Is Cheltenham Trials day a reliable guide to festival success?

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Cheltenham's Trials day offers the final opportunity for horses to run at the track before the festival in March, but how strong a guide is it to what follows? We’ve gone back to 2015 to examine the data and revisit those who have managed to win at both meetings.

What the numbers say

Since 2015, 296 horses have run on Cheltenham Trials day and then gone on to contest a race at the festival. Of those, just 26 (nine per cent) have managed to win at the main event, with 12 completing the Trials day-festival double.

Irish-trained runners account for 37 of those who have competed at both meetings, a relatively small number owing to the fact that there are plenty of options at home and Trials day now falls a week before the Dublin Racing Festival. Eight of those 37 won on Trials day, with three going on to score again at the festival.

The highest number of double winners was in 2019, when Frodon, Siruh Du Lac and Paisley Park all won at both meetings, and in 2016, 2017 and 2020 there were two apiece. With no more than one a year since 2021, it suggests either a reduced appetite for targeting both fixtures in recent years or that runners are finding it harder to back up Trials day performances at the festival.

Best and worst races for producing festival winners

The most productive race in terms of yielding festival winners has been the novice handicap chase. Of the eight Trials day winners to contest a race in March, four followed up at the festival. Stage Star won the Turners Novices’ Chase in 2023, Mister Whitaker landed the Close Brothers’ Novices’ Handicap Chase in 2018 and two others went on to win the Festival Plate.

Stage Star wins the Turners Novices' Chase in 2023Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Six Cleeve Hurdle winners have gone on to run at the festival, with two of those scoring again – Thistlecrack in the Stayers’ Hurdle in 2016 and Paisley Park in the same race in 2019.

Seven winners of the Triumph Trial have subsequently lined up at the festival. Peace And Co and Defi Du Seuil both went on to land the Triumph, while two more finished third and one came fourth. Fakir D’Oudairies finished fourth in the Supreme and Galahad Quest was unplaced in the Fred Winter.

The Cotswold Chase has proved a poor guide. Of the last seven horses to win the race and then contest a festival event, only one has followed up – Frodon, who dropped back in trip to land the Ryanair Chase in 2019.

Big names among those to have done the double

Frodon is one of the 12 since 2015 to have won on Trials day and at the festival. The 2018-19 campaign was a memorable one, with the popular chaser winning four of his five starts, the exception being a runner-up finish. After taking the Old Roan at Aintree, his remaining four runs all came at Cheltenham, including his Cotswold-Ryanair double.

Frodon and Bryony Frost after winning the Ryanair Chase in 2019Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Jagwar was the most recent to achieve the feat, doing so last season. He won the novice handicap chase on Trials day, beating Billytherealbigred, before delighting punters when justifying favouritism in the Festival Plate.

Thistlecrack also delivered a memorable double in 2016, beginning an unbeaten calendar year with success in the Cleeve Hurdle before powering to a seven-length victory in the Stayers’ Hurdle as the even-money favourite. He went on to win five more races that year, including the Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle, before returning the following season to land the King George VI Chase.

Other notable double winners include Un De Sceaux in 2017 and more recently Lossiemouth, who won the Unibet Hurdle in 2024 before following up to win the Mares’ Hurdle for the first time.

• Watch: Cheltenham Trials day preview and tipping show with Paul Kealy and Tom Segal

Who might do the double this year?

Maestro Conti looks Britain’s leading hope for the Triumph Hurdle and is joint-third in the market at 10-1. He heads the betting for Saturday’s trial (12.40), which should provide clearer clues about his credentials, although he faces a serious challenge from Paul Nicholls’ Minella Yoga.

Jagwar returns to Trials day in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1.15). Joint-trainer Josh Guerriero said earlier this month that a strong performance would be needed to confirm his place in the Ryanair Chase line-up.

Jagwar after winning the Plate at last year's festivalCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Gavin Cromwell sends Final Orders for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (1.50), with course specialist Keith Donoghue again booked. He is a 10-1 chance for the Cross Country Chase at the festival, a market headed by last year’s winner Stumptown.

Grey Dawning is the odds-on favourite for the Cotswold Chase (2.25), with connections hoping he can strengthen his claims of delivering Dan Skelton a first Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Attention will also centre on the Unibet Hurdle (3.00), which features the first two in the Champion Hurdle market, Sir Gino (5-4) and The New Lion (4-1). Their first meeting promises to answer key questions about the strength of their Champion Hurdle credentials.

Impose Toi runs in the Cleeve Hurdle (3.35) and is an 11-2 chance for the Stayers’ Hurdle, while his trainer Nicky Henderson is represented by Act Of Innocence in the Grade 2 AIS Novices’ Hurdle (4.10). He is 10-1 for the Turners Novices' Hurdle at the festival.

Read more . . .

Confirmed runners and riders for the feature races on Cheltenham Trials day on Saturday 

What is The New Lion's best trip and can Britain spoil Ireland's Triumph party? The key questions on Trials day at Cheltenham 

'We've never taken on a horse like Sir Gino' - Harry Skelton ready for The New Lion's acid test 

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