'He's absolutely the one to beat' - Tom Park with ante-post advice on the Arkle and Brown Advisory

Entries have now been revealed for the two Grade 1 novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival and Tom Park has picked out his ante-post selections for each race . . .

• Brown Advisory entries suffer and Lulamba in the Supreme as more major Cheltenham Festival contenders revealed 

Arkle

L'Eau du Sud14:00 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Dan Skelton

The first of the Grade 1 novice chases at the festival has a red-hot favourite in Sir Gino and, in truth, he is going to be very difficult to beat after producing one of the all-time great chase debuts when slamming Ballyburn in the Wayward Lad at Kempton last month.

That said, he is a best-priced 4-5 and it is difficult to envisage him going off much shorter than that if Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough, who was also deeply impressive on his chase debut at Fairyhouse, wins the Irish Arkle before taking his chance in this.

If you were to throw in Ile Atlantique – who has taken his form to a new level since switching to chasing – into the mix and all of a sudden Sir Gino is looking rather skinny for such a competitive race.

Of course there is a good chance he is simply better than them all, and there is no doubting he is comfortably the most likely winner, but I would rather take a chance on one each-way at a double-figure price, and it seems like people have forgotten just how impressive L'Eau Du Sud has been in his three starts over fences this season.

He is more than a stone better over fences already than he was over hurdles and he was pretty good in that sphere, finishing second in the Betfair Hurdle and County Hurdle, and, while it was often thought he needed cut in the ground, he has proven his versatility regarding conditions with connections now thinking he might be a lot better on better ground.

His Racing Post Rating of 155 in the Henry VIII at Sandown last time sets a decent standard, especially when you consider connections expect him to improve plenty for a better surface. That said, he's still got 11lb to find on RPRs with Sir Gino, although it is worth remembering that Ballyburn did underperform at Kempton, jumping poorly throughout, over a trip and track clearly too sharp.

We don't yet know what L'Eau Du Sud's ceiling could be over fences and, while he might find it tough to overcome Sir Gino, he looks a big each-way shout at 14-1.

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Brown Advisory

Ballyburn14:00 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

While the decision to strip what was the Turners Novices' Chase over 2m4f of its Grade 1 status and making it a handicap might be good for keeping the Arkle and Brown Advisory competitive, it does give Willie Mullins a pretty big headache as to what to do with Ballyburn after he clearly found 2m at Kempton too sharp over Christmas.

With no Grade 1 over 2m4f, a step up to 3m is the logical way to go with Ballyburn who, although winning over 2m over hurdles at the Dublin Racing Festival in such spectacular style, has always looked a stayer in the making. One thing is for sure, it would be absolutely foolish to rule him out from any race. 

Ballyburn wouldn't be the first Willie Mullins-trained novice chaser who was seemingly destined for stardom to blot his copybook before bouncing back at the festival. Gaelic Warrior did so last season before winning the Arkle and, while many remember Vautour's mesmerising display in what was then the JLT Novices' Chase at the festival, few remember he was beaten 17 lengths by Clarcam over 2m earlier in the season.

The Brown Advisory is bubbling up into a good race with The Jukebox Man looking exceptional at Kempton over Christmas and Dancing City bringing some good form to the table too. However, for all Ballyburn disappointed at Kempton, he was awarded an RPR of 158 which is 4lb better than The Jukebox Man's best chase performance, 6lb better than Better Days Ahead and Croke Park's, 8lb better than Impaire Et Passe and 19lb better than Dancing City. 

That makes Ballyburn absolutely the one to beat and the 11-4 with Sky Bet non-runner no bet looks a fantastic price given he is 7-2 without the concession.

It is worth remembering that following Gaelic Warrior's defeat at Leopardstown last season, everyone assumed he would be running in the Turners or the Brown Advisory, yet he still turned up in the Arkle. I'd be surprised with Sir Gino looking so good if connections of Ballyburn followed the same path, but I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility if conditions were tough, as he would be stepping up to 3m for the first time at the festival. 

I certainly think it would be savvy to take the 11-4 NRNB rather than 7-2 just in case, and if he bounces back to the Ballyburn of last season on his next start, 11-4 could look almighty big come March.

Festival Fields:

Brown Advisory entries suffer and Lulamba in the Supreme as more major Cheltenham Festival contenders revealed 

Record-low entry for Brown Advisory in past 15 years despite axing of Turners 

Less choice has helped but multiple entries still leave plenty of unanswered Cheltenham questions for punters 

Sir Gino set for Game Spirit prep as Nicky Henderson opts to go down Altior route to Arkle 

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