Bow Echo's 2,000 Guineas win was one of the best I've seen - but this is why I'd still rather be a layer than a player next time

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Saturday's 2,000 Guineas sure served as a reminder not to judge the quality of a Classic field based on juvenile form.

During the run-up to the season's opening Classic, I lost count of the number of times I read or heard someone say this year's Guineas was totally underwhelming with barely a proper top-class horse in sight, and have to say I was in total agreement.

For a start, I couldn't have Bow Echo being as short as 11-4 favourite ante-post based on a Racing Post Rating of 111 for beating Humidity by a length in the Royal Lodge. The runner-up had, after all, been beaten twice since winning a Chesham that wasn't working out great.

I suppose I got that bit right as Bow Echo ended up a 9-2 chance, but everything else was about as wrong as it could be as what we saw on Saturday was a proper top-drawer performance.

• 'Outstanding winner' Bow Echo rated joint-best 2,000 Guineas victor since Frankel 

Had Gstaad beaten the Guineas field by eight lengths, we would undoubtedly be hailing another Aidan O'Brien-trained Classic winner as a superstar ready to brighten up the whole season. But while Gstaad did beat most of the field by eight lengths and more, there just happened to be another horse two and three-quarter lengths ahead of him.

It was a jaw-dropping performance from Bow Echo and right up there with the best I've seen.

Bow Echo: a breakthrough winner for Billy LoughnaneCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Caution is the watchword when it comes to racing, though, and where Bow Echo stands among the great milers in Britain and Europe will depend on what he does from now on – and history suggests it's far from a given that he will dominate for the whole season.

There was a saying among the old farts when I was a lad that went like this: the fittest horse wins the Guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby, and the best horse wins the St Leger. Such generalisations are obviously nonsense, but it has to be said that in recent years it has been very hard for Newmarket Guineas winners to carry all before them into the summer and autumn.

Frankel, for instance, was the last Newmarket hero to go on to take the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day, and while not all of them went that route, most since him had done their winning by the Sussex Stakes. Here's a quick rundown of how they fared.

Camelot (2012)

Was never going to stay at a mile and bettered his neck victory at Newmarket with a five-length Derby success at Epsom. However, after winning a soft Irish Derby at odds of 1-5, he managed to win only one more race, a Group 3 at the Curragh as a four-year-old at odds of 1-3.

Dawn Approach (2013)

The horse whose 127 RPR was matched by Bow Echo. He had much better juvenile form, carrying a rating of 124 into the race, and blew his field away by five lengths at Newmarket. However, despite going off favourite every time afterwards, he managed to win just once. An obvious non-stayer when tailed off in the Derby, he scrambled home by a short head from Toronado in the St James's Palace, went down by half a length to the same horse in the Sussex and was then well beaten in the Prix Jacques le Marois and QEII.

Dawn Approach: easy winner of the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Night Of Thunder (2014)

Bow Echo's sire was a 40-1 winner of his Guineas from Kingman and didn't win another race at three, although he was placed in three Group 1s. He took the Lockinge as a four-year-old but was well below form on his final two outings and retired after beating only two in the Sussex.

Gleneagles (2015)

Followed up his Newmarket win with odds-on victories in the Irish version and the St James's Palace but missed the summer due to unseasonably slow ground and returned to finish only sixth of nine in the QEII. He was tailed off on his final outing, albeit in the Breeders' Cup Classic on dirt.

Galileo Gold (2016)

Won the St James's Palace following a short-priced Irish Guineas defeat but lost four times after that and completely lost his form in his final three runs, starting with an eighth of 11 in the Marois.

Churchill (2017)

Top juvenile who completed the Guineas double at the Curragh but ran four more times – three as favourite – and failed to win.

Churchill (near) holds off his rivals in the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Mark Cranham

Saxon Warrior (2018)

Went up in trip after his Guineas success. He was fourth when odds-on for the Derby, third in the Irish Derby and then went close in the Eclipse and Irish Champion. He can hardly be called a complete failure but ultimately his post-Guineas record reads 0-5.

Magna Grecia (2019)

Was the second string O'Brien horse when winning his Guineas and made only two subsequent appearances, finishing fifth in the Irish version and tailed off after a break in the QEII.

Kameko (2020)

Went off 5-2 favourite for the Derby after his success in but finished only fourth to all-the-way winner Serpentine. He did win the Group 2 Joel Stakes in September but was no better than fourth in three more attempts at Group 1 company.

Poetic Flare (2021)

Typically heavily raced by Jim Bolger, running in both French and Irish versions afterwards, but was beaten in both before bouncing back with a St James's Palace success. Certainly wasn't disgraced in three more Group 1s after that but didn't win any of them.

Poetic Flare: 16-1 winner of the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Edward Whitaker

Coroebus (2022)

Just got up to win the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot before failing to give his running when favourite for the Marois. He was in the process of making his challenge when sadly taking a fatal fall in the Prix de Moulin, so perhaps we didn't get to see how good he really was.

Chaldean (2023)

A commanding winner of his Guineas but a beaten favourite on his next two starts in the St James's Palace (second) and Marois (seventh) and then tailed off in the QEII.

Notable Speech (2024)

Still in training and every bit as good as he was when he won his Guineas, judged on his Grade 1 wins in Canada and at the Breeders' Cup last season. However, as a three-year-old he won only one of his four subsequent outings, the Sussex Stakes in July.

Ruling Court (2025)

Beat favourite Field Of Gold at Newmarket but was no match for that one when only third in the St James's Palace. He ran better in the Eclipse but was still only good enough for third before sadly succumbing to complications from laminitis the following month. Overall, the 14 winners of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket between Frankel and Bow Echo have run 71 times between them and managed to win just 14 – and they went off favourite or joint-favourite 40 times.

Frankel: eight from eight after the 2011 renewalCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

It doesn't make for great reading, although what's happened in the past doesn't necessarily predict the future. Frankel, after all, did go 8-8 after his Guineas.

This does serve as a reminder, however, that the Guineas is only the starting point in a season, and there's no guarantee that whatever happened on the first Saturday in May is going to be repeated throughout the campaign.

The racing fan in me dearly wants Bow Echo to prove the real deal, not least because it would be great for racing to have a superstar who doesn't run in the colours of Coolmore or Godolphin and instead races out of the yard of one of the brightest young trainers in Britain. I certainly can't wait to see him again.

But the hard-nosed punter in me knows that it is hard to keep a horse on the go throughout a whole campaign, especially one who has been made so obviously hard-fit so early in the season.

I'll be perfectly happy to end up on the wrong side of this, but when it comes to punting, I'll more than likely end up a layer than a player when Bow Echo next runs.

Read these next:

Newmarket star Bow Echo to skip Irish 2,000 Guineas as George Boughey reveals next move 

'He's a gorgeous horse' - Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore enjoy yet another Epsom trial success with Constitution River 

'He's ticked a box to go to Epsom' - all systems go for Derby with Benvenuto Cellini following dominant Vase victory 

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