Keith Melrose believes there is only one viable alternative to Envoi Allen

1.20 Cheltenham
Marsh Novices' Chase (Grade 1) | 2m4f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

You could have filled an eight-page pullout on the ruminating about Envoi Allen's move from Gordon Elliott to Henry de Bromhead just a couple of weeks before the Cheltenham Festival. What trainers think, what the statistics say, his relationship with his lass and so on.

None of these can get to the heart of the matter and punters would be as well to channel the old joke that has the punchline 'The Russians used a pencil'. Basically, moving stables two weeks out from his big target is hardly likely to help, is it?

It is not as though Envoi Allen has stones to play with in terms of form shown. He is only 2lb clear on Racing Post Ratings, from Chatham Street Lad whose Caspian Caviar Gold Cup win admittedly is more handicapper-friendly than Envoi Allen's breezy successes in small-field novice races. He has half a stone on everything else.

The reason Envoi Allen is so short is down to what the form figures do not currently tell you, so say his acolytes. What we know about Envoi Allen is that he can run to about 165 on the bridle, the rest can only have been inferred.

He is often compared with his erstwhile stablemate Samcro, which can be a little convenient and simplistic but is pertinent in one sense. Samcro is not a trend, but a fable. Beware of declaring a superstar before they show you what they have to give off the bridle.

In spite of that caveat, it can probably be taken that Envoi Allen has the most ability out of any horse in the race. While the way he takes his fences would also make it reasonable to call him a natural at his new discipline, he is not the best jumper in this field. That title belongs to Shan Blue, whose own technique is exceptional, almost otherworldly.

If there is a drawback with Shan Blue, it is the possibility that his jumping alone has carried him this far. He beat The Big Breakaway by three and three-quarter lengths in the Kauto Star and made many times that at the last five fences alone. On the other side, he might well have arrived here as a dual Grade 1 winner but for being softened up by a pace battle in the Scilly Isles, out of which Sporting John took advantage.

Besides the enigmatic Asterion Forlonge, it seems unlikely Shan Blue will face so much competition up front this time. It all adds up to making him the clear each-way choice in the race.

Few of the other market principals have so much as contested a Graded chase. Chantry House was third in last year's Supreme but has paddled in small-field everyday novices so far, recording a couple of impressive victories. Chatham Street Lad's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup win is the only Graded race he has contested in his 21 starts, although it is compelling evidence on its own.

That can be either evidence for them having the potential to improve past Shan Blue, or used to suggest that the streetwise, sure-footed front-runner is the solid one with which to take on Envoi Allen. What cannot be denied is that the race revolves around the favourite. Let us hope we at least get to see what he is holding behind the bridle today.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

'Like all those really good horses, he knows he's good'

Presence. That is the word Henry de Bromhead used when asked what struck him most about Envoi Allen when he arrived in Knockeen a fortnight ago.

"Obviously, I haven't had him long but the one thing that struck me about him was his presence," the trainer said.

"He's got real presence. Like all those really good horses, he knows he's good. Everything has gone smoothly with him since he's arrived and I'm looking forward to seeing how he gets on. He's travelled over lovely and seems to be very well in himself."

Envoi Allen was never beaten when trained by Gordon Elliott. He won all of his 11 starts in straightforward fashion and has been a very skimpy price for this ever since his former trainer revealed it would be his main target back in October.

Switching stables so close to the festival is obviously a worry for punters who have included him in multiples and are tempted to get stuck in at odds-on, but nothing seems to faze Envoi Allen and it is doubtful a change of address will either.

Regular groom Seainin Mahon will play a big part in his preparation before the race, while Jack Kennedy keeps the ride, so there is some continuity there. The winning streak is likely to continue too.

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What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer of Asterion Forlonge and Blackbow
Asterion Forlonge jumped well for Patrick [Mullins] the last day and if Paul [Townend] gets him into a good rhythm, he could be placed behind the hotpot Envoi Allen. Blackbow had a promising enough run last time. He jumped well and hopefully going up in trip will bring about improvement.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Chantry House and Fusil Raffles
We've all got a big task against Envoi Allen, but I'm hopeful we can give him some sort of a race. Chantry House was great at Wetherby and he's been in very good form since. He was really good the first time he was at Cheltenham but the next time he didn't jump so well, but we've solved that problem. Fusil Raffles has been off since Cheltenham [in December] but he's in great shape. The more it dries out the better.

Mick Winters, trainer of Chatham Street Lad
He has thrived since he came over and he’s coming better into this race than he did when he won here in December. Envoi Allen will be hard to beat, but our horse is very comfy and he’ll love the ground.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Darver Star
Envoi Allen looks almost unbeatable but the ground is going to be very much in our favour and I’m looking forward to stepping Darver Star up in trip. You can put a line through his last run as the ground was too soft for him and my horses weren’t firing at the time. His run before that was a good solid effort. I’m confident we have him in good nick.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Shan Blue
I'm looking forward to getting him on some better ground. I've been very happy with his preparation and he carries some high-class form through from the winter. We're very positive and happy. Envoi Allen is a superstar who is going to be hard to be beat, but hopefully we can get into a nice rhythm.
Reporting by David Jennings

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