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The must-have chasers for your Tote Ten To Follow list
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Anyone with designs on winning the Tote Ten To Follow should know that it is the chasers on their list that will do the vast majority of the heavy lifting.
The balance of Grade 1 events across the season might be fairly equal among chases and hurdles, but in the all-important bonus races it is decidedly lop-sided. Of the 15 races that carry an extra 25 points for winning, 11 are over fences.
The balance of chasers and hurdlers on your list should probably mirror that. You might be thinking that the window is anywhere from six to eight chasers, but the suggestion is to be bold and take at least seven.
The other consideration is that all 11 bonus chases are in Britain. The solution is not quite that simple because five of them are at the Cheltenham Festival, which is effectively a neutral venue. What is left are five marathon handicaps and the King George.
This all underlines the importance of including a backbone of staying handicap chasers in your list. My own list included two (potentially three) such horses: Cloth Cap, Mister Malarky and Wholestone.
There was an extra consideration in choosing those three, in that they cover the desired races seasonally. Mister Malarky is a true winter horse: he will go for the Ladbrokes Trophy and looks just the right type for that race, while his profile and his trainer's habits point towards a run in the Welsh National, assuming he does not endure a heavy fall or hard race at Newbury.
Another to consider in this category is De Rasher Counter. He ran well at Newbury and Chepstow as a novice last season, beating Walt at the former and finishing second to Now McGinty (who received 6lb) at the latter. His dam suited soft ground and indications are he will be the same. Now McGinty, who has form with both De Rasher Counter and Mister Malarky, is also likely to be a reasonably popular selection for the same races.
Cloth Cap is on my list to represent the spring horses, as the Grand National, Scottish National and bet365 Gold Cup all carry bonus points. Cloth Cap will need to improve to get in the Grand National, so will presumably be kept on the go for now before having a winter break. Remember that spring types can be added at the transfer window stage, just before Cheltenham (Tiger Roll is an obvious candidate for such transfers; don't include him just yet).
Also consider novices, as their record in the big spring marathons is excellent these days. These horses are unlikely to shoot the lights out prior to March so might be better seen as transfer acquisitions.
Nonetheless Wholestone, who could be an RSA type but more likely could run in the 888Sport Chase, a festival handicap or even one of the bonus handicaps, is one to have in mind from the off.
The very classiest staying novices, Champ and the like, are to be treated cautiously. Most trainers with such a horse in their care will mind them until the spring and it may be worth thinking of them as transfer options. Another reason for holding fire on top novices is that the Arkle and RSA are bonus races, but the JLT is not. That is not to say you should ignore these horses, but do not feel you need to include them all from the start.
The best staying chasers can go in from the start and, while the bonus races are both in Britain, one is the Gold Cup and the increased diet of Grade 1s in Ireland goes some way to redressing the balance with the King George. Taking one from each country is a viable option.
Defending Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo is reportedly having another light prep, while Kemboy's ownership situation remains unresolved, so there's room for a new dominant force in Ireland.
Delta Work is the obvious answer and he should be ready to compete in open Grade 1s having blown off the cobwebs at Down Royal recently. Also bear in mind Presenting Percy, who is reported to be a possible runner in the John Durkan and could have a more active campaign leading up to Cheltenham this time.
In Britain, Saturday's two big-race winners Lostintranslation and Cyrname are sure to be popular and rightly so. With the stamina he showed in the Betfair Chase, Lostintranslation is a leading contender for both the King George and the Gold Cup, with the small caveat that he has already run twice this season and may not have a busy midwinter as a result.
Cyrname is more of a King George type, but the Ryanair is not out of the question and it is likely he would take in the Ascot Chase in between. Given the continuing uncertainty over Altior's trip this season, it is not terribly easy to justify his inclusion pre-transfer window.
For chasers that will not get 3m or further, it seems best to stick with those who are likely to start around 2m. Grade 1 options around 2m4f in both Britain and Ireland are limited, so leave the Ryanair aside for now. That said, Defi Du Seuil could cover a few bases. His turn of foot will bring him plenty of joy in small-field graded races and he looks bound to be a player in either the Champion Chase or Ryanair.
The best Irish option is almost sure to be trained by Willie Mullins, but will come from a fairly long list that includes Min, Chacun Pour Soi or even Douvan or Footpad. Mullins is a creature of habit, so the inclination is to side with Min, who picked up three Grade 1s last year including the bonus Melling Chase.
The others seem that bit more likely to be saved for big days in the spring. This is yet another area in which your transfers could come into play, but as there are only two available it makes it vitally important that you choose wisely in the first instance.
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