Benvenuto Cellini is back at the head of our Derby power rankings - but which 200-1 outsider has sneaked into the top ten?
Four of the Racing Post's best judges assess the Derby hopefuls
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources or find out more here
Trials for the Betfred Derby, one of the most famous races in the British calendar, come thick and fast through May. At every twist and turn, our top team of analysts will keep you on top of who's hot and who's not ahead of the world's most famous Classic at Epsom on June 6.
The rankings are reached by an amalgamation of the views of our four experts, Keith Melrose, Graeme Rodway, Robbie Wilders and Harry Wilson.
Here are the latest rankings after our previous number one, Constitution River, was rerouted to the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly on Sunday.
1. Benvenuto Cellini (⇑1)
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Chester Vase, May 6
Likeliest next race: Betfred Derby
While Constitution River impressed more at Chester, Benvenuto Cellini still won his race like the sort of horse that Aidan O'Brien might build the Derby around. When Benvenuto Cellini won the Chester Vase, stablemate Proposition ensured a fair gallop that played into the hands of this long-striding sort.
Assuming he goes to Epsom, expect similar treatment. While Benvenuto Cellini is by Frankel out of a high-class miler, the thinking is seemingly that he needs a good pace to run at, even over middle distances. He still has a bit to find on form, although Chester was not quite as well-run as the visual impressions would have you believe, so there is clearly potential for more to come.
He has seemingly been the Ballydoyle number one for a while and the fact that connections have sent Constitution River, who would have been his biggest danger in our book, to France instead is a massive vote of confidence. It seems the Coolmore team have complete belief that Benvenuto Cellini is the real deal.
Watch Benvenuto Cellini's win in the Chester Vase
2. Item (⇑1)
Andrew Balding
Last race: Dante Stakes, York, May 14
Next race: Betfred Derby
The Dante was something of a messy race. You could argue that only two really mattered and one of them, Action, was seemingly on pacemaker duties and is already getting a reputation as something of a rogue.
That makes Item hard to pin down, but he is clearly a classy colt and well worth a shot at the biggest prize of all. You sense he would have won the Dante wherever he raced, but by sticking with the pacemaker Colin Keane saved a bit of ground and, after taking a little while to knuckle down, Item was away and gone.
A bit of residual greenness is permissible, as this horse went to York straight out of novices. He will have learned plenty from a thorough examination in the Dante, yet he will go to Epsom as he started at York: as the usurper with bags of potential against more established rivals.
Watch Item land the Dante at York
3. Maltese Cross (⇑1)
William Haggas
Last race: Lingfield Derby Trial, May 9
Next race: Betfred Derby
Two of the three previous winners of the race this horse won at Newbury last month have ended up winning Group races. The horse he beat this year has already chased home Ancient Egypt in an established Derby trial, too.
The time analysis is also positive and he followed up in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He stayed on strongly to beat Bay Of Brilliance, but the time was two and a half lengths slower than Cameo recorded in the Oaks Trial over the same course and distance half an hour earlier and that just tempers enthusiasm for his Epsom claims.
Nevertheless, he always appeared to be holding runner-up Bay Of Brilliance, who is thought good enough to contest the Derby himself, and that is enough to sneak Maltese Cross into the top three.
Watch Maltese Cross win Lingfield's Derby Trial
4. Bay Of Brilliance (⇑1)
Ralph Beckett
Last race: Lingfield Derby Trial, May 9
Next race: Betfred Derby
His eight-and-a-half-length success at Redcar last year was difficult to weigh up going into the Lingfield Derby Trial, but he enhanced his Derby claims significantly by losing out to Maltese Cross by just a neck. The front two pulled six and a half lengths clear of the third and Bay Of Brilliance is certain to stay at Epsom.
The weak time comparisons with Cameo's Oaks Trial victory put a small downer on Bay Of Brilliance's performance but, wherever Maltese Cross is in the ranks, he can't be far behind and he moves up to fourth following the news that Constitution River has been switched to the Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday.
Watch Bay Of Brilliance go close at Lingfield
5. Ancient Egypt (⇑1)
Charlie Johnston
Last race: Newmarket Stakes, May 1
Next race: Betfred Derby
A seven-figure yearling whose only loss was behind 2,000 Guineas winner Bow Echo. He is by Frankel out of a sister to Midday, who was second in the Oaks and a multiple Group 1 winner.
He is more impressive on paper than prices of 16-1 for the Derby let on, and those odds retain some doubt about the worth of his form. Those are not without grounding. The favourite flopped when he won at Newmarket, but Ancient Egypt looked every inch the archetypal classy Johnston-trained grinder that day. And while plenty of similar types have never quite got it done in the Derby, a few of them have placed, including Lazy Griff last year.
Watch Ancient Egypt win on his seasonal return
6. Pierre Bonnard (⇑1)
Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Derby Trial, Leopardstown, May 10
Next race: Betfred Derby
Pierre Bonnard hasn't done anything special and was beaten by Christmas Day in the Ballysax, but ran quite a bit better in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown, when only a lack of finishing kick seemed to stop him from winning.
O'Brien stresses that he believes longer trips will bring out more in Pierre Bonnard, and you can infer that from how he runs. Maybe he is the St Leger winner. In terms of the Derby, he has no more than a puncher's chance, but we'll take him to reverse the places with Derby Trial winner James J Braddock and the Ballysax form with Christmas Day.
Watch Pierre Bonnard go down fighting in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown
7. James J Braddock (⇑1)
Joseph O'Brien
Last race: Derby trial, Leopardstown, May 10
Next race: Betfred Derby
We have consistently had Pierre Bonnard ahead of James J Braddock since they met in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown, despite the latter winning by a short head.
The reasons for that are fairly simple: as Aidan O'Brien later said himself, Pierre Bonnard is going to thrive over 1m4f compared with a somewhat steadily-run 1m2f.
That said, we acknowledge that connections are yet to properly open the box with this son of Zarak. Given his first run and reappearance would have been needed, he has had only two full-blooded runs in his career. There could be more to come at Epsom.
Watch James J Braddock land the Derby Trial at Leopardstown
8. Christmas Day (⇑1)
Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Dante Stakes, York, May 14
Next race: Betfred Derby
Because the Ballysax Stakes is the first of the Derby trials, it is often superseded by the end of the series. That is probably true once more, but you would do well not to totally forget about the impression left by Christmas Day when he won that race. In a race with a fast finish, he quickened up smartly and had a bit in hand at the line.
The mere fact he was O'Brien's Dante horse is held against him, as O'Brien tends to run a scout rather than a contender at York. Still, he was third in spite of steering a wider course than he needed to, and it kept up his record of advancing his form on each of his six career starts.
O'Brien's more experienced sorts often outperform their prices in the Derby, and Christmas Day could be the latest, especially as it becomes clear that this year's Derby is not teeming with contenders.
Watch Christmas Day win the Ballysax Stakes in April
9. Action (⇑1)
Aidan O'Brien
Last race: Dante Stakes, York, May 14
Next race: Betfred Derby
We've already acknowledged that the Dante was a messy race and that Action, who may have been on pacemaking duties, might not be one to fully trust.
Nevertheless, he still split Item, who is third on this list, and Christmas Day (ninth) and he simply must be in the top ten on that form alone in a year when there doesn't appear to be loads of standout candidates.
Should he line up at Epsom then he will probably be wearing second or third silks at best, but he has already shown that he can be useful as a pacemaker.
Ballydoyle pacemakers should never be fully written off and most will remember Sovereign stealing the Irish Derby from the front in 2019, while the following year it happened in this very race. Another Serpentine, anyone?
Watch Action split Item and Christmas Day in the Dante at York
10. Rebel Rocker (new entry)
Trainer: Faye Bramley
Last race: Blue Riband Trial Stakes, Goodwood, April 28
Next race: Betfred Derby
This could be the story of stories because Rebel Rocker is set to be a first Derby runner for owner-breeder Jennifer Dorey and trainer Faye Bramley.
Bramley might be best known for her success over jumps, but she has a smart prospect on her hands in Rebel Rocker, who chased home Saxon Street in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom last time.
Saxon Street hardly franked the form when beaten in the Cocked Hat at Goodwood last weekend, but he didn't run badly either and still emerged as the best horse in the race at the weights.
He would certainly have been in the top ten had he still been on course for the Derby, but it looks more likely he will miss it and Rebel Rocker is now the horse to take from the Blue Riband Trial.
If there is one who could outrun massive odds, it's this son of Cityscape.
Watch Rebel Rocker chase home Saxon Street at the home of the Derby last time
Latest Derby news:
The Derby is the race racing made it – and only the industry itself can save the Classic now
Looking for free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.
Published on inDerby festival
Last updated
CopyClick here to add us to your Google preferred sources or find out more here
- 'He's too big a price' - Pricewise tipster Tom Segal fancies an outsider to upset the big two in the Coronation Cup
- 'I'm convinced we're yet to see the best of him' - Harry Wilson had two winners on Friday and returns with his Derby day tips
- Rain set to hit Epsom overnight as track reports positive attendance figures for Oaks day
- 'It’s really a dream come true' - billionaire owner-breeder Shapoor Mistry reaping the rewards following Oaks success
- Epsom: 'I let out an expletive but he put his head down where it mattered' - Seagulls Eleven swoops late under red-hot Oisin Murphy
- 'He's too big a price' - Pricewise tipster Tom Segal fancies an outsider to upset the big two in the Coronation Cup
- 'I'm convinced we're yet to see the best of him' - Harry Wilson had two winners on Friday and returns with his Derby day tips
- Rain set to hit Epsom overnight as track reports positive attendance figures for Oaks day
- 'It’s really a dream come true' - billionaire owner-breeder Shapoor Mistry reaping the rewards following Oaks success
- Epsom: 'I let out an expletive but he put his head down where it mattered' - Seagulls Eleven swoops late under red-hot Oisin Murphy