Stat attack: just how important is the draw in the Chester Cup?

Much is made of the draw for the 188Bet Chester Cup, and with good reason.

This is not your average 2m2½f handicap – for a start it is worth £120,000. That attracts a high-class field of potentially well-handicapped horses and thus every available advantage must be sought. With Chester's super-tight configuration meaning the runners are almost constantly turning and therefore those travelling wide are running considerably further, being prominent is a huge advantage.

There are two main reasons for this.

Firstly, it makes bagging a position on the rail easier. Secondly, jockeys loathe to travel wide around Chester and race over any further than the marathon stamina test. However, the further back they have to sit to get a crucial ground-saving position near the rail the more horses they have to then pass.

Effect of the draw

The table below looks at which stalls the winner and placed horses have come from in the last ten runnings of the Chester Cup.

As you can see, six of the ten winners have come from stall five or lower – highlighting the obvious advantage to being drawn low – but the remaining four have all come from double digit stalls with the widest coming from 16.

The placed horses too show a clear favouring to those drawn low, with 18 of the 30 coming from single figures, but two horses have placed from 19 – the widest stall of all – so a wide draw need not be viewed as the death knell many presume.

Almost half of the placed horses – 14 of 30 to be exact – have come from stalls five to nine, so slightly wider than where the majority of winners have come from, and when factoring in that three winners have come from four the last ten renewals suggest those drawn between stalls four and nine.

Donald McCain: won this race with Overturn and Il De ReCredit: Grossick Racing Photography

Donald McCain, who won this in 2011 with Overturn and saddled an Il De Re-led one-two in 2012, tops and tails the range with William Of Orange in stall four and Good Tradition in nine, while the Mark Johnston-trained pair of Isharah and Watersmeet in five and six. Alan King and David Simcock are the others to make it into this historically favoured range with Who Dares Wins and The Cashel Man.

Ante-post favourite Sea Of Heaven comes from 14, a stall from which just one horse has hit the frame in the last ten renewals.

Chester Cup card