Will the cream rise to the top in smallest Supreme field in modern history?

1.20 CheltenhamSky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m½f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

This year's festival has been billed as the Cheltenham like no other and there is no better example than in this opening Grade 1, which has attracted its smallest field in modern history.

With the meeting behind closed doors, owners not allowed and the Irish challenge depleted by the complications of travelling horses in a pandemic, only eight run, which will change the nature of the race.

The two smallest Supreme fields in the last ten years were made up of 12 runners and those two races were dominated by form horses towards the head of the market.

In 2013, Champagne Fever made virtually all and the first three home were the first three in the market. Two years later, another Willie Mullins-trained star was successful as Douvan justified 2-1 favouritism, and three of the top four in the market filled the first four places.

The absence of the traditional Cheltenham roar means a cavalry charge to the first may not materialise so can we conclude that Mullins-trained front-runner Appreciate It will dominate?

That would probably have been the case but for the declaration of For Pleasure throwing a spanner in the works. That rival is a tearaway front-runner who will make life difficult.

Appreciate It made all when beating the three other Irish-trained runners Ballyadam, Blue Lord and Irascible in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month and is a big, galloping type who looked suited by dominating. Is he versatile enough to cope should the race not go his way?

His supporters will point to his three wins that were achieved without a lead and say yes. However, he was picked off on the run-in by Ferny Hollow in the Champion Bumper at this fixture last year after failing to gain an uncontested early lead, so as to the question of whether he can win without dominating throughout, the jury is still out for me.

This is a race that has changed significantly this century. It was once the preserve of classy ex-Flat performers but, with so many valuable Flat prizes available at home and big offers coming from abroad, those horses have generally disappeared from the hurdling landscape.

However, there is an exception in this year's race in the shape of Metier, who was a smart 88-rated Flat performer in Ireland for Andrew Slattery and looks an even better hurdler.

Metier was bought for 150,000gns in October 2019 and is unbeaten in three over obstacles for Harry Fry, with his latest win coming by a wide margin in the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown.

All of those wins have come on soft or heavy ground and his sire Mastercraftsman's progeny have gained a reputation for liking some cut, but that isn't necessarily borne out in the figures.

Mastercraftsman's offspring have a 13 per cent strike-rate (103-811) on good to soft or quicker ground in jumps races and that is significantly better than the nine per cent (31-350) achieved by his jumps runners on soft or heavy.

The Supreme often tells us exactly how testing Cheltenham is riding. Whichever way it falls – and the only certainty at the time of writing appears to be that it is either soft or good to soft – Metier should have it covered. That would not necessarily apply to all of his seven rivals.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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'He's impressed in everything he's done'

Harry Fry believes there is no reason why leading contender Metier cannot continue to "climb the ladder" when he attempts to maintain his unbeaten record for the trainer against a strong Irish challenge.

The five-year-old, who has won his three last starts by a combined 27 and a half lengths, was last seen finishing 12 lengths clear of Shakem Up'Arry in the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices' Hurdle at Sandown.

Metier: was an impressive winner of the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle at Sandown in JanuaryCredit: Edward Whitaker

"We couldn't be more pleased with his preparation," said Fry. "We were delighted with the rain on Sunday evening. We've kept him fresh for this race and we're really excited about his chances.

"He won the Tolworth really well and has impressed in everything he's done in three starts for us. He'll have to progress again but there's no reason why he can't keep climbing the ladder."

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer of Appreciate It and Blue Lord
Appreciate It has done nothing wrong this season and is in tip-top shape. He was second in last year's Champion Bumper so we know he'll handle the track. We're very happy with him and hopefully he'll get our meeting off to a good start. Blue Lord jumps very well and ran a good race when third to Appreciate It last time. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him finish in the first three.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Ballyadam and Irascible
Ballyadam seems good. He travelled without any hiccups. I know people might say the ground softening is not to his advantage, but it will be lovely, fresh ground and I'm sure he'll cope fine with it. Irascible has been running well all season and I've been very happy with him. He should run well.

Alex Hales, trainer of For Pleasure
He came out of Newbury well and deserves to take his chance. He was giving weight away in the Betfair Hurdle and is 11lb better off with the winner. He's adaptable in terms of ground, having won the Grade 2 trial on soft ground at Cheltenham. We'll try to make the running and hopefully save enough for the second half of the race. It's a competitive contest but we're looking forward to running him.

Chris Honour, trainer of Grumpy Charley
On ratings there isn't too much for him to find and he beat a good horse last time in Eamon An Cnoic giving away a lot of weight. He's in great form and has improved with every run this season. If he improves as much as he did last time then he could be flying. The rain will help his chances too. It's obviously a competitive race but we're going there without fear and believe he has a decent chance.

Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Soaring Glory
He's in grand form and came out of winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury well. He's taking on some good horses and the ground getting softer probably wouldn't help him but we'll take our chance.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Why we don't fancy Appreciate It . . .

The tactical conundrum for Paul Townend was tough even before factoring in For Pleasure. If the ground really is testing, then an end-to-end gallop might suit but otherwise it is fancied that others have a greater change of gear than he does. In what is likely the smallest Supreme field ever, you still fancy that Metier and Soaring Glory would do Appreciate It for speed. I can see more improvement from Ballyadam and Irascible, too, while what's good for Appreciate It would also suit stablemate Blue Lord. Dangers abound.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

Appreciate It: won the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle last monthCredit: Patrick McCann/Racing Post

Appreciate It looks a soft-ground stayer to me who will end up over further. He hasn't taken on the speedier British pair of Metier and Soaring Glory yet, and I'll happy enough to lay him. Given the rain they've just had, he promises to remain a warm order, but I'll be happy to lay him at the price.
Paul Kealy, top tipster

It's not that I don't like Appreciate It, how can you not given his resume, it's just that he hasn't separated himself by anywhere near as much as his price would suggest. Last time he really should have won far more easily than he did given that he had the run of the race off moderate fractions and while this isn't a big field, there are at least three who have a legitimate shot at beating him.
Tom Segal, Pricewise

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3.40 Cheltenham: can Concertista take her place among greats in quality running?

4.15 Cheltenham: Mullins hoping drop in class pays dividends for Saint Sam and Youmdoor in Boodles

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He's got endless stamina' – smart stayers clash in National Hunt Chase

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