Ranked: which Derby winners were rated worse than Christmas Day? And should we expect him to go on to better things?

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Christmas Day has been rated a poor Derby winner by both Racing Post Ratings and the BHA's official handicapper, but where does he rank against others to have conquered Epsom's famous race?

RPRs began in 1988 and while Christmas Day is towards the bottom of the rankings, he is not rated the worst Derby winner in that 38-year timeframe.

Christmas Day rated one of the worst Derby winners in recent years

122: Lambourn and Masar

Two fairly recent winners posted a slightly better effort in the Derby according to RPRs.

Masar took a step forward from his third in the 2,000 Guineas to win by a length and a half from Dee Ex Bee in 2018. An injury curtailed his season and he only had two more starts when he failed to show the same spark.

Lazy Griff (centre) finished a 50-1 second to Lambourn in the Derby

Lambourn made most to win last year's DerbyCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/ratings)

Last year's winner Lambourn was not the Ballydoyle first string according to the betting but made most under Wayne Lordan. He has won twice since, taking the Irish Derby and last month's Huxley Stakes, but has not matched his Derby effort on RPRs.

121: A seven-way tie!

Christmas Day has plenty of company as he has joined six other winners in being allotted an RPR of 121.

Like Christmas Day, three of the cohort were trained by Aidan O'Brien and not considered, at least in the betting, to be his best chance of success at Epsom.

Serpentine (2020) and Wings Of Eagles (2017) were significantly bigger prices at 25-1 and 40-1, while Ruler Of The World (2013) went off the same price as Christmas Day at 7-1.

Pour Moi, often remembered for winning jockey Mickael Barzalona crossing the line standing fully upright in his irons in 2011, and two trained in Newmarket, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Kris Kin (2003) and the William Haggas-trained Shaamit (1996) were the others rated 121 on RPRs.

119: Anthony Van Dyck

A battle-hardened contender for Epsom on account of seven runs as a juvenile, Anthony Van Dyck stepped forward from his return win in the Lingfield Derby Trial to win the main event at Epsom under Seamie Heffernan.

Anthony Van Dyck (far side) got up in a bunched finish to the 2019 DerbyCredit: Mark Cranham

He continued the recurring theme of this list in not being O'Brien's number one fancy, making the most of an open Derby to prevail by a half-length from Madhmoon, with the winner's stablemates occupying third to sixth.

The son of Galileo only won once from ten further outings and was fatally injured in the following year's Melbourne Cup.

118: Sir Percy

Bottom of the rankings is the Marcus Tregoning-trained Sir Percy, who won the 2006 Derby under Martin Dwyer.

Unbeaten in four starts as a juvenile, the Dewhurst winner finished second in the 2,000 Guineas and then coped with going up in trip by four furlongs at Epsom to get up by a short head from 66-1 chance Dragon Dancer in a bunched finish. It was a fitting conclusion to a Classic run at an unusually steady pace, according to Racing Post analysis at the time.

Should we expect Christmas Day to improve?

O'Brien has indicated Christmas Day is likely to appear next at the Curragh in the Irish Derby, but should we expect to see improvement from the son of Camelot?

The record of Derby winners rated 122 or lower on RPRs is poor. Those on this list have won just five of their subsequent 63 starts, with Lambourn (two from five), Ruler Of The World (one from eight), Anthony Van Dyck (one from ten) and Serpentine (one from 27) getting on the scoresheet after their Epsom heroics.

Sir Percy, Anthony Van Dyck, Ruler Of The World, Kris Kin and Shaamit did all improve on their RPR figure achieved at Epsom, with many of them doing so in defeat in the likes of the King George and Champion Stakes.

And then there is Pour Moi, who never raced again due to a leg injury.

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