As it happened: jockey bookings for Ballydoyle brigade revealed with Christophe Soumillon called up for Derby third favourite
Summary
- The final fields for the Betfred Derby and Oaks have been revealed
- Benvenuto Cellini is one of four for Aidan O'Brien in the Derby - with 14 in total declared
- Christophe Soumillon booked for 5-1 third favourite Pierre Bonnard
- Ryan Moore rides the Derby and Oaks favourites Benvenuto Cellini and Amelia Earhart
- Precise was NOT declared for the Oaks due to the softening ground
- The draw for the Derby was made with Maltese Cross and Item in low stalls and Benvenuto Cellini coming from stall 12
CopySummary
- The final fields for the Betfred Derby and Oaks have been revealed
- Benvenuto Cellini is one of four for Aidan O'Brien in the Derby - with 14 in total declared
- Christophe Soumillon booked for 5-1 third favourite Pierre Bonnard
- Ryan Moore rides the Derby and Oaks favourites Benvenuto Cellini and Amelia Earhart
- Precise was NOT declared for the Oaks due to the softening ground
- The draw for the Derby was made with Maltese Cross and Item in low stalls and Benvenuto Cellini coming from stall 12
Signing off
That's all for today's blog, thanks so much for tuning in throughout the morning as the Derby and Oaks fields took shape.
Oli Barnard will be at the helm on Friday when we kick off the blog for Oaks day, and then it's all systems go for the Derby on Saturday.
I've got my hat already picked out for the big day, but I think I'd be better served looking out my raincoat instead.
Be sure to keep an eye on racingpost.com for all the news between now and then, including vital updates on this week's biggest names.
Is there really a draw bias in the Derby?
By Harry Wilson
Much is made of the Derby draw every year, with plenty of people saying that being drawn low isn't the place to be. So, what do the stats say?
Since Racing Post records began in 1988, seven winners have emerged from stalls one to four, ten from stalls five to eight, and 15 from stalls nine to 12. That shows an increasing strike-rate from 4.7 per cent to 6.6 to 10.3, which indicates those housed between stalls nine and 12 hold the advantage.
Looking at the barest facts, we can see that stall ten has produced the most winners in that timeframe with nine victors housed there, which fits with that thinking, although no winner has emerged from stall 11.
All these figures should only be considered when accounting for the market, which we can do by calculating the 'expected winners' total based on Betfair SP for each stall.
The most prolific stall (ten) also has the highest expected winners total, while stalls two and 11 – those that have not produced a winner – have the lowest expected winners.
This suggests that stall ten has simply housed more horses considered to have a better chance of winning according to the market than stalls two or 11, rather than the draw being the major decider.
The overall picture suggests that draw has little effect on how horses fare. As Constitution River showed in the Prix du Jockey Club, if you're good enough to win, the draw shouldn't be a huge concern.
Beckett filly shortens in the Oaks
Stall two may be seen as a detriment in the Derby but it has done nothing to deter punters in the Oaks as money has steadily been coming in for A La Prochaine today.
The Wathnan filly was third to Amelia Earhart at Chester and is drawn near her on Friday when she steps up into Group 1 company for the first time under James Doyle.
The Lope De Vega filly is one of three in the Oaks for Ralph Beckett and is now 15-2 (from 12) to succeed.
Item camp unfazed by Derby draw
Item may have drifted slightly in the Derby market after his draw in stall three but is has not soured Anna Lisa Balding's opinion of the Dante winner.
"It is what it is, I think good horses should win from any draw, you only use the draw as an excuse when you get beat," she told Oli Barnard.
"He was very impressive in the Dante and he was still green when he got out in front. He's so lightly raced. I think what impressed me most was the way he went past Action and galloped to the line and he will have learned from that.
"It's brilliant to have a horse like him to go to the Derby. Walking around the yard there's such a buzz and everyone is really excited. People love good horses, and people love him."
'I want to prove that draw two statistic wrong'
Here's some more reaction from Jane Chapple-Hyam, who is undaunted by Balzac's draw in stall two.
"I want to prove that draw two statistic wrong," she told Maddy Playle.
"I've never run him on soft ground but don't think the going will bother him on breeding. We know we can't win but we want to be in the first half. I'd also rather be in stall two than one, if that's any consolation, or 13 or 14.
"You're going to have one of Aidan O'Brien's going forward and I think Charlie Johnston's [Ancient Egypt] will go forward, so I don't want to get into a ding-dong with them. I think he should sit behind them.
"In an ideal world we'd sit in fourth, but how many people will say that? I'll be in the first half not the last half."
The statistics may suggest Balzac can't win from his draw but if Chapple-Hyam's goal is to finish in the first half, Balzac's starting position might not be such a bad thing.
The record for the last five Derby runners to start from stall two reads 55335.
Ballydoyle jockey bookings decided
I warned you it might take a while but the jockey bookings for the Ballydoyle team at Epsom have finally been revealed – just minutes before the official deadline.
Unsurprisingly, Ryan Moore is booked on the two Classic favourites Amelia Earhart and Benvenuto Cellini, while Wayne Lordan has sided with Cameo and 20-1 Derby shot Action.
Ronan Whelan stepped up his contribution to Ballydoyle with two Group 1 wins at the end of last season and will represent the yard again in this week's Classics, having been booked for Sugar Island and Christmas Day.
That leaves just 5-1 Derby shot Pierre Bonnard, who will be reunited with Christophe Soumillon. The pair are unbeaten in two starts together including when winning the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October.
'The race is back where it should be at the top'
Martin Dwyer found himself in the limelight 20 years ago when winning the Derby with Sir Percy and he was impressed by the Jockey Club's efforts to revitalise the race at this morning's draw.
"I don't remember the draw being a big thing like this when I rode Sir Percy, but at the time I was just waiting until it came out and instantly thinking about how I'd ride," he said.
"This is brilliant, the Jockey Club are doing a great job and what a way to promote it to the world. The race is back where it should be at the top.
"They're trying to engage the public with the Derby again and it would be great to see it how it used to be, when people would jump on a train from London and descend on Epsom."
As for who the former jockey fancies in the race, there's only one choice.
"We're lucky this year there's some really good horses," Dwyer said. "It's a competitive field with some real class there.
"Even with the rain, I'm still on the side of Benvenuto Cellini. He's a class horse, I was there at Chester when he won and he was impressive."
Item drifts in the Derby market
How has the market reacted to the draw?
Very little has changed at the top, with Benvenuto Cellini remaining favourite at 9-4, but Item's draw in stall three appears less than ideal and he's now 4-1 (from 7-2) with Betfred.
The other notable drifter is the William Haggas-trained Maltese Cross, who is now 10-1 (from 8).
He's drawn in stall one, which has produced two winners in the last five years in Adayar (2021) and City Of Troy (2024).
Rain continues in Epsom
The latest update from this Epsom residence is that the rain is falling significantly more than it was half an hour ago.
In addition, my flatmate and colleague Maddy Playle has just been speaking to Jane Chapple-Hyam, who is unruffled by Balzac's draw in stall two.
No horse has won the Derby from that spot since stalls were introduced in 1967, but Chapple-Hyam is all too happy to be the one to break that statistic.
The Ballydoyle colt Action would also be bucking a major trend were he to triumph from stall 11, which has also failed to produce a winner thus far.
Derby draw in order
With the draw done and dusted, here's the starting order for Saturday's Epsom Classic.
In order of stalls, we go:
1. Maltese Cross
2. Balzac
3. Item
4. Poker
5. Christmas Day
6. Alderman
7. A Taste Of Glory
8. Pierre Bonnard
9. Bay Of Brilliance
10. Ancient Egypt
11. Action
12. Benvenuto Cellini
13. James J Braddock
14. Rebel Rocker
Delight for Amo with Ancient Egypt
The biggest reaction in the room looks to have come from the Charlie Johnston camp, who seem delighted with their plum draw for Ancient Egypt.
The Amo colt has landed the coveted spot in stall ten, which prompted a chorus of 'Ooos' at the Peninsula Hotel.
He will be sandwiched between Bay Of Brilliance and Action.
Derby favourite draw revealed
Ancient Egypt - stall ten (the best draw possible)
Benvenuto Cellini - stall 12
Item - stall three
Maltese Cross - stall one
James J Braddock - stall 13
Next batch of draws
Balzac - stall two
Rebel Rocker - stall 14
Alderman - stall six
More draws
Pierre Bonnard - stall eight
Action - stall 11
Bay Of Brilliance - stall nine
First draws revealed
Christmas Day - stall five (a great start for the Ballydoyle team)
Poker - stall four
A Taste Of Glory - stall seven
Derby draw almost under way
Sir Geoff Hurst and Frank Warren will soon be on stage and the Derby draw will then begin.
Here's a reminder about what history suggests is the ideal draw. Let's see who can nab that prime spot in stall ten...
Concerns for Calandagan?
The Coolmore Coronation Cup has been moved to Saturday this year but it could be without its star player after Calandagan's participation was thrown into doubt.
The imperious five-year-old may not run in the Group 1 contest due to ground concerns voiced by Nemone Routh, manager of owner the Aga Khan, and the market has responded by shortening last year's winner Jan Brueghel into favouritism.
The Ballydoyle horse got the better of Calandagan in this race last year and is now 5-4 to repeat his success, with the French runner drifting out to 9-4.
Declarations for the Coronation Cup are due at 10am tomorrow.
Epsom Classic betting
Before the draw gets under way, here's the latest from the sponsors on the betting front for the two Classics:
Betfred Oaks: 7-4 Amelia Earhart, 3 Legacy Link, 6 Thundering On, 8 Al La Prochaine, Cameo, 12 Venetian Lace, 14 K Sarra, 25 On Message, 33 Sugar Island.
Betfred Derby: 2 Benvenuto Cellini, 7-2 Item, 5 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Maltese Cross, 10 James J Braddock, 12 Bay Of Brilliance, 14 Action, Ancient Egypt, 20 Christmas Day, 100 Balzac, Rebel Rocker, 150 A Taste Of Glory, 200 Alderman, Poker.
What is the best draw for the Derby?
By Harry Wilson
We have our final field of 14 for Saturday's Betfred Derby and are now less than half an hour from finding out the draw, but where is the best place to be?
Since stalls were first introduced for the Derby in 1967, there have been 12 winners from stall ten, including last year's winner Lambourn.
That is six winners more than any other draw from stalls one to 20, with the next best being stall four (six wins) followed by stalls one and nine (five victors each).
During that timeframe, we have not had a winner from stalls two or 11, although five horses from those draws have finished runner-up since 1988, with three drawn in stall two and two housed in 11.
Light rain at Epsom
I've just spotted a light smattering of rain starting to fall here in Epsom, so it seems an apt time to provide you some ground analysis from our tipster Harry Wilson.
He's been trawling through the going data to get a sense of what we could expect for the Derby meeting, and you can read his findings here.
Meanwhile, I'll keep an eye on this rain, which is marginal at best at the moment.