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Derby festival

Who will benefit from Epsom's deluge in the Derby - and who won't?

Rain started to fall at Epsom on Saturday morning
Epsom: going is good to soft on the Derby course
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The rain has been persistent throughout the week at Epsom, with the Derby course going easing to good to soft on Saturday and rain continuing to fall.

Which horses could be suited by the juice in the ground, and whose chances may be hindered? We've taken a look.


Those who will love it

The major Betfred Derby contender who will thrive with some ease in the ground is Pierre Bonnard, given he has already shown his brilliance in testing conditions.

He may have been beaten in his two starts this year, including narrowly in the Leopardstown Derby Trial last time, but he'll be the only Group 1 winner in the line-up.

That came on ground officially described as very soft in last season's Criterium de Saint-Cloud, when he was a two-length winner. He recorded a career-best Racing Post Rating of 110 that day.

Pierre Bonnard: enters Derby consideration after his win in the Zetland Stakes
Pierre Bonnard: won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on very soft groundCredit: Edward Whitaker

Two of his Aidan O'Brien-trained stablemates, Action and Christmas Day, would not mind some give in the ground. 

Action was beaten only half a length in the Futurity Trophy on heavy ground, while Christmas Day's three wins, including two at Group 3 level, have come on heavy, yielding and good to yielding.

Outside of the Ballydoyle contenders, the rain could suit James J Braddock. The Leopardstown Derby Trial winner won his maiden by six lengths on heavy ground.

Among the British contingent, narrow Lingfield Derby Trial runner-up Bay Of Brilliance broke his maiden on soft ground at Goodwood in September, before bolting up at Redcar on good to soft a month later.


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Those who may not want rain

Any further rain could cast some doubt around O'Brien's main Derby hope Benvenuto Cellini

The 7-4 favourite may have won his Killarney maiden on ground described as yielding to soft, but he floundered when a well-held third in the Futurity Trophy on heavy at Doncaster in October.

O'Brien said after that run: "Christophe [Soumillon, jockey] said he got stuck in the ground. He's a very good mover."

His fine Chester Vase victory came on ground described as good, but it was quickening all the time at Chester that day.

Benvenuto Cellini: easy Chester Vase winner
Benvenuto Cellini: won the Chester Vase on good ground this monthCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Britain's main hope, Maltese Cross, finished a narrow second on his debut on soft ground, but has taken his form to a new level on quicker. His Lingfield Derby Trial win on good to firm earned him a career-best RPR of 110.

The Derby unknowns

The changing conditions could pose a new question for impressive Dante Stakes winner Item.

Juddmonte's homebred won well at York on good ground, while last season's Bath novice win came on good to firm. His other outing came on the all-weather, so anything softer than good would represent uncharted territory.

Item: landed the Dante Stakes for the in-form Andrew Balding
Item: has not been tested on turf conditions easier than goodCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Newmarket Stakes winner Ancient Egypt has tackled nothing other than quick ground. His four starts and three wins have come on good to firm.  


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