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Cheltenham Festival

The rocky road to the Supreme: the state of play, key races to come plus Harry Wilson's ante-post tip

Analysing the uncertainty in the ante-post market for the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser

Supreme favourite Salvator Mundi and his trainer Willie Mullins
Supreme favourite Salvator Mundi and his trainer Willie Mullins

It is exactly eight weeks until the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle kicks off the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. Usually by this stage of the season we have a firm grasp on the main contenders and who is likely to show up at Prestbury Park in March, but after a series of trials that have thrown up more questions than answers, there are only two runners currently priced at single-figure odds.

Here we take a look at the meeting opener and the ante-post picture for a big betting race. 


What to make of the market leaders?

Willie Mullins typically sends one of his best novices to Punchestown's Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, and that appeared to be the case again on Sunday after the victory of Salvator Mundi, although his win did not come in the manner many expected.

Salvator Mundi and Paul Townend winning the Grade 2 Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle
Salvator Mundi and Paul Townend winning the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice HurdleCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

He was cut to 7-2 (from 5) after beating stablemate Kel Histoire by three lengths going away, but debate has raged since over his Supreme credentials following a display that left plenty to work on.

In a slowly run race described as "messy" by Paul Townend, Salvator Mundi was keen and his jumping was poor. Nonetheless, the way he swept past his rivals in a matter of strides having done plenty wrong and on his first run since May were taken as big positives by his connections. Townend and Patrick Mullins both dismissed fears over his jumping and expect him to be much sharper in a fast-run Supreme.

The handicappers weren't overly impressed, though. He was awarded a Racing Post Rating of 138, the lowest of any Moscow Flyer winner in the last decade, although that can partly be attributed to the lack of depth of those around him. That figure is 8lb lower than the 146 he achieved when winning a Tipperary maiden by 62 lengths last May.

His closest market rival in the Supreme is the Gordon Elliott-trained Romeo Coolio (7-1), who was beaten at odds-on in the Royal Bond but bounced back to win the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas in dominant fashion.

Last year's Champion Bumper runner-up has the form in the book and has achieved more this season than any other Supreme candidate, but does he lack the 'wow' factor?



What about the others?

The problem for anyone looking to take on Salvator Mundi after his performance on Sunday is the lack of clear alternatives.

Many of the major races which usually act in part as trials for the Supreme have only muddied the waters. Romeo Coolio's conqueror in the Royal Bond was the Mullins-trained Tounsivator, who no longer qualifies as a novice. 

In Britain, the Formby at Aintree, which replaced Sandown’s Tolworth Hurdle won by Constitution Hill and Summerville Boy in the last decade, went to Potters Charm, a two-and-a-half-miler dropping back in trip. Connections are intent on going back up for the Turners at the festival.

Another complication is that the pecking order of Mullins' huge string of potential candidates has yet to become clear.

Kopek Des Bordes is the 12-1 third favourite and is highly regarded at home, but like Salvator Mundi did not impress with his jumping on his hurdles debut at Leopardstown on December 26. Kaid D'Authie, Kel Histoire, Irancy and You Oughta Know are just some of the other horses to have won two-mile maiden or novice contests for Mullins this season, but there is a lack of clear evidence on which to judge them.

Workahead and Mike O'Connor win the maiden hurdle
Workahead and Mike O'Connor on their way to victory in a maiden hurdle at LeopardstownCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

The Dublin Racing Festival should answer plenty of those questions, but until then one of the only contenders we know for sure is going to the Supreme is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Workahead

He blew away what looked like a strong field in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas and has come in for plenty of support since his trainer, who won the race for the first time last year with Slade Steel, confirmed he would head straight to Cheltenham. His price ranges between 10 and 18-1.

Jeroboam Machin, who exploded onto the scene with a Grade 2 bumper success at last year’s Dublin Racing Festival, is as short as 10-1 in some non-runner no bet markets, but has not been seen since and has no upcoming entries.

Where is the British challenge?

Scrolling through the ante-post market makes grim reading for the home team. 

The shortest-priced potential British runner is 20-1 shot The New Lion, who is set to have an entry but is 3-1 favourite for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle and has raced exclusively at middle distances so far this season.  

Nicky Henderson with Constitution Hill after the Christmas Hurdle
Nicky Henderson: has won the Supreme with Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill but no obvious Supreme candidate has emerged so far from Seven BarrowsCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

You can usually rely on Nicky Henderson to provide at least one leading contender, but he has yet to send out an obvious candidate so far this season.

Kientzheim (40-1) looks a more likely Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle runner, while big-money point-to-point purchase Minella Premier (still in some ante-post markets) won’t be seen this season. The intriguing Donwave, twice a winner in France over the summer for Arnaud Chaille-Chaille (from whom Henderson has also procured Triumph Hurdle favourite Lulamba), is 33-1 but has yet to run for his new stable and does not hold any upcoming entries.

Mister Meggit, for Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, looked like he could be Graded standard at the very least when winning impressively at Ascot at the beginning of November, but he has not run since. 

The key pre-festival races

The Dublin Racing Festival should provide us with much of the clarity we are seeking on Mullins' team, with the Tattersalls-sponsored 2m novice hurdle on February 2 sure to play a huge part in separating out his best novices. 

He has won it with future Supreme scorers Appreciate It, Klassical Dream and Vautour, and is responsible for ten of the 21 entries this year. Kopek Des Bordes and Kaid D’Authie share 11-4 favouritism in the early market.

Kopek Des Bordes: struck over hurdles at Leopardstown and was cut for the Supreme
Kopek Des Bordes: Leopardstown winner over Christmas could head to the DRF nextCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Haydock hosts a Supreme trial on Saturday with Dan Skelton’s Royal Infantry, eighth in last year’s Champion Bumper and unbeaten in two starts over hurdles, likely to head the market. Musselburgh stages the bet365 Scottish Supreme Novices' Hurdle on February 4.

Shishkin won the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon to tee up Supreme success in 2020, and the Listed event takes place on February 6. The Dovecote Novices' Hurdle is staged at Kempton on February 22, but its influence has dwindled in recent years and no winner has even run in the Supreme since River Wylde in 2017 (third at Cheltenham).


Ante-post Supreme Novices' Hurdle verdict: 'Take the 12-1 on offer now'

Kopek Des Bordes
12-1 generally

By Harry Wilson, tipster

Salvator Mundi heads the betting, but the reasons to leave him alone at 7-2 far outweigh the positives.

He was highly touted after finishing second to Sir Gino in France, but the winner did it comfortably that day and has clearly improved further since, so Salvator Mundi may have been a touch flattered.

He hacked up at Tipperary in May, but those rivals may never win a race and are all rated in the 80s, while his jumping wasn’t fluent in the Triumph Hurdle or in the Moscow Flyer, so there must be value in taking him on.

Romeo Coolio looks the one to beat based on his Grade 1 win over Christmas, but his Royal Bond defeat is enough to raise doubts, so it may be best to take the 12-1 on offer about Kopek Des Bordes before he goes to the DRF.

He was a comfortable 13-length winner of his sole bumper from the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Clap Of Thunder, who had previously been beaten little more than four lengths by top prospects Bill Joyce and Royal Infantry. Kopek Des Bordes looked a smart prospect subsequently when extending his unbeaten record with victory in a 23-runner maiden at Leopardstown last month.

He’ll need to polish up his jumping, but he’s sure to step forward for that experience and this well-regarded sort could be verging on favouritism come the festival.

Silk
Kopek Des Bordes13:20 Cheltenham
View Racecard
Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20 Cheltenham, March 11)

Sky Bet: 7-2 Salvator Mundi, 7 Romeo Coolio, 12 Kopek Des Bordes, Kaid D'Authie, 14 Workahead, The New Lion, 20 Jeroboam Machin, Kel Histoire, 25 bar.


Read more . . .

The Supreme conundrum: will Salvator Mundi win the Cheltenham Festival opener? 

'He didn’t jump well because I couldn’t let him' - Paul Townend on Supreme favourite Salvator Mundi's winning return 

Supreme dark horse set to go straight to festival opener after explosive Leopardstown Christmas win 


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