Breeders' Cup Classic: can Flightline confirm himself as best since Secretariat?

Saturday: 9.40 Keeneland
Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) | 1m2f | 3yo+ | ITV4/Sky/RTV

The Breeders' Cup Classic is a historic event this year because it is the one and only chance we will get to see if Flightline can confirm his widely heralded appointment as the best dirt horse since Secretariat, who raced some 50 years ago.

It was known before the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in early September that Flightline was extremely good. He was already ante-post favourite for the Breeders' Cup Classic despite never having raced over a mile and a quarter. What he had done was never let a rival within six lengths of him in his four previous starts, which included a couple of Grade 1s.

It is hard to adequately describe the Pacific Classic performance without watching it. Flightline went wide throughout, put in a series of fractions that sprinters would do well to maintain, and from half a mile out breezed away from, among others, the Dubai World Cup winner to go in by 19 and a quarter lengths, eased down.

Handicappers struggle to pin down a performance like that, but they all agree. His Racing Post Rating of 140 is second only to Frankel, by 3lb. Timeform ratings have a similar margin between the two horses. Flightline's Beyer speed figure, 129, is the fourth-highest of all time.

Andrew Beyer, whose speed figures carry huge weight in the States, was not active in Secretariat's day, but he has put a putative figure of 139 on that horse's Belmont win. This is the frontier that Flightline can work towards in the Classic.

The opposition might give him the opportunity to post another monstrous figure. Epicenter was second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and put up his own big figure (129 RPR) when winning the Travers in August, which along with the Pacific Classic is the other major late-summer prize over 1m2f.

Life Is Good is eight from ten in his career, has won four Grade 1s and posted the same amount of performances rated 129 or higher. Even most of the five other horses in the race, who would rightfully go down as shock winners, have mid-120s performances to their name.

Remember that handicappers had to put Country Grammer 22lb below his peak in the Pacific Classic in order to avoid Flightline breaking the scale. If he wins by the yawning margin he normally puts into his rivals, in this deep a field, the 2022 Breeders' Cup Classic could forge a similar legend to Secretariat's Belmont.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'One of the best races ever run by a US horse'

"Is there anything at all that concerns you for raceday?" trainer John Sadler was asked this week as the talk began to centre on Flightline's tilt at the Breeders' Cup Classic. "No," was the short answer, decisively delivered.

Sadler is in danger of leaving himself with no explanations to offer if the unexpected happens and his star is beaten. Everything has gone smoothly, he reports. "I've got the horse well prepared and he's a top horse.

"I've said that his performance in the Pacific Classic is one of the best races ever run by an American racehorse in any generation.

"He's very fast and he can carry it. The standard is, you think of a horse that's really fast, that he won't be able to go further. This horse is fast and he's able to carry it over the Classic distance.

"I think it'll be fine at Keeneland. This track reminds me a little bit of Del Mar. You have a little deeper surface in California, this might be a little firmer.

"Those are top horses, I've watched them run all year. It's a top-class field and we respect all of them."

What they say

Amelia Green, assistant trainer of Life Is Good and Happy Saver
Life Is Good has always broke with gate speed. That's his running style, that's what he's happy doing. He's training great, he always does. It's a track that favours speed, so I think that plays to our advantage. Happy Saver is obviously going to be one of the horses that's sitting further back and if the pace is extremely hot he'll be closing late.

Steve Asmussen, trainer of Epicenter
He's a fabulous three-year-old and I think he has continuously gotten stronger as the year's went along. He's put in some excellent work. His confidence level is exactly where we want it, coming off the victory in the Travers.

Bill Mott, trainer of Olympiad
He's maintained his form throughout the year. You hope he's got enough fire in the tank to give you one more. The best-case scenario is if Life Is Good and Flightline go out there, ding-donging on the front end and take a little out of each other and we'll probably be sitting in behind them.

Eric Reed, trainer of Rich Strike
He's trained exceptionally well the whole time he's been here and he's probably as sharp as I've ever had him. I know he's about to run probably the race of his life. He's truly had a good year, except for the Belmont, when I made a mistake in my instructions to the rider. I put him on the outside for the first time, he didn't like it, he was disoriented in the race and I think it's why he fatigued. The next two starts, he's ran on the outside and ran really well and almost won. So it may have been something that changed his career in a good way.
Reporting by Chris Cook

Saturday's Breeders' Cup previews:

4.29 Keeneland: 'She must have every chance' - can Highfield Princess see off Golden Pal and co?

5.50 Keeneland: 'She pretty well handles anything' - favourite Nashwa has John Gosden excited

7.10 Keeneland: 'A worthy favourite' - Charlie Appleby bullish as Modern Games returns to the US

8.40: Can Appleby make it two in a row and continue European domination in the Turf?

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