Can Concertista take her place among the greats with victory in vintage running?

3.40 Cheltenham
Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m4f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

The median Racing Post Rating for all 13 winners of this mares’ feature is 150 and this year's race looks like it will be a vintage running because the two principals are far better than that.

Willie Mullins has won it on nine occasions, including six times with Quevega, but only once did the outstanding mare better an RPR of 156 (157 in 2011) when winning this race and that gives you an idea of how good Mullins' lead representative this year, Concertista, might be.

Concertista achieved an RPR of 156 when landing a 2m4f Grade 3 at Leopardstown last time and has recorded progressive figures on her last four starts. Her latest victory was a 5lb improvement on her previous best and if she makes similar progress she could better 157.

Only Quevega and Honeysuckle have achieved that figure in this race, so come Tuesday night she could easily be the best mare ever to have won it, and she's still only seven.

It won't be as easy as it sounds, though, because Roksana won this two years ago with an RPR of 150 and equalled Concertista’s 156 figure when landing a Grade 2 at Ascot last time.

The pair have upwards of 8lb in hand of their nearest rival and it should be a match. Time is on Concertista's side, though, and she surely has more scope for improvement than Roksana. She is two years younger and already as good. This is her chance to confirm herself top-class.

The expansion of the mares' programme in recent years has largely been about the future of the jumping game from a breeding perspective and victory for Concertista would continue the remarkable success that sire Nathaniel has enjoyed with his select crop of jumping offspring.

His progeny have a 17 per cent strike-rate (63-368) in hurdles and chases in Britain and Ireland, so it's unlikely that Concertista will be allowed to go on and emulate Quevega. She is already a valuable asset for the breeding sheds and would be even more so with a win here.

However, it's worth noting that the recent history of this race is littered with upsets.

Who could forget 1-2 hotpot Annie Power’s last-flight fall in 2015? Limini was a beaten 6-4 favourite in 2017 and Apple's Jade got turned over as a 1-2 chance the following year.

Even when it looked like there could be no more drama 10-11 favourite Benie Des Dieux fell at the last in 2019. It might only be 14 years old, but few races have such an eventful history.

Indefatigable has a penchant for the dramatic herself and she became one of the biggest priced in-running festival winners of all time when landing last year's Martin Pipe.

She was only fifth jumping the last but rocketed up the run-in to get up and beat Pileon after being matched at a high of 910 on Betfair, so it's probably wise to expect the unexpected.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'Rain will have done Roksana the world of good'

With Allmankind taking on Shishkin in the Sporting Life Arkle (1.55) Dan Skelton will have already played one of his stable aces by the time Roksana lines up here.

The winner of this race in 2019 when profiting from the final-flight fall of Benie Des Dieux, Roksana takes on another Mullins hotpot in Concertista.

Having stuck with the original plan to drop her back in trip to take on her own sex, Skelton is hugely positive about the nine-year-old's chances.

Roksana (pink silks, centre) pushed Thyme Hill (left) and Paisley Park all the way over 3m at Ascot in DecemberCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

"This is the best we've ever had her," said Skelton. "Her racing this year has been at three miles and we’re dropping back to two and a half because it's a mares' race so why not have a go at it again. We think we carry some of the best form into this."

With Concertista being bought off the Flat and showing brilliant acceleration here 12 months ago, the Roksana team will be keen for the race not to turn tactical.

"Concertista's going to be hard to beat, she's the younger one who's got it laid out ahead of her," said Skelton. "But Roksana is consistent, she's as well as I can have her and like I've said all along, she was always going to run in this race until she wasn't. That rain will have done her the world of good."

Punting nugget

Winning festival form is a guiding star for many punters and in addition to Roksana's 2019 success in this race, the field features three winners from the 2020 meeting: Concertista ran away with the Mares' Novices Hurdle; Dame De Compagnie got the better of Black Tears in the Coral Cup; and Indefatigable timed it just right to snatch the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle under Rex Dingle, who resumes the partnership here.

What they say

Denise Foster, trainer of Black Tears
She's going back to Cheltenham for the third year in a row and we know she likes the place from her two runs there. All her form suggests that she comes to herself in the spring and she had a nice confidence-booster at Punchestown last time. She's in great from and could reach the frame.

Great White Shark (yellow sleeves) goes clear in the biggest staying handicap of the year on the Flat, the CesarewitchCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Willie Mullins, trainer of Concertista, Great White Shark and My Sister Sarah
Concertista bolted up in the mares’ novice here last year and the longer trip will be no bother to her. We're expecting her to come out on top again here. Great White Shark ran a cracker here in the Martin Pipe last year and has each-way prospects. My Sister Sarah has had a wind operation since her last run and could be placed at a big price.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Dame De Compagnie and Floressa
It's going to be a very competitive race with Concertista and I think Roksana's the one to beat, but we run two good fillies. I was rather hoping for better ground, I walked around yesterday and thought it was quite slow then but they've had a whole lot more rain since. I was hoping we'd be getting on to some good ground which would help them.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Dolcita
I've been delighted with her. We always knew she'd come on for the run at Warwick, as we hadn't had her long after having the wind op. We're looking forward to it.

Paul Webber, trainer of Indefatigable
I've been very pleased with her and everything has gone nicely. She's done a couple of good bits of work away from home, but I am a bit depressed by the 10mm they had on Sunday night. She does want better spring ground, but she's in good form and always run well there.

Indefatigable and Rex Dingle (navy blue cap) return to the scene of their triumph in the 2020 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleCredit: Jonathan Grossick

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Minella Melody
It's a tough race, but she's been moving nicely since she came over and could run a really nice race.

Harry Fry, trainer of Whitehotchillifili
She's got to bounce back after disappointing last time but she was a good winner of a Listed race in January. Obviously she's got plenty to find with the main protagonists but she was sixth in the mares' novice hurdle last year and if she finishes in the top six here it would be a very good run.
Reporting by Scott Burton

Tuesday's race previews:

1.20 Cheltenham: will the cream rise to the top in smallest Supreme field in modern history?

1.55 Cheltenham: dangers await but here's why Shishkin should have all bases covered in Arkle

2.30 Cheltenham: Happygolucky has 'outstanding chance' to bring Bass and Bailey glory in Ultima

3.05 Cheltenham: Goshen goes in search of redemption for Moores in Champion Hurdle

A champion on the wane and a challenger ready to reign: who wins the big clash? (Members' Club)

Who do racing's finest experts fancy to win a vintage Champion Hurdle (Members' Club)

4.15 Cheltenham: Mullins hoping drop in class pays dividends for Saint Sam and Youmdoor in Boodles

4.50 Cheltenham: 'He's got endless stamina' – smart stayers clash in National Hunt Chase

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