'We've seen a real change in him' - key quotes and star ratings for every horse in our 2026 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runner-by-runner guide
The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is one of the greatest Flat races of the season. Racing Post Betting editor Keith Melrose gives his assessment of the line-up for the big race at Longchamp.
Full racecard: 3.05 Longchamp: Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
1. Daryz
Keith Melrose's view: Da-rizz more like. You could hardly improve on the 12 months he's had. He won this race, then achieved a Group 1 double in the spring around 1m2f that is rare enough for any horse, let alone an Arc winner. He dotted up in his trial, and to cap it all the draw has been kind. It's 40/60 him against the 15 others and you have to say that's fair enough.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Francis Graffard, trainer: "Since the Prix Foy he had a period of recuperation after the race but we didn’t really leave him quiet because you really need to be at 100 per cent for the Arc. The last fortnight is stressful and the work last week and especially Tuesday this week are vital steps, but they’ve both gone well. He has impressed me this year, especially in the Ispahan and the Ganay. I really prefer him on good ground because he can really produce his turn of foot."
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2. Saddadd
Keith Melrose's view: Roger Varian middle-distance sorts develop at the same rate as geological strata, so do not worry that it has taken this horse 18 months to go from handicaps to winning a Group 1. That was in Germany, which provides an interesting branch line to the Arc. Torquator Tasso five years ago did the double Saddadd is trying to emulate. That horse was a shock Arc winner and Saddadd would be too.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
Roger Varian, trainer: "I think he’ll definitely take another step forward. The step required is quite a big one. He’s in as good a condition as I can have him, he’s improved since Baden-Baden and it’s only his second run over the trip. He’s a very straightforward horse with a good temperament and a very relaxed way of racing. He’s got to post a clear career best but I like a horse in these races who is on the upgrade, one whose ceiling we don’t really know."
3. Chestnut Rocket
Keith Melrose's view: There is a fairytale brewing here. This horse's Polish-born trainer, who only took out a licence in 2020, bought him a year ago and has improved him significantly. Still, he was beaten last time by Al Aasy, who was winning his first Group 2 at the age of nine. He might have been worth considering if it was one of those Arcs that required horses to skip through the mud, but it is not. Fairytales are often 200-1 shots. That tends to be the point.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
Alicja Karkosa, trainer: "Everything has gone well with his preparation. We went to the Grand Prix de Deauville, where he was second, so that we could have a good gap in order to ready him for the Arc. He’s given us no reason not to go and I hope he can achieve a decent finishing position on Sunday."
4. Admire Terra
Keith Melrose's view: Japanese horsemen are desperate to win the Arc. The problem is that they rarely get the weather for it, as their races are often run on much quicker ground. The ground is right this year, but the horses are not. At least that's the received wisdom. Croix Du Nord went off single-figure odds in 2025, beating Daryz on the way, and the form in Japan suggests he is only just the best of the crop this year. This horse ran him to half a length in May, having had a tougher trip. He has a top local jockey, too. If you want to swing for the fences, this grey should be on your list.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yasuo Tomomichi, trainer: "The Arc is such a hard race that running in a prep has not proved to be the right solution for Japanese horses, who are not used to the French environment. So I have tried to do most of the work at home, and he ran in the Sapporo Kinen in August, before continuing his preparation in Japan. This year I really looked for a horse I thought could adapt to Longchamp and in our stable, Admire Terra was the best candidate on that score."
5. Meisho Tabaru
Keith Melrose's view: The second Japanese runner in the field, and this one beat Croix Du Nord in June. He had the run of the race, though, and whether he will get that here as a prominent racer and occasional front-runner in stall 13 is doubtful. He is half the price of Admire Terra because of his two Group 1s and maybe a bit of Yutaka Take riding. I'm not sure either is a relative advantage.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
Mamoru Ishibashi, trainer: "For his final gallop this week I felt he had become more used to his surroundings and he went very well. I could see that he was switched on and I thought he moved really well on the turf, so I was really pleased. Usually we leave his races quite well spaced out and we decided there would be no issue in going straight from the Takarazuka Kinen to the Arc."
What makes Daryz a champion? Watch our short film about last year's Arc hero as he is prepared for a second tilt at Europe's greatest Flat race. Our cameras have been over to France to film him in his work and to seek insights from those around him, including trainer Francis Graffard, jockey Mickael Barzalona and staff at the Aga Khan Studs who helped raise him from birth.
WATCH: Daryz: The Inheritance
The Big Read: the incredible inside story of the horse born to win an Arc (and maybe two)
6. Arrow Eagle
Keith Melrose's view: Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget's list of big-race wins would reach the floor, and he has had the best Arc winner of the last decade in Ace Impact. This will be his last-ever runner. Arrow Eagle ran above himself to finish sixth in last year's Arc, then won the Prix Royal-Oak, but that was all in softer ground. 'Outrunning his odds', a euphemistic term for outsiders running well without rewarding each-way backers, seems about the best he can hope for again.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
7. Bay City Roller
Keith Melrose's view: Named after the proto-boy band, an export even Scotland is sheepish about celebrating, and the last confirmed runner this year because his trainer feared the ground would not be soft enough. The rain and all manner of other things were in his favour when he won the Coronation Cup by half the track at Epsom in June. He might be better than a 40-1 shot on his day. Ground, draw, Daryz toying with him four weeks ago: take your pick of reasons why this is unlikely to be his day.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
George Scott, trainer: "He’s had a very good preparation and Oisin [Murphy] was particularly taken with his piece of work on the racecourse last week. He’s a horse that thrives on racing and we’ve never felt a race has left its mark on him. We’re happy that this is probably the first race of an autumn campaign for him and hopefully he’ll jump clean, get himself a nice position and try his hardest. He’s an admirable and tough horse and he deserves to take his chance."
8. Minnie Hauk
Keith Melrose's view: Came miles clear with Daryz last year. That was her first defeat since her debut and it seemed to break the spell. Her Racing Post Ratings to that point went 78, 84, 99, 120, 116, 124, 125. Since then: 111, 113, 104, 122, 95, 116. Backing her needs some faith in the idea that this has all been a grand plan, the type Aidan O'Brien rarely bothers himself with as he prefers to win races rather than play games.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
Aidan O'Brien, trainer: "Minnie Hauk has had problems with corns all year but seems to be in good form and has a nice enough draw so we're looking forward to seeing her run."
9. Kalpana
Keith Melrose's view: This could be my most controversial opinion on this year's Arc. Kalpana finished seventh last year at 16-1 and I don't think she's improved. Beating 2026 Calandagan, like she did in the King George, is surely no better than finishing a length behind 2025 Calandagan, which she did in last year's King George. On everything else, you would not have her as second-favourite for all but the weakest Arcs. She is at least better drawn than last time.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Barry Mahon, Juddmonte's racing manager: "I think her draw in six is okay. Historically it has an okay record, with a couple of winners coming out of it. It's definitely doable from there, we just need a bit of luck in running. The figures tell you that she's as good as ever. She ran okay there last year but it was probably her worst run to date. Hopefully we'll get a different trip this time and she'll run a little bit better. She gives her all every time and never lets us down, so we have to be confident that Sunday will go well."
10. Friendly Soul
Keith Melrose's view: A bit like Kalpana, this mare has form figures that are doing the work of the most flattering Instagram filters. There was little depth to her Opera win on this card last year, Diamond Necklace put her in her place in the Nassau and she nicked the Vermeille. Shy of doing similar in a race that admittedly lacks for pace angles, it'll be minor money at best on Sunday.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Thady Gosden, joint-trainer: "She’s taken a step forward with every run this year, most recently in the Vermeille. Coming back to the same course and distance, we obviously know she handles the track, and she won the Opera there as well. She seems to have come forward again for her run in the Vermeille and goes into the race in good form. We’ve been fortunate with the draw in stall seven and hopefully James [Doyle] can secure a good position from there."
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11. Varandir
Keith Melrose's view: They have gone out of fashion, but if like me you came of punting age in the mid-2000s, you will be twice shy about these late-blooming, French-trained three-year-olds who have a bit to find on form. This horse debuted in April and was still learning in the summer. He could not pick up the bridle in his trial for the Grand Prix de Paris, then on the big day he could not put it down. Looked a bit more professional in the Prix Niel, so you would expect another jump forward. An acknowledged danger who I am unlikely to back. They have an annoyingly good record in plenty of races.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Francis Graffard, trainer: "We saw a real change in him over the summer. The horse became more supple physically and mentally, and I think he is better now. He has really progressed. I went into the Prix Niel with greater confidence in the horse, knowing that he had really improved, and he confirmed that in the Niel, which he won very well. In conclusion, he is a three-year-old who has just won one of the trials for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and who is still improving."
12. Benvenuto Cellini
Keith Melrose's view: Graeme Rodway calls his ilk 'Ballydoyle clones', a reference to Aidan O'Brien's seemingly endless supply of doughty 1m4f horses who can run to marks in the mid-120s. Ground his way to the Irish Derby, then had his limitations exposed a bit in the King George and Niel, neither of which had the relentless gallop that seems to suit him. Ryan Moore rides, which has rightly been taken as a positive, but stall one is only a good draw for big tankers like him if you take the race by the scruff of the neck.
Star rating: ⭐⭐
Aidan O'Brien, trainer: "Benvenuto Cellini is in good form. He ran a big race in the King George and Ryan felt there could be more to come from him. He went to his trial and he was a bit disappointing but they didn't follow the pacemaker and he came back a bit under the weather, like most of our horses were at that time. Everything has gone well since then. He has a nice draw, is a straightforward horse and is the highest-rated of ours."
13. Bright Light
Keith Melrose's view: How do you fancy owning an Arc runner? This lad is your chance, at least in theory. He will be sold at the Arqana Arc Sale on Saturday evening. The winning bidder will be an Arc owner. Not an Arc-winning owner, though. This horse is not bred to be much and has not won since his debut, although he has placed in a couple of Group 1s. Struggles to appeal even compared with the other 100-1 shots.
Star rating: ⭐
Andreas Suborics, trainer: "His preparation has been fine and he looks well in the mornings. He’s run some good races, although not one piece of his form is good enough for him to run in the first three or four in the Arc. But I know he is better than his form shows. The last twice the ground was really hard and at Baden-Baden he was not slick out of the gates, so he had to come from last. I’m sure he’s better than this, the rain from Wednesday will help and I think the long straight will as well. With another 50 yards in Berlin I think he would have beaten Tiffany. I’m sure he’s still improving."
14. Maltese Cross
Keith Melrose's view: Trainers can give off vibes without saying anything, and there has always been the faint sense that William Haggas put this horse on Arc-bound rails from the start. Bar his second in a messy Derby it has all gone to plan, too. His Group 1 win here was probably his best effort, despite what the ratings say, as they don't allow for his troubled passage. He might get another one of those from stall 11, mind you.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
William Haggas, trainer: "I think he has improved physically. He is not particularly spectacular at home, so he is quite difficult to assess, but his work has been satisfactory. We took him to a racecourse about ten days ago. He worked well without overexerting himself, and I was very pleased with him. What I like about him is that every one of his races this year has been better than the one before. And I think that last time at York he probably produced his best performance, certainly from a ratings point of view."
15. Thundering On
Keith Melrose's view: I can understand why you might be lukewarm. The bare form of the Oaks is garbage, and she's been beaten in a Group 1 (reportedly coughing afterwards) and won a Group 2 since. Respect the Good Horse Alarm, though, which was blaring at Epsom and struck up again when she did everything wrong and still won easily last time. With her change of gear, from a favourable draw and with an Arc-winning jockey on her back, I would not be at all surprised to hear commentators yelling her name near the finish.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Joseph O'Brien, trainer: "She's had a good preparation and we're obviously very happy with the draw so we're looking forward to it."
16. Diamond Necklace
Keith Melrose's view: Only Aventure, who finished second in the 2024 Arc, has ever beaten her. What is more pertinent is who she has beaten. She has won four Group 1s, but in those races there has been just one other Group 1 winner (Friendly Soul) and a surprisingly short list of other Group-race winners. There are 11 in this race, and she'll have to beat them all from her draw in another arrondissement.
Star rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Aidan O'Brien, trainer: "Diamond Necklace is in good form but it does look like a tough draw."
2026 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 1-2-3-4 prediction
1. Daryz
2. Thundering On
3. Maltese Cross
4. Admire Terra
Read these next:
2026 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp: the runners, the odds, the verdict
Maltese Cross fans look away - history shows that the Arc draw could hardly have been worse
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Published on inPrix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Last updated
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