FeaturePower Rankings

How has a dramatic Dante affected our power rankings for the Derby?

Four of the Racing Post's best judges assess the Derby hopefuls following this week's trials

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Trials for the Betfred Derby, one of the most famous races in the British calendar, come thick and fast through May. At every twist and turn, our top team of analysts will keep you on top of who's hot and who's not ahead of the world's most famous Classic at Epsom on June 6.

The rankings are reached by an amalgamation of the views of our four experts, Keith Melrose, Graeme Rodway, Robbie Wilders and Harry Wilson.

Here are the latest rankings, after the last of the major trials, the Dante Stakes at York.


1. Benvenuto Cellini (-)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Chester Vase, May 6
Likeliest next race: Betfred Derby, June 6

While Constitution River impressed more at Chester, Benvenuto Cellini still won his race like the sort of horse that Aidan O'Brien might build the Derby around. When Benvenuto Cellini won the Chester Vase, stablemate Proposition ensured a fair gallop that played into the hands of this long-striding sort.

If he goes to Epsom, expect similar treatment. While Benvenuto Cellini is by Frankel out of a high-class miler, the thinking is seemingly that he needs a good pace to run at, even over middle distances. He still has a bit to find on form, although Chester was not quite as well-run as the visual impressions would have you believe, so there is clearly potential for more to come.

He's the Ballydoyle number one and that's good enough for us.

Watch Benvenuto Cellini's win in the Chester Vase

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Benvenuto Cellini16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

2. Water To Wine (-)

John & Thady Gosden
Last race: Maiden, Newbury, April 18
Next race: Cocked Hat Stakes, Goodwood, May 23

It may seem bold to keep Water To Wine so high up after so many other clues have been presented, but the Derby trials as a whole have been somewhat muddy and there remains room for a late entrant to the party.

Couple a fast finish (he ran the last two furlongs in 23.25 seconds) with one of the fastest times on the card on Greenham day, and throw in the observation that none of the bluebloods he faced could do anything remotely similar. The good horse alarm was ringing in our ears for days after Water To Wine won on his debut last month.

He has been entered in the Derby at the second stage at a cost of £14,000. A top-ten finish would more than recoup that, which would be trivial. The main concern is whether he will get to Epsom at all. He missed the Chester Vase and his likely Derby prep, Goodwood's Cocked Hat, is a famously late entry point. Let's hope he makes it.

Watch Water To Wine's impressive winning debut

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Water To Wine16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

3. Constitution River (-)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Dee Stakes, Chester, May 7
Next race: Betfred Derby

Aidan O'Brien thinks that Ryan Moore will have a hard choice between Benvenuto Cellini and Constitution River should they both turn up at Epsom, and it's not difficult to see why.  

If all you had to go off were their performances at Chester last week, we might have made Constitution River top of the Derby pile – which is where he went briefly on Monday after O'Brien's comments, tempered by a market drift which has settled him back down to third spot.

On the clock, he was more impressive in winning the Dee Stakes than Benvenuto Cellini was in the Chester Vase. He ran faster than any horse in the history of that race, and did it off a fast finish, looking like he could have gone round again.

The recent history of the Derby is strewn with examples of the vibes from Ballydoyle being as important as anything you see on the track and Benvenuto Cellini, who won the more fashionable trial, has the aura of being their number one. That remains the case after Monday's news, but Constitution River is still feared hugely.

Whether Moore will have to make the choice at all is the question that everyone wants answering. Doubts have been raised about Constitution River's stamina for Epsom, and he could go to Chantilly instead. It is true that he might easily become this season's Delacroix but, to coin a phrase from John Gosden, we'd love to see O'Brien roll the big dice with Constitution River. 

Watch Constitution River's speedy Dee Stakes success

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Constitution River16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

4. Item (8)

Andrew Balding
Last race: Dante Stakes, York, May 14
Next race: Betfred Derby

The Dante was something of a messy race. You could argue that only two really mattered and one of them, Action, was seemingly on pacemaker duties and is already getting a reputation as something of a rogue.

That makes Item hard to pin down, but he is clearly a classy colt and well worth a shot at the biggest prize of all. You sense he would have won the Dante wherever he raced, but by sticking with the pacemaker Colin Keane saved a bit of ground and, after taking a little while to knuckle down, Item was away and gone.

A bit of residual greenness is permissible, as this horse went to York straight out of novices. He will have learned plenty from a thorough examination in the Dante, yet he will go to Epsom as he started at York: as the usurper with bags of potential against more established rivals.

Watch Item land the Dante at York

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Item16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: Andrew Balding

5. Maltese Cross (-)

William Haggas
Last race: Lingfield Derby Trial, May 9
Next race: Betfred Derby

Maltese Cross (left) lands the Listed William Hill Derby Trial at Lingfield
Maltese Cross (left) lands the Lingfield Derby Trial from Bay Of BrillianceCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Two of the three previous winners of the race this horse won at Newbury last month have ended up winning Group races. The horse he beat this year has already chased home Ancient Egypt in an established Derby trial, too. 

The time analysis is also positive and he followed up in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He stayed on strongly to beat Bay Of Brilliance, but the time was two and a half lengths slower than Cameo recorded in the Oaks Trial over the same course and distance half an hour earlier and that just tempers enthusiasm for his Epsom claims.

Nevertheless, he always appeared to be holding runner-up Bay Of Brilliance, who is thought good enough to contest the Derby himself, and that is enough to sneak Maltese Cross into the top five.

Watch Maltese Cross win Lingfield's Derby Trial

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Maltese Cross16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: William Haggas

6. Saxon Street (-)

John & Thady Gosden
Last race: Blue Riband Trial, Epsom, April 28
Next race: Dante Stakes, York, May 14

It might be several generations since the Blue Riband winner landed the Derby, but it is not for want of trying on John Gosden's part. He has won the race eight times, with some good horses including Cracksman, one of the best to be beaten in the Derby this century.

So don't look down on Saxon Street just because he ran in an unfashionable trial. He was a convincing winner at Epsom, and is one of the few Derby contenders for whom the track is of no concern. The upcoming Dante will test his mettle further. Both of Gosden's Derby winners went via that race.

Watch Saxon Street strike at Epsom

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Saxon Street16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

7. Bay Of Brilliance (-)

Ralph Beckett
Last race: Lingfield Derby Trial, May 9
Next race: Betfred Derby

His eight-and-a-half-length success at Redcar last year was difficult to weigh up going into the Lingfield Derby Trial, but he enhanced his Derby claims significantly by losing out to Maltese Cross by just a neck. The front two pulled six and a half lengths clear of the third and Bay Of Brilliance is certain to stay at Epsom.

The weak time comparisons with Cameo's Oaks Trial victory put a small downer on Bay Of Brilliance's performance but, wherever Maltese Cross is in the ranks, he can't be far behind and seventh seems a fair spot at this point.

Watch Bay Of Brilliance go close at Lingfield

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Bay Of Brilliance16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: Ralph Beckett

8. Ancient Egypt (-)

Charlie Johnston
Last race: Newmarket Stakes, May 1
Next race: Betfred Derby

A seven-figure yearling whose only loss was behind 2,000 Guineas winner Bow Echo. He is by Frankel out of a sister to Midday, who was second in the Oaks and a multiple Group 1 winner.

He is more impressive on paper than prices of 25-1 for the Derby let on, and those odds retain some doubt about the worth of his form. Those are not without grounding. The favourite flopped when he won at Newmarket, but Ancient Egypt looked every inch the archetypal classy Johnston-trained grinder that day. And while plenty of similar types have never quite got it done in the Derby, a few of them have placed, including Lazy Griff last year.

Watch Ancient Egypt win on his seasonal return

Silk
Ancient Egypt16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: Charlie Johnston

9. Morshdi (5)

William Haggas
Last race: Dante Stakes, York, May 14
Next race: Betfred Derby

The vibes have long suggested that Maltese Cross is the more fancied of the two major Haggas hopes for the Derby. The Dante seemed to confirm that, and Morshdi has dropped down the rankings as a result, but there is an important caveat.

He lacked experience coming into York and that was evident in the preliminaries, this strong colt getting on his toes at the start. He ended up rather on his own as whips were drawn in the Dante, edging both ways but staying on all the while. He could easily be the second-best horse from the Dante, whether he is grown-up enough to do himself justice at Epsom is the question.

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Morshdi16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: William Haggas

10. Pierre Bonnard (-)

Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Derby Trial, Leopardstown, May 10 
Next race: Betfred Derby

You sometimes wonder whether Aidan O'Brien runs horses in the Dante simply to try and get a handle on the British challenge. His main hope this year, Christmas Day, was a modest enough third at York and a couple of those behind that day could easily end up better. One, Morshdi, is number nine on this list and King's Trail might be 11 now.

That leaves Pierre Bonnard hanging on in our top ten. He was beaten by Christmas Day in the Ballysax, but ran quite a bit better in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown, when only a lack of finishing kick seemed to stop him from winning. 

O'Brien stresses that he believes longer trips will bring out more in Pierre Bonnard, and you can infer that from how he runs. Maybe he is the St Leger winner. In terms of the Derby, he has no more than a puncher's chance.

Watch Pierre Bonnard go down fighting in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown

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Pierre Bonnard16:00 Epsom
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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Latest Derby news:

Item maintains unbeaten record and enhances Derby claims to continue fine week for Juddmonte 

'It's absolutely wild and incredibly exciting' - ITV racing pundit Kevin Blake in dreamland over his live Derby contender 

'It wouldn't be a given who Ryan would ride' - Aidan O'Brien nominates his main Derby contenders as big Constitution River decision awaits 


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