Grade 1-winning Willie Mullins 66-1 shot is worth a bet in wide-open Supreme
Tom Park with two tips for the Grade 1 novice hurdles following Tuesday's entry stage
Entries have now been revealed for the three Grade 1 novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival and Tom Park has picked out his ante-post selections for each race . . .
Supreme
Salvator Mundi is clear favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle but in my opinion his performance in the Moscow Flyer last time was ordinary at best and a long way short of what you would expect of a horse who is so short for the festival opener.
His Racing Post Rating of 138 was 8lb worse than his maiden success and, while I am sure Salvator Mundi is better than that, there is nothing in his British or Irish form which warrants his current place at the helm of the Supreme market, with arguably his standout piece of form coming when beaten a length and a three-quarters by Sir Gino in France.
I'd argue Romeo Coolio has done far more than Salvator Mundi on what we have seen this season, but he blotted his copybook at Fairyhouse and is clearly not a superstar.
With the picture looking murky it often pays to look further down the field and if you go down far enough there is a 66-1 shot who stands out like a sore thumb.
Redemption Day has a peculiar profile as he made his first start in a bumper in December 2021 and was still competing in bumpers in May, when bolting up in a Grade 1 at Punchestown.
That form is red-hot. The second was The Yellow Clay, who is a single-figure price for the Turners and Albert Bartlett, third was William Munny, who has been touted by some as a dark horse for the Supreme, Romeo Coolio was beaten 18 lengths into fifth with last season's Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux well beaten in eighth.
Redemption Day finally made his hurdling debut over Christmas when sent off even-money favourite for quite a strong maiden hurdle at Leopardstown, where he clearly didn't run his race when beaten 26 lengths into fourth. Plenty of Willie Mullins-trained horses were well below their best during this period so it is easy to forgive, particularly when it seemed too bad to be true, and it is far easier to give a horse another chance when they are 66-1.
The Supreme is Redemption Day's only entry for the festival and, given there are a number of horses who are much shorter in the betting for this who are unlikely to run, he looks a cracking bet at 66-1.
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Turners
The New Lion has been scintillating on every start this season and thoroughly deserves his place at the head of the market for the Turners. However, this looks the hottest of the three Grade 1 novice hurdles and he is short enough at 5-2, so I would much rather back Potters Charm at nearly three times the price.
Potters Charm was workmanlike in winning over 2m1f at Aintree last time out and, while he does hold an entry for the Supreme, I'd be staggered if connections don't run him in the Turners.
His performance before that, when he slammed Valgrand by 11 lengths at Cheltenham's November meeting, was right out of the top drawer and he was impressive at Cheltenham the start before. His experience over course and distance might just give him an edge over The New Lion.
The New Lion looks all about speed. He does things very easily on the bridle, while Potters Charm relies more on stamina, and Cheltenham often suits types like the latter more.
That is not to take away anything from The New Lion. His performance in what was billed as a top-class running of the Challow was superb and was the best novice performance I have seen in Britain or Ireland this season. However, I don't think Potters Charm's Cheltenham success is far behind and the 7-1 available makes him a rock solid each-way bet.
Festival Fields:
'He's absolutely the one to beat' - Tom Park with ante-post advice on the Arkle and Brown Advisory
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- 'He's absolutely the one to beat' - Tom Park with ante-post advice on the Arkle and Brown Advisory
- Less choice has helped but multiple entries still leave plenty of unanswered Cheltenham questions for punters
- Sir Gino set for Game Spirit prep as Nicky Henderson opts to go down Altior route to Arkle
- The Willie Mullins-trained novice hurdler who could be absolutely anything - plus other key Cheltenham entries talking points
- Record-low entry for Brown Advisory in past 15 years despite axing of Turners