Who wins the Paddy Power Gold Cup? Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the big-race contenders

Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham) is the big race of the weekend, with Paul Nicholls' Turners Novices' Chase winner Stage Star the favourite to provide his trainer with a third victory in the prestigious handicap chase. Here we assess his claims, along with the other leading contenders.

Stage Star

Form 121115-

Strengths Was pulled up in the Ballymore last year on his first start at Cheltenham but has proved his effectiveness at the track since, winning a competitive novice handicap chase off top weight in January and then following up with Grade 1 victory in the Turners at the festival. Has a good record first time out, is a sound jumper and is clearly a Grade 1 talent.

Harry Cobden celebrates on Stage Star after winning the Turners Novices' Chase in MarchCredit: John Grossick

Weaknesses Not many. He was below-par in the Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree when last seen but that came at the end of a long season. Likes to front-run so a battle for the lead with The Real Whacker may not be ideal.

Odds 4-1f

What they say

Paul Nicholls (in his Racing Post stable tour): "He's in great shape and we're going straight to the Paddy Power Gold Cup as he's best fresh. He won't mind what the ground is like. Of course, he'll have a stiff task at the top of the handicap, but he loves Cheltenham, having won two of his three starts round there, and he has to go left-handed."

Stage Star14:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Harry Cobden Tnr: Paul Nicholls

Unexpected Party

Form 232353-1

Strengths The form of his Listed win at Chepstow on return was boosted when runner-up Knappers Hill bolted up at Wincanton on Saturday. Ran to a decent level last season and a mark of 146 could underestimate him. Second-season chasers tend to fare well in the Paddy Power.

Unexpected Party: strong fancy for Dan SkeltonCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Weaknesses This will be his first test out of novice company as a chaser and he was soundly beaten twice by Stage Star at Cheltenham last season.

Odds 5-1

What they say

Dan Skelton, trainer: "Unexpected Party is a second-season chaser and historically they have always had a pretty good record in this race. I'm very hopeful that he will go there with as much of a chance as you can hope for as he is the ideal type of horse for this race. He's a good traveller and a slick jumper, and I don't want to put the mockers on him with a comment like that, but that is what he's good at, and that is what you need for a race like this."

Unexpected Party14:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Dan Skelton

The Real Whacker

Form 0111-

Strengths A chaser of the highest quality and the only horse to have beaten Gold Cup second favourite Gerri Colombe when landing the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase with a brilliant jumping display from the front. All three of his wins and starts over fences have come at Cheltenham, including over this trip in the Grade 2 Dipper Novices' Chase.

The Real Whacker: has a superb record at CheltenhamCredit: Edward Whitaker

Weaknesses The highest-rated runner in the field and is set to carry 12st. In the last 20 runnings, only one top weight has prevailed, Al Ferof in 2012. Has much bigger targets on the agenda this season so may not be fully wound up for his reappearance.

Odds 7-1

What they say

Patrick Neville, trainer: "We're starting him off at Cheltenham because it will be nice ground. He's won over two and a half miles round there before. It's his first run of the season so if he finishes in the first four or five we'll be happy. We have a serious horse, we don't have to run him in the Paddy Power to know that, but there aren't a major amount of races to start him off in."

The Real Whacker14:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Patrick Neville

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Notlongtillmay

Form 1112-4

Strengths Romped to two wide-margin novice victories over fences over this sort of trip in the run-up to the Cheltenham Festival and then ran a huge race to finish second to Stage Star in the Turners. Scope for more improvement now in his second season chasing and a solid run over an inadequate two-mile trip on his comeback at Cheltenham last month should leave him spot on for this.

Notlongtillmay (left) jumps alongside Stage Star in the TurnersCredit: John Grossick

Weaknesses Only in receipt of 3lb from Stage Star with a three-and-a-quarter-length deficit to make up based on their Turners efforts. Still inexperienced – his reappearance was the first time running in a double-figure field – and trainer Laura Morgan is still waiting for her first Cheltenham winner.

Odds 15-2

What they say

Alan Rogers, owner: "Everything we have asked him to do he has always done really well. He was only beaten just over three lengths in the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival and I felt if he was a bit more experienced he might have been closer. I thought his run on his comeback at Cheltenham was exceptional carrying 12 stone after a long layoff over a trip that was too short for him. I think that will put him bang on for this race."

Notlongtillmay14:20 Cheltenham

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: L J Morgan

Fugitif

Form 21225-

Strengths Became a standing dish in these types of Cheltenham handicaps last season, putting up huge efforts in the three he contested but always finding one too good as he finished runner-up on each occasion. Relishes soft ground so the more rain that falls the better.

Fugitif: runner-up in this race last yearCredit: Getty Images

Weaknesses Flew up the handicap last season and after starting the campaign off a mark of 131, he ended it rated 153. Was beaten 32 lengths when tried in Grade 1 company at Aintree in April, and the fear is the handicapper will have caught up to him.

Odds 15-2

Fugitif14:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Richard Hobson

Other contenders

Like Fugitif, Il Ridoto appeared in almost all of Cheltenham's major two-and-a-half-mile handicaps last season, finishing fourth in this race and on New Year's Day before succeeding on Trials day at the end of January. He was sixth when attempting to follow up in the Plate at the festival and is 6lb higher than when winning.

The lightly raced nine-year-old Angels Breath returned after a three-year absence last season and could be well handicapped based on his novice form from 2019. He still needs to prove that ability remains, although trainer Sam Thomas would have been pleased with his preparation for this when he ran a fine race carrying top weight over hurdles last month.

Galway Plate runner-up Authorized Art could bid to give Willie Mullins a first Paddy Power winner, while Gavin Cromwell, who had three winners at Cheltenham's last meeting, could send over Final Orders. The Ben Pauling-trained Harper's Brook attracted some each-way support following confirmations on Monday.

Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham, Saturday)

Paddy Power: 4-1 Stage Star, 5-1 Unexpected Party, 7-1 The Real Whacker, 15-2 Fugitif, Notlongtillmay, 11-1 Angels Breath, 12-1 Authorized Art, Il Ridoto, 14-1 Final Orders, Whistleinthedark, 16-1 Black Gerry, Easy As That, Harpers Brook, 20-1 Torn And Frayed, 33-1 Mr Saxobeat, Sebastapol, Zhiguli

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