since that appearance on June 1. 

Trainer's view: Takashi Saito, after the Japanese Derby: "Croix Du Nord is entered for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, but I think we'll decide whether he'll go after consulting with the owner and looking at his condition. Although he lost the Satsuki Sho, I think he's proven he's the best of his generation in the Derby, and he still has room to improve."

Byzantine Dream

Odds: 12-1

What's he done? Earned connections plenty when winning the valuable Red Sea Handicap on the Saudi Cup undercard in February. Narrowly missed out on the Tenno Sho in the spring but returned to action at Longchamp to beat Sosie in the Prix Foy.

Byzantine Dream: would prefer a sound surfaceCredit: Andrew Parker

Trainer's view: Tomoyasu Sakaguchi: "My first impression is that the horse was in great shape and the jockey rode a very good race. It's a wonderful victory. 

"There's more to come and I expect him to be at his best for the Arc. We've left plenty to work on as today was only his prep race.

"I think the state of the ground is something we'll have to think about. There's definitely a question mark, but the priority is to prepare the horse well between now and the Arc and we'll worry about the ground nearer the time."

Kalpana

Odds: 12-1

What's she done? Ran out an impressive winner of the Fillies & Mares Stakes on British Champions Day last year and was inserted as favourite for the Arc. She no longer holds that position after failing to win in four starts this year, although three of those came in Group 1 company. Her September Stakes defeat on Saturday was arguably the most disappointing of the lot, though.

Giavellotto beats Kalpana in the September StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Trainer's view: Andrew Balding: "We're disappointed not to win but the horse who beat us is very good. She's having a proper blow now, so hopefully that will put her spot on for what we're doing. We didn't want it to be a falsely run race and it wasn't – she had every chance and she'll come on for the run. 

"We need to discuss plans. She's in the Arc and the Fillies & Mares and it's up to where the powers that be want to go. This was a prep and the Arc was always the plan, but we'll just have to see how the fields develop."

Sosie

Odds: 12-1

What's he done? Won the Grand Prix de Paris and finished fourth in the Arc at three. Returned with two Group 1 wins over shorter trips and, after disappointing when last in the Eclipse, got back on track with respectable second in the Foy.

Connections' view: Pierre-Yves Bureau, racing manager to Wertheimer et Frere: "He's run a really good comeback. He hasn't run since July and the idea was to use this as preparation for the Arc.

"We were beaten by the rival about which we knew the least but he's shown good form in beating the others and, if all goes well, he'll be back here in four weeks."

Cualificar

Odds: 14-1

What's he done? Big springer in the Arc market after winning his trial in the Niel. Best form before that had been when chasing home Camille Pissarro in the Prix du Jockey Club.

William Buick with Cualificar after victory in the Prix Niel

Trainer's view: Andre Fabre: "That was what I was expecting. Not the circumstances of the race but, with the extra two furlongs and the softer ground, it's what I was expecting."

Alohi Alii

Odds: 20-1

What's he done? Showed useful form at home in Japan but stepped up on that when dominating last month's Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville.

Trainers' view: Hiroyasu Tanaka, speaking after the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano: "After the Satsuki Sho [2,000 Guineas] I decided with the owner that we'd take up the challenge in France and were originally aiming at the Grand Prix de Paris, but Alohi Alii was not in such good form, so we turned to this race with a view to preparing for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

"I think he could be even better over a mile and a half and I think two months is perfect timing to prepare for the Arc, given he'd been off for four months before this race."

Gezora

Odds: 20-1

What's she done? Joined Francis Graffard this season and has been progressive. Built on a Group 2 success at Longchamp in her next start at Chantilly, running on well to win the Prix de Diane. Her second behind Aventure in the Vermeille was another promising effort.

Trainer's view: Francis Graffard: "I'm delighted and she put up a great performance for her comeback run. Mickael [Barzalona] said he couldn't get on the back of Aventure turning in, but she showed a great action coming home and he's not touched her. She's a very straightforward filly and the trip clearly wasn't a problem. 

"I'll talk to the entourage but if all goes well she'll be back here for either the Arc or the Opera. My preference is for the Arc, because the fillies look strong this year and it's a wide-open race. She's won the Diane, so we've nothing to lose."

Estrange

Odds: 25-1

What's she done? Made headlines with her winning debut at Goodwood last season and has stepped up this year, winning a Group 3 and Group 2 on the way. Chased home Minnie Hauk on ground quicker than ideal for her last month.

Estrange: chased home Minnie Hauk at York last timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Trainer's view: David O'Meara following her Yorkshire Oaks second: "She's run a really good race. I'm very proud of her. She has a lot of class; how she can move up so easily in a race is a great asset. 

"I'm delighted with my filly on ground that I think isn't her optimum. We rolled the dice on ground I'd said we'd not run on. We made a collective decision and we've run on it and run well. The only two older fillies that have won this in recent years both won Arcs, Enable and Alpinista, so she's not done too badly."

Giavellotto

Odds: 33-1

What's he done? Been considered a stayer for most of his career, but showed high-class form over middle distances when winning the Hong Kong Vase last year. That seems to be the ultimate aim again despite beating Kalpana at Kempton on Saturday.

Trainer's view: Marco Botti: "Giavellotto responded really well and every time the filly [Kalpana] got to him he just found another gear and he just idles a bit in front. It was a great performance.

"Sadly, there wouldn't be many options for him in Europe. Soft ground isn't for him, so I don't see much in those couple of months before Hong Kong and we don't want to jeopardise our chances there.

"He has an entry in the Arc and I'm sure the owners will say, 'Well, we beat the favourite, why don't we take our chance?' But I think the ground would be too soft for him. I would only run him on good ground, but that's very unlikely to happen."

White Birch

Odds: 33-1

What's he done? A star for his stable. Concluded a winning run with a Group 1 success in last year's Tattersalls Gold Cup. Not been seen much since, finishing behind Los Angeles on both occasions this year. Set to run at Leopardstown on Saturday.

White Birch: still has the potential to shorten for the ArcCredit: Caroline Norris

Connections' view: George Murphy, assistant trainer: "White Birch is training very well, seems in super form and goes to Leopardstown. We couldn't be happier with him.

"We were hoping to run in the Royal Whip before Leopardstown, but the ground went against us, so we decided to skip that and the plan was then to go straight to Leopardstown. 

"The Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc has been the target, especially given, on the law of averages, you've a better chance of getting suitable ground that time of year. We don't want firm in the going description; good ground would be fine."

Los Angeles

Odds: 33-1

What's he done? The Arc has always seemed the aim this season for last year's Irish Derby winner. He capped that campaign with a third in the Arc, but has been hit and miss this year. Won the Tattersalls Gold Cup with a career-best effort, but flopped on three starts since.

Almaqam

Odds: 40-1

What's he done? Been well thought of for a while and showed why when handing a beating to Ombudsman in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown. Disappointed a touch in the York Stakes, but Prix Foy third was full of promise.

Trainer's view: Ed Walker: "I'm disappointed to be beaten but it was a really good performance. We're really happy with him. I was fretting all week about where to run, whether to go to Germany, here or the Irish Champion Stakes, but we did the right thing coming here. 

"He definitely stays the trip and we learned a lot, but I think he'll be better on softer ground. He looked like he wasn't going to stay but then he rallied again. I think it's just the ground. He's a big, heavy horse who I think needs a bit of cut to be able to let himself down properly.

"He's not been beaten far and my initial feeling is we have to roll the dice. William [Buick] said if you're going to do it, do it this year. The Champion Stakes is going to be a smoking hot race and I think he wants this trip. If the owner is happy to have a go, then I think we should."

Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Longchamp, October 5)
Paddy Power: 4 Aventure, Minnie Hauk, 10 Byzantine Dream, 11 Croix Du Nord, 12 Kalpana, Sosie, 14 Cualificar, 20 bar.

Read these next:

'She's the queen of Longchamp' - Christophe Ferland hails new Arc joint-favourite Aventure as Whirl trails in last in Vermeille 

'He's improving at the right time of the year' - William Buick sweet on latest Fabre Arc project Cualificar after Niel success 

This trial winner looks the Arc bet - but don't discount these outsiders at 20-1 and 33-1   

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