Who will win the Oaks and Derby based on previous trends?

Sandown hosts Group 1 action on Saturday with the Coral-Eclipse (3.35) taking centre stage. We've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help you find the winner.

*This article was first published in the Racing Post Weekender, available in most retailers and readable online for those with a Racing Post+ Ultimate subscription

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Coral-Eclipse

Ascot hero on pole

Ombudsman was catapulted to favouritism after his breathtaking display in the Prince of Wales's Stakes and it's no surprise that the Royal Ascot feature – staged over the same trip as the Eclipse – is the go-to race for older horses.

Five of the last eight winners aged four or above had contested this Group 1, finishing 22143. Nine of the last 30 winners were beaten in the race, which offers some optimism for runner-up Anmaat reversing those placings.

That said, no seven-year-old has ever won the Eclipse, with its oldest winner being inaugural winner Bendigo, a six-year-old who hit the jackpot in 1886 when this race was the richest race in Britain.

Ombudsman would appear to be improving at a rate of knots and, at the peak of his powers at the age of four, he's the rightful market leader.

Ombudsman storms to success in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes

Ombudsman: Prince of Wales's winner is favourite for the Coral-EclipseCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Sosie is another progressive four-year-old and will be master French trainer Andre Fabre's first runner in the race since Diamond Green trailed home last behind Oratorio in 2005.

Youngsters on a roll

The Classic generation has the wind in its sails after capturing seven of the last ten runnings and now seek a fifth on the bounce. However, bear in mind that they still trail their elders by 37 victories to 23 since the Eclipse was opened to all age groups in 1965.

Camille Pissarro fans can take heart that six of Aidan O'Brien's eight winners were three-year-olds – Giant's Causeway, Hawk Wing, Oratorio, St Mark's Basilica, Paddington and City Of Troy.

Ryan Moore and Camille Pissarro: French Derby winners

Camille Pissarro: bids to provide Aidan O'Brien with a ninth win in the Coral-EclipseCredit: Hugo Mathy (Getty Images)

Not that all of the stable's three-year-olds have covered themselves in glory at Sandown. Between the victories of Oratorio in 2005 and St Mark's Basilica in 2021, O'Brien also saddled 16 losing three-year-olds including the strongly fancied Rip Van Winkle, Viscount Nelson, Mars, The Gurkha, Cliffs Of Moher and Saxon Warrior, all of whom were 11-2 or shorter.

Before winning at Chantilly, Camille Pissarro finished third in the French 2,000 Guineas and that also bodes well. Ten successful three-year-olds prior to Golden Horn in 2015 had contested a Guineas of some description, as had subsequent three-year-old winners Roaring Lion, St Mark's Basilica, Paddington and City Of Troy.

However, against Newmarket hero Ruling Court is that he's unraced beyond a mile. Only four of the last 15 winners lacked winning form over the big-race distance of ten furlongs and the latest exception was Derby hero City Of Troy. Horses stepping up from a mile are 1-18 in the last 16 runnings. The winner was the exceptional Paddington.

Ruling Court: could be some doubt over his Derby participation

Ruling Court: 2,000 Guineas winner steps up in trip for the Coral-EclipseCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

O'Brien has a useful second string in Delacroix, who bids to bounce back after disappointing favourite backers in the Derby. However, Epsom also-rans don't have the best of records, with the only recent exception being Roaring Lion after his third in that Classic. Furthermore, only four winners this century had not already triumphed at Group 1 level – both Delacroix and Almaqam bid to become the fifth.

Verdict

Three-year-olds are on a roll and Camille Pissarro brings an appealing profile as one with placed form in a Guineas and already proven at the trip after winning the French Derby.

However, older horses still have the overall bragging rights and Ombudsman is a fast-improving four-year-old who pulverised the opposition in what looked a strong renewal of the Prince of Wales's, which has long been a hugely influential pointer towards Sandown.

Ombudsman15:35 Sandown

View Racecard

Jky: William Buick Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

Latest Coral-Eclipse odds in full

Coral-Eclipse (3.35 Sandown, Saturday)
Coral: 11-8 Ombudsman, 9-2 Sosie, 13-2 Camille Pissarro, 8 Delacroix, 9 Almaqam, Anmaat, 11 Ruling Court, 14 White Birch, 20 Stanhope Gardens, 33 Hotazhell, 66 Expanded.

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