Betfred Derby at Epsom: what are the strengths and weaknesses of the main contenders?
The Betfred Derby is just four days away and the field was narrowed down on Monday with 20 colts still in the running searching for the most coveted prize in British Flat racing. Since trial season concluded with the Dante Stakes at York in mid-May, four horses have been trading at single-figure prices for the Epsom Classic and here we run the rule over them.
Delacroix
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Form: 21212-11
Odds: 11-4 (best price)
Strengths: Has clearly improved from his two-year-old season and has stamped his authority in two recognised Derby trials at Leopardstown. The form of his Ballysax Stakes win reads particularly well with runner-up Lambourn and fourth-placed Puppet Master also going on to win Derby trials. Demonstrated greater acceleration than may have been anticipated when quickening clear of Purview at the same track last month. His pedigree suggests stamina should not be an issue and he leapt to the head of the betting when O’Brien hinted he would be the likely ride of stable jockey Ryan Moore.
Weaknesses: He was beaten three times in five runs as a two-year-old, albeit the last of those was only by a nose on soft ground in the Group 1 Futurity. It’s been 23 years since even a runner in the Leopardstown Derby Trial followed up with victory at Epsom. His sire Dubawi has never fathered a Derby winner, although he did bag a belated first Epsom Classic through Ezeliya in last year’s Oaks.
Ruling Court
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Form: 13-11
Odds: 4-1
Strengths: Comes into the Derby as the highest rated of any of the potential 20 runners thanks to his victory in the 2,000 Guineas, which has been a great breeding ground for Epsom winners over the years. He was not short on pace that day and he held on from Field Of Gold, who has since advertised the form very strongly through his Irish 2,000 Guineas demolition job. Ruling Court's sire Justify is also the dad of last year’s Derby winner City Of Troy.
Weaknesses: Would he have beaten Field Of Gold if not for William Buick getting first run on Kieran Shoemark? Plenty think not and he has yet to race beyond a mile so stamina can’t be guaranteed. Was beaten by The Lion In Winter and Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Acomb on the second of his two juvenile runs last year, although has clearly matured a lot since.
Derby free bet offer: get £30 in free bets when you place any bet with Sky Bet
£40 in Free Bets When You Place A £10 Bet On Horse Racing
- More extra place horse races than any other bookmaker
Pride Of Arras
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Form: 1-1
Odds: 5-1
Strengths: The Dante is traditionally viewed as the strongest of the Derby trials and Pride Of Arras belied his inexperience to run out a ready winner. At one point it looked as if the field was going to finish in a total bunch but he did well to put some distance between himself and the rest. Debuted in the same Sandown maiden Beckett also won with Westover (second in the Derby and an Irish Derby winner) but has more speed than him according to the trainer. Should be open to a huge amount of improvement on what will be only his third start and stamina shouldn't be in doubt.
Weaknesses: The Dante was run at a sedate pace and there was still less than eight lengths separating the 11-runner field at the line. The Derby is almost guaranteed to be run at a much stronger gallop. The top two in the betting at York underperformed compared with market expectations and his Racing Post Rating achieved that day is the second lowest of any Dante winner in the last ten years (114, Desert Crown awarded 120 before his Derby win in 2022). His sire New Bay was a French Derby winner and third in an Arc but Pride Of Arras's pedigree is not as striking as the other main contenders, with his three closest relations through his dam all sent over hurdles after limited returns on the Flat.
The Lion In Winter
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Form: 11-6
Odds: 7-1
Strengths: The impression he created on his debut at the Curragh last July was enough to see him almost immediately installed as Derby favourite. Subsequently had the best juvenile form of any horse still entered thanks to a decisive defeat of Wimbledon Hawkeye and Ruling Court at York. His sire Sea The Stars was a Derby winner and his dam also won over a mile and a half so he ticks the stamina boxes. He may have failed to deliver on his long-awaited return in the Dante but O’Brien’s last two Derby winners – City Of Troy and Auguste Rodin – arrived at Epsom on the back of unsatisfactory comeback runs and he will surely improve for that.
Weaknesses: At the same time, it is harder to draw a line though his sixth-placed finish in the Dante than it was City Of Troy or Auguste Rodin’s Guineas blowouts, and he pulled very hard in the early stages. He missed two engagements towards the end of last season with a bruised foot and wasn’t ready in time for the 2,000 Guineas so plenty has gone awry since that Acomb win. His odds have been all over the place since the Dante, having initially been backed into favouritism again before drifting alarmingly out to 12-1 on Friday. He has steadied in the market a bit since but a lot of uncertainty surrounds him and if Ryan Moore is booked to ride Delacroix it would cement him as second choice in the eyes of those who know him best.
Derby free bet offer: get a £50 free bet when you bet £50
Get £40 In Free Bets When You Bet £10
- Generous odds on horse racing
Who else is in Derby contention?
A large part of the Derby’s beauty is its depth. When you’re dealing with such young and inexperienced horses improvements from race to race can be huge. That makes it hard to ever truly rule any horse out, regardless of their odds, and means plenty of trainers and owners throw their hat in the ring for the big day.
Aside from the four above who have dominated the market over the last few weeks, there are many others who will travel to Epsom believing they have a big chance, including Damysus, who was second to Pride Of Arras in the Dante and should improve for going up in trip.
The unbeaten Midak looks the more interesting of the two supplementary entries having won the same trial also landed by France's last Derby winner Pour Moi on his way to Epsom.
Stanhope Gardens has had an unorthodox preparation via a three-runner conditions race at Salisbury but was highlighted by his trainer Ralph Beckett at the start of the season as his most likely Derby contender so is obviously held in high regard.
Nightwalker was fifth in the Dante so can't be overlooked while there was little wrong with Tornado Alert's fourth in the 2,000 Guineas, for all he would need to improve a lot to get by Ruling Court.
Lambourn and Puppet Master could be third and fourth choice for Aidan O'Brien but the pair won Derby trials at Chester and Lingfield and five of the trainer's record ten Derby wins have been with horses not even shortest in the betting within their own stable.
Owners Amo Racing (who could run Tuscan Hills) and Ahmad Al Shaikh (Al Wasl Storm and Green Storm) have had runners at huge odds make the Derby frame in recent years so could well attract some small each-way support on raceday.
Latest Derby odds in full
Betfred Derby (3.30 Epsom, Saturday)
Betfred: 11-4 Delacroix, 4 Ruling Court, 9-2 Pride Of Arras, 6 The Lion In Winter, 11 Damysus, 12 Lambourn, 14 Midak, 16 Stanhope Gardens, 20 Nightwalker, 33 New Ground, Tornado Alert, 50 Tennessee Stud, 66 Puppet Master, Tuscan Hills, 80 Lazy Griff, 100 Al Wasl Storm, Sea Scout, 150 Nightime Dancer, 200 Green Storm, Rogue Impact.
More on the Derby . . .
Aidan O'Brien stars stand their ground as 20 remain in contention for the Derby
Get 60% off Racing Post+
To help you get set for Epsom and Royal Ascot, we're offering you the first month of Racing Post+ Ultimate for £20 when you sign up via web using code JUNEJEWELS20 – that's a whopping 60% discount. Available only to new and returning customers. Subscription will auto-renew at £49.95 unless you call our cancellation line to cancel. Sign up now.
Published on inDerby festival
Last updated
Copy- Monopoly man: Aidan O'Brien's domination of the colts' Classic markets is now almost total
- 'Christophe was always raving about him' - Pierre Bonnard new Derby favourite as Aidan O'Brien takes domination to new levels
- Royal Ascot is booming - but at what cost to the Derby?
- There's one apprentice I want to have on my side at Royal Ascot next week - and Epsom showed just what a talent he is
- Group 1 targets await New Ground after French outsider's blinding run to finish fourth in the Derby
- Monopoly man: Aidan O'Brien's domination of the colts' Classic markets is now almost total
- 'Christophe was always raving about him' - Pierre Bonnard new Derby favourite as Aidan O'Brien takes domination to new levels
- Royal Ascot is booming - but at what cost to the Derby?
- There's one apprentice I want to have on my side at Royal Ascot next week - and Epsom showed just what a talent he is
- Group 1 targets await New Ground after French outsider's blinding run to finish fourth in the Derby