Ground conditions unchanged at Aintree with more showers expected - plus how should punters approach the opening day?

The final significant bout of rain before this year's Grand National meeting fell at the track on Wednesday to leave the National course remaining heavy, soft in places ahead of the opening day. 

Following 9.2mm of rain on Tuesday afternoon, conditions remained steady overnight before 3.8mm fell at Aintree on Wednesday, leaving the Mildmay course soft, heavy in places. 

Further showers are expected overnight before the opening day, which features the William Hill Bowl Chase and Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase.

"We've had 3.8mm today and could still get a little bit more overnight," said clerk of the course Sulekha Varma on Wednesday afternoon. "I'll walk the National course again today but I don't think there will be any change as it's already pretty soft. After that, it still looks largely dry over the next three days. There might be a few showers but there's nothing significant in the forecast at the moment."

Forecasts for Friday and Saturday suggest a maximum of 2mm of rain across both days but Varma does not expect the National course to revert to soft conditions unless the track receives a sustained dry spell.

She added: "If we get a nice dry period and it doesn't rain overnight then we might go back to soft, heavy in places on the National course, but it would need to stay dry for a good 12 to 18 hours, which I'm just not convinced it will right now."

What punters should look out for on Thursday

The Foxhunters' Chase should give a good idea as to the state of ground on the National course. A time of around 5min 50sec would suggest soft conditions. Anything close to – or more than – 6min would point to the going being more like heavy.

In 2001, when Red Marauder won the National on barely raceable ground, Gunner Welburn had won the Foxhunters' two days earlier on a surface officially described as soft. But it had rained for a couple of hours before racing and the time was 6min 12.60sec. The Foxhunters' has not been run in over six minutes since then. 

The opener should prove a guide for conditions on the Mildmay chase course. Something like 5min 16sec would suggest soft, as long as the race is not slowly run, and anything more than that will point to just how testing it is.

Pace will obviously be a factor in all of these races but if they clock around 4min 20sec for the Juvenile Hurdle, and it's not falsely run, that would point to deep conditions. The hurdles course usually copes best with the wet weather.
Ron Wood

Read more: 

Who will win the 2024 Grand National based on previous trends?  

Confirmed runners and riders for the four Grade 1 races on the opening day of Aintree's Grand National meeting 

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