Who will win the 2026 Grand National based on previous trends?
Key punting pointers for the big race at Aintree on Saturday
Jump racing's most famous contest, the Randox Grand National (4.00), takes place on Saturday. We've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help you find the winner.
Take on the class of 2025
Last year Nick Rockett beat I Am Maximus with Grangeclare West and Iroko third and fourth. All four feature prominently in the betting and yet the trends do not bode well.
Tiger Roll was the first dual winner since Red Rum and it’s asking a lot for lightning to strike twice any time soon.
Between their triumphs in 1974 and 2019, no fewer than 24 horses failed to defend the crown. The last four have suffered the same fate. I Am Maximus did threaten, but placed horses from the year before are always opposable when Amberleigh House in 2004 is the only one this century to have unearthed the necessary improvement.
It is hugely significant that 24 of the last 30 National winners were making their debuts in the race.
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Weight worries on the wane
This is one trend that is definitely on the move. Trusting any horse above the 11st barrier was deemed madness not that long ago.
Hedgehunter in 2005 became the first winner above this threshold since Corbiere 22 years earlier, yet his feat has since been emulated by Don’t Push It, Neptune Collonges, Many Clouds, Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett.
In the two years since the field was reduced to 34 runners, only one horse has finished in the first four with less than 11st. That was Iroko off 10st 11lb 12 months ago.
The festival factor
It is forever a dilemma whether to trust Cheltenham form at Aintree or side with the ‘fresh is best’ policy.
While it is true that eight of the last 18 winners had competed at Prestbury Park in March, it remains a risky approach backing horses in the National on the strength of competitive performances at the festival.
Tiger Roll twice won the cross-country race en route to Aintree glory and Corach Rambler was following up his victory in the Ultima, in which Johnnywho repelled Jagwar in last month’s edition with Iroko down the field. However, Seagram in 1991 and Corach Rambler three years ago are the only other Cheltenham heroes to have won the National since 1961.
Jagwar and Iroko can take some comfort that Bindaree and Noble Yeats were beaten in that same race prior to their Aintree heroics.
Haiti Couleurs is the other high-profile Cheltenham horse having pulled up in the Gold Cup.
He would be only the sixth winner to emerge from that race in 47 years and the last was Many Clouds, who finished sixth at Cheltenham.
Course form no necessity
Experience of the famous fences is never frowned upon, yet it brings no great advantage these days.
Rarely do horses win after contesting the race before, while the Topham and Becher Chases aren’t great guides. The Topham has delivered only three winners since 2002, while only Amberleigh House and Silver Birch won the Becher.
However, contenders should have proven themselves in high-class staying handicaps, therefore bringing other Nationals into the equation.
The Welsh version won by Haiti Couleurs is traditionally strong having produced nine winners from Corbiere to Mon Mome, and the Irish equivalent is a growing force too.
It never paid to take stamina on trust but this another trend threatened by the new-look National.
There have been only three winners without successful form at 3m+ since Gay Trip in 1970, yet that trio have come in the last nine renewals courtesy of Rule The World, Minella Times and Noble Yeats.
Furthermore, when bearing in mind that Aintree takes a lot less jumping nowadays, lightly raced chasers are coming to the fore.
Only three winners since Miinnehoma had raced less than ten times over fences and they have come in the last three years.
Grand National 2026 verdict: who fits the key trends?
Modern-day Grand Nationals are a different beast to the ones of old.
Until recently the weight trend appeared to be holding its own but seven of the first eight in the two runnings confined to 34 starters carried at least 11st 2lb. The smaller field combined with the softer fences is bringing class acts to the fore.
It could still pay to see beyond last year’s principals and instead focus on relatively young, classy chasers with relatively low mileage on the clock. And if Irish trained, then all the better, as the visitors have captured seven of the last nine runnings.
The two against the field are both Willie Mullins horses, with Captain Cody beneath the 11st threshold and Lecky Watson above it.
The former is a Scottish National winner who has been trained for the race and forget his no-show in the influential Bobbyjo Chase last time as heavy ground was no good to him. It takes an unforgiving nature to trust Lecky Watson who has achieved next to nothing this season.
However, he was a Grade 1-winning novice, and second-season chasers have a terrific record. This marathon trip could be right up his street.
Read more . . .
Who are the Cheltenham Festival winners bidding for Grand National glory? They include a 100-1 shot
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