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Does the effect of the draw in the Spring Mile hold up in the Lincoln?

Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster
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When it comes to the big-field hyper-competitive heritage handicaps like Saturday's Lincoln at Doncaster – in which the 22 runners will be spread by the width of the track – the draw can prove crucial . . .

Pace bias

The first clue for the Betway Lincoln came in Thursday's draw, which showed where the pace will likely come from.

There is a strong bias towards the low numbers in this year's Lincoln, with Eddystone Rock (5), George Cinq (6) and Dolphin Vista (10) all regular pacesetters and drawn in the lower half of the field.

Of those drawn in the higher numbers Zhui Feng (13), Instant Attraction (15) and Highland Colori (17) have all led in the past but more frequently look for a tow into the race from a prominent position.

Track bias

We will not know if there is a track bias until the Betway Spring Mile Handicap is run over the same course and distance at 2.25pm, 70 minutes before the Lincoln. We looked at the last ten runnings of both races to determine how accurate a guide the Spring Mile really is.

Year Ground Spring Mile 1-2-3-4 Lincoln 1-2-3-4
2016 Soft 4, 19, 20, 18 22, 2, 18, 21
2015 Good 8, 1, 18, 21 15, 6, 19, 12
2014 Soft 15, 16, 18, 14 3, 22, 20, 18
2013 Soft 16, 8, 20, 13 3, 1, 19,10
2012 Good 2, 7, 8, 12 12, 21, 9, 2
2011 Good 16, 19, 22, 10 16, 19, 6, 15
2010 Soft 19, 10, 12, 18 1, 5, 10, 14
2009 Good to Firm 9, 11, 2, 20 9, 2, 3, 20
2008 Good to Soft 17, 1, 2, 21 12, 3, 16, 5
2007 Good to Soft 14, 11, 12, 19 16, 7, 20, 17

Key stats from the last ten years

Lincoln winner has come from the exact same stall as the Spring Mile winner: twice

Lincoln winner has come from one of the first four stalls in the Spring Mile: three times

Lincoln winner has come from range of stalls suggested by the Spring Mile: five times

Three of the first four in the Spring Mile came from the same half of the draw (above or below 11): seven times

Three of the first four in the Lincoln came from the same half of the draw (above or below 11): five times

Lincoln winner has come from at least ten stalls away from Spring Mile winner: five times

Conclusion

There is a far more even distribution of pace in the Spring Mile than in the Lincoln, which means it could prove a fair reflection of any track bias, with likely pacesetters low, middle and high meaning every horse should get a fair pace to aim at.

If the Spring Mile suggests the track may favour those drawn low then expect the Lincoln to follow suit, but if it suggests a bias towards those drawn highest we could see a reversal in the Lincoln –as it has a very different pace set-up with all the speed horses drawn low.

Spring Mile card

Lincoln card

There is a strong bias towards the low numbers in this year's Lincoln, with the most likely pacesetters drawn in the lower half of the field
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