Some names who can add essential winning spice to your Ten To Follow list

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Anyone who has played Fantasy Premier League in the last decade or so will know the value of differentials: that is, inclusions in their team that they will have in common with only a few others. It is a bit like spotting a 33-1 chance you fancy in a big-field handicap. Cheer when it hits the front and you will likely be on your own.

A successful Tote Ten To Follow stable may well follow a similar pattern. Yes, give most of your list to selecting likely types for the bonus races and Grade 1s, but also include one or two differentials to gain ground while the rest are standing still.

The racing programme has not changed to a huge degree since the Tote Ten To Follow last ran five years ago, but one major increase has been in Pattern races for mares. These races tend to be relatively uncompetitive and a mare rated in the mid-140s can rack up the points in the way an equivalent gelding could not, shy of winning a top handicap.

We saw something like that last year with Lady Buttons, who won four times last season including two Listed races and a Grade 2. She has the advantage of being able to mix hurdles and chases, although it remains to be seen whether her connections aim a bit higher this season after banking loads of black type in 2018-19.

The Bay Birch is rated even higher over fences by the BHA (RPRs have Lady Buttons slightly higher) and she is another to consider, but bear in mind she appeared to fail for stamina over three miles in testing ground at Market Rasen last time and many of the open chases for mares concentrate around that trip.

There is something of a gap in the division, which could be filled by Molly The Dolly if connections so choose. The caveat there is that they seem keen to keep her away from truly testing ground.

There is a possibility that a smart novice, such as Posh Trish, could step up into open company and win plenty of races, but the real opportunities lie in novice hurdles, in which she enjoyed plenty of joy last season.

There are no fewer than seven Pattern hurdles in Britain alone restricted to novice fillies and mares. Picking one who's likely to dominate is tough, but consider leading bumper performers like Getariver, The Glancing Queen and the Harry Fry-trained trio of Whitehotchillifili, Ishkara Lady or Misty Whisky. All of those mares are bred to thrive beyond bumper trips.

Opportunities in Ireland are arguably even greater, although how often we see the big names like Benie Des Dieux or Laurina (favourite for the Arkle, a bonus race) should give pause. They may also be thrown into open-sex company, and the tendency among Irish trainers is generally to test smart mares against geldings more often.

The theme in general is that if you are looking for a horse who will not run in bonus races, it had better run often and, ideally, in high-quality races that it can win. One of the most fertile grounds is handicap chases at Cheltenham over 2m4f/2m5f. These generally get weaker as the season goes on, but carry Grade 3 status all the way.

Happy Diva is more likely for these races now than mares' events, but has already won and her mark has suffered. So has Slate House's, in fairness, although he is unexposed and would be a contender in similar races if he brushes up his jumping.

He has an interesting stablemate in Highest Sun, who was second to another interesting type (Pym, who is more of a stayer but may have big handicaps in his sights before the season is out) at Ascot on Saturday.

Highest Sun shaped as though a left-handed track and shorter trip would be ideal. Whether he will run in the Grade 3 races at Cheltenham is a moot point (he needs one more run over fences to qualify), but he seems a likely type and is a wild card worth considering anyway as he more than likely has a big pot in him this winter.

Horses like Frodon are always worth considering, even though he has probably outgrown handicaps. He has options from two and a half miles to three miles and plenty of Listed and Graded races to choose from. Remember there is a newly promoted Grade 2 at Kempton in January over two and a half miles, which could be one for him more than King George-bound stablemate Cyrname.

A hurdling equivalent to Frodon could be Silver Streak, who is likely to come up short against the best 2m hurdlers but, provided a soft-ground, small-field graded race in midwinter could pick up a valuable win or two.

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