Tom Segal believes avoiding the obvious is the best way to Ten To Follow success

Given the late start to the season and with limited evidence to go on, it seems very likely that many Tote Ten To Follow lists will be dominated by the recency bias.

That means Kameko and Love will be two of the most popular horses chosen despite the Guineas form being far from properly tested yet. Personally I have my doubts about how good the 2,000 Guineas was and would be keen to avoid Kameko in this competition.

Love looked superb in the 1,000 the following day but that race totally fell apart and she will face much better opposition when she goes up in trip as the season progresses.

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For me the best three-year-old performance so far this season came from English King in the Lingfield Derby Trial and he has to go in, while Palace Pier looked a top-class miler when winning at Newcastle.

Of course Love is going to be hard to beat in the Investec Oaks but Frankly Darling was very impressive when winning her maiden and she will no doubt stay that trip. She represents better Ten To Follow value than Love.

Frankly Darling: won easily at Newcastle at the start of JuneCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

In France, Raabihah looked superb on her comeback last month and she might well assert her dominance in middle-distance races over there before becoming a legitimate Arc contender.

As far as the three-year-old sprinters go, Pierre Lapin looked the real deal on both his starts and if he is as good as he appears to be he will have any number of bonus race opportunities.

That deals with the younger horses, and I think it's a good idea to include a high percentage of older horses because there is much less guesswork involved with them and they can run in the vast majority of bonus races.

I would rather have Logician than Enable this year and Japan is a no-brainer.

The three from left field who might make the difference are Lavender's Blue, who can rack up lots of points in fillies' races; Mubakker, who could be a top-class sprinter in the making after impressing at Newcastle recently; and Hamish, who will be up to taking on the best on soft ground.

Tom Segal's Ten To Follow

English King
Frankly Darling
Hamish
Japan
Lavender's Blue
Logician
Mubakker
Palace Pier
Pierre Lapin
Raabihah

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