Happygolucky has 'outstanding chance' to bring Bass and Bailey more glory

2.30 Cheltenham
Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) | 3m1f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

Most staying handicap chases from this point on in the season give plenty of opportunities to novices who have had time to gain experience while remaining less exposed than most of those they will face.

Considering how many novices win the Scottish National, bet365 Gold Cup and even the Ultima itself – four of the last ten renewals have been won by them – it is surprising how few take the most direct route. Only 23 runners in the last ten years have run four times or fewer over fences, that is little more than half the number of similarly inexperienced types in the Grand Annual.

Restricting the search in that manner actually misses off three of the four novice winners of this race. The other, Un Temps Pour Tout, was the reigning French Champion Hurdler when he won his first Ultima in 2016, so hardly lacked any general experience.

Novice status is a label, but it is the unexposed that you want. Those with fewer than nine previous chase runs include six of ten winners, 23 of 40 placed horses, all from less than 42 per cent of runners in that time. The impact values – 1.43 win, 1.38 place – are one thing, but they provide real-world value too with just 5.47 expected wins and 1.10 actual-over-expected winners.

From a strict trends perspective, this works against Happygolucky, who has three chase runs – the minimum allowed – and One For The Team. The latter has tracked the route followed by his stablemate Coo Star Sivola, the 2018 winner, and is expected to be suited by better ground than he encountered last time.

The Ultima also has a history of providing joy to returning types. Vintage Clouds, who has a record of F328 in the last four renewals, looks increasingly hard to catch right, but last year's Kim Muir winner Milan Native probably counts too.

The positive record front runners have over fences at Cheltenham must also be remembered. The would-be winners there are the likeable Aye Right and Alnadam. Do not worry about the latter's stamina – three miles has been his trip all along.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

Kim Bailey, trainer of Happygolucky
He's had a good season and is unlucky not to be unbeaten. He's rated 147 and we've not run him over the winter because we didn't fancy running him on soft so he's going there fresh. He's athletic and so far has been unaffected by the big occasion. He's uncomplicated, professional and he's got an outstanding chance.

Harriet Graham, trainer of Aye Right
He's really well and has every right to be there on what he's done this season, so we're going for it. He's been knocking on the door all season to win one and it's been a tiny bit frustrating coming up short. However, if he had won those races he'd be 8lb higher than what we are now.

Aye Right: has turned in some excellent performances over fences this seasonCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Nick Williams, trainer of One For The Team
I think he's got to run to about 147 to win and I hope he can, based on his Newbury form in the autumn, and I think he’s developed since then. We can put a line through Doncaster because it didn’t suit him to travel overnight, the ground was tacky and the race went wrong.

Denise Foster, trainer of Milan Native
He's had a wind op since you saw him last. He won the Kim Muir last year and, if he got back to that sort form, he would have a decent each-way shout.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Alnadam
We’ve kept him away from three miles until now. The rain they’ve had is a positive for him. He’s a novice, he’s unexposed and progressive so he’s all the things you want for this type of race. I’ve got no negatives with him.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Pym and Ok Corral
They're both still in the Grand National and that's where they're heading. They're in good form, Ok Corral's been working very well and has been ready for some time while Pym is good fresh.

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Discordantly
He hasn’t been on his best behaviour lately but if he puts in a clear round he could have a good chance. Those fences are a little more forgiving so hopefully he can run well. If he returned to his Troytown form he would have a good chance.

Victor Dartnall, trainer of Admiral's Secret
He's ready to be stepping up to three miles but it's not ideal to be doing that in this race. He's had a trouble-free preparation from his last run, where he ran really well behind Two For Gold and Aso.

Olly Murphy, trainer of The Wolf
He's going to have to improve dramatically on what he's shown on his last few runs but he does have plenty of ability. We'll ride him differently and drop him in, if he gets out of bed on the right side he could run well at a big price.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Delire D'Estruval
He's a horse that should give a good account of himself but whether he's got enough movement in his mark to be winning I'm not sure. He'll handle any ground really so there are no worries on that front.
Reporting by Tom Ward

Tuesday's race previews:

1.20 Cheltenham: will the cream rise to the top in smallest Supreme field in modern history?

1.55 Cheltenham: dangers await but here's why Shishkin should have all bases covered in Arkle

3.05 Cheltenham: Goshen goes in search of redemption for Moores in Champion Hurdle

A champion on the wane and a challenger ready to reign: who wins the big clash? (Members' Club)

Who do racing's finest experts fancy to win a vintage Champion Hurdle (Members' Club)

3.40 Cheltenham: can Concertista take her place among greats in quality running?

4.15 Cheltenham: Mullins hoping drop in class pays dividends for Saint Sam and Youmdoor in Boodles

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He's got endless stamina' – smart stayers clash in National Hunt Chase

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