Leopardstown a favoured stop-off for Cheltenham scorers

Many of us are poring over video replays to unearth those vital clues which could lead to winners at next week’s Cheltenham festival. So that you can make the most of the rapidly diminishing study time, I’ve explored the link between success at the festival and the course of a horse’s last run before the meeting to establish which courses are often final stop-offs for festival winners.

Record of runners at Cheltenham Festivals since 2010 by course of their final prep runs

The table in the above link shows since 2010 wins-runs records, strike-rates, profit-loss figures and Impact Values (IV) for the courses which were the last destinations for at least 20 horses who ran at festivals in this period. IV are calculated by dividing the percentage share of total festival winners which had their final prep runs at the course by the percentage share of total festival runners made up from such horses. The IV exceeds 1 only when the percentage share of winners is higher than the percentage share of runners.