Dangers await but here's why flawless Shishkin should have all bases covered

Shishkin: held in high esteem by Nicky HendersonCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

1.55 Cheltenham
Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 2m | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

Unbeaten and untroubled in three races this season since landing last year’s Supreme, Shishkin is just 1-2 to give Nicky Henderson an opening day victory. But can any of his rivals prevent this contest turning into a coronation?

Allmankind is a pleasure to watch, a fast-twitch Shan Blue who along with that stablemate is cementing in the public imagination the expectations that will be attached to Dan Skelton-trained chasers over the next 20 years.

He is a class act who has skipped around Warwick and Sandown, recording a good time in the Henry VIII at the latter and giving weight and a heavy beating to long-time Grand Annual favourite Sky Pirate at the former.

Match practice over fences at Cheltenham is all he lacks, but he was third in last year's Triumph Hurdle and his previous chases offer more than adequate training. Harry Skelton is likely to be forceful and I'm looking forward to the spectacle. But Shishkin will probably distance him from two out.

Perhaps the most tantalising horse is Captain Guinness. On both previous tries in Grade 1s he has been in position to show his worth approaching the climax, only for the lid to be slammed shut. In last year's Supreme he was desperately unlucky to be brought down two out, while his fall at the same stage in the Irish Arkle last time was not the most incriminating of its type (got in tight and buckled on landing).

His form in lower grades has done nothing to debase the impression that he will be a Grade 1 challenger whenever he does make it to the end. He seemed to be the closest Energumene, withdrawn lame from this race last week, had to a worthy rival in this division in Ireland. But he has shown nothing within a stone of Shishkin's form.

The November novice chase-Arkle double was completed by Put The Kettle On last year, although this season's winner of the former race Eldorado Allen was fortunate and he has already been defeated by Shishkin. Whatever threat he posed when they met at Doncaster in January lasted about three strides and a tongue-tie could help him to sustain his effort. In truth, he would be better off in the Grand Annual off 149, which looks just a touch on the generous side. A top-end handicapper should not trouble Shishkin.

Although he ran in the Coral Cup last year, after winning the Racing Post Novice Chase on Boxing Day and finishing second to Energumene last time, Franco De Port has talked himself out of handicap company. With a more positive ride or a destructive pace up front, there is still a chance he could progress further and his form is already good enough on RPRs to have made the first three in each of the last five Arkles. He would have done well to bridge the ten lengths he had to find on Energumene, let alone whatever else Shishkin might have to offer.

Numitor is rated only 8lb above the level at which the BHA assessor could veto his participation. While an admirable handicapper, he shapes as though he might want further than 2m already and as a habitual front-runner his involvement is unlikely to extend beyond antagonising Allmankind over the early fences.

We do not know for how long Shishkin will retain the aura of phenomenon that currently surrounds him, nor how often we might see him in the coming years. Enjoy him while you can, basically, and do not spend too much time trying to get him beat. Only mishap is likely to manage that.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

Shishkin new team leader for Henderson

With Altior missing the Cheltenham Festival for the second year in a row Nicky Henderson was quick to appoint his apparent successor Shishkin as the captain of the Seven Barrows battalions.

That in itself may not be surprising. He is the 1-2 favourite for a Grade 1 and following a remarkably similar trajectory to his illustrious predecessor, from Supreme to Arkle taking in the same two Kempton races, but equally this is a team that boasts the reigning Champion Hurdler Epatante and potential Gold Cup hero Champ – so it is some indication of the esteem in which Henderson holds his latest two-mile superstar.

Shishkin: prepared for exercise at Seven Barrows by groom and work-rider Katie CroftCredit: Edward Whitaker

The comparisons between the two do not end there. This is a race Henderson has won more than any other trainer, most recently with Altior in 2017 but also with the likes of Simonsig (2013), Sprinter Sacre (2012), Tiutchev (2000), Travado (1993) and Remittance Man (1991) and if the hype is to be believed they are names with whom Shishkin's should sit very comfortably when all is said and done.

None of that is to say this will be a formality - Henderson is aware of the threat Allmankind presents - but you get the impression defeat would hit him even harder than Altior's late scratching.

Henderson said: "He's the tour leader now. He was in fantastic form and I've never been happier than I was on Friday. Allmankind will set us a stern test but I hope he's more than up to it."

Nugget: -£9.50

Since the turn of the millennium 28 five-year-olds have gone to post in the Arkle, with just Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes successful. A further three, including Fakir D'Oudairies last year, have finished second with four thirds for a loss of £9.50 to a £1 stake. Allmankind is the only five-year-old in this year's race.

What they say

Dan Skelton, trainer of Allmankind
I cannot wait for it. He’s in good form, he looks fantastic and I’ve got no worries about the track. I’m just really excited about it and I think he’s as good as I can have him. Match on!

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Captain Guinness
This lad is in great form. He was very fresh on Monday morning and looked great. I've been very happy with him in the lead-up to the race.

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin, trainer of Eldorado Allen
It was a close one as to whether to go for this or the Grand Annual but as there's so few runners and with the prize-money so good we thought we'd give him a crack at it. He's got course form but he's got to find a fair bit with Shishkin on the Doncaster run albeit he's in better form now. It only takes a small mishap and he's right in the place money.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Franco De Port
He was second to Energumene in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown but this is over a furlong shorter which won’t be to his advantage. However, he is a Grade 1 winner and is fit and well so could get into the shake-up.

Heather Main, trainer of Numitor
We like him very much, he's up against some big stars but he's got his experience and the races he's won he has done so impressively. We're ready to take our chance and we think he's a talented horse, otherwise we wouldn't be in it.
Reporting by Stuart Riley

Tuesday's race previews:

1.20 Cheltenham: will the cream rise to the top in smallest Supreme field in modern history?

2.30 Cheltenham: Happygolucky has 'outstanding chance' to bring Bass and Bailey glory in Ultima

3.05 Cheltenham: Goshen goes in search of redemption for Moores in Champion Hurdle

A champion on the wane and a challenger ready to reign: who wins the big clash? (Members' Club)

Who do racing's finest experts fancy to win a vintage Champion Hurdle (Members' Club)

3.40 Cheltenham: can Concertista take her place among greats in quality running?

4.15 Cheltenham: Mullins hoping drop in class pays dividends for Saint Sam and Youmdoor in Boodles

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He's got endless stamina' – smart stayers clash in National Hunt Chase