Who will win the 2025 William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster on Saturday based on previous trends?

The opening day of the British Flat turf season sees the William Hill Lincoln, one of the most competitive handicaps of the season, take centre stage at Doncaster on Saturday. We've taken a look at previous trends to try to help you pick the winner . . .

3.35 Doncaster Saturday: William Hill Lincoln racecard and betting

Rating

It takes a quality horse to win the Lincoln and in the ten runnings since 2014, nine winners were officially rated 99 or higher. Mr Professor, who won last year's contest off a mark of 92, is the only runner to buck that trend.

Eight of those winners since 2014 were officially rated between 99 and 102, with Migration, rated 107 when winning in 2023, and Mr Professor the exemptions. A £1 stake on all 80 runners rated within those limits since 2014 would have yielded a level-stakes profit of £32.

That is emphasised by the fact those with low weights have struggled in recent years, with Mr Professor (8st 8lb) the only winner since 2014 to carry less than 9st. Eight of the last ten winners were set to carry between 9st and 9st 5lb, while Migration won despite being allotted top weight of 9st 9lb.

Strict trends followers will find that four horses fit the bill on both fronts, including ante-post market leader Thunder Run and fellow four-year-old Midnight Gun, as well as Galeron and Sean.

Fitness

Having a run ahead of the Lincoln is not as crucial as you would think, and since 2014 only two winners had run within the previous 44 days or less – Ocean Tempest (2014) and Secret Brief (2016).

Both had run at Meydan in Dubai, though, which brings in the likes of Sean, Padishakh and Magnum Opus, who has a win and a close fourth to his name there since switching to a visor. The George Boughey-trained Oliver Show has also wintered away from Britain in Bahrain.

The ante-post market is dominated by horses making their reappearance, and it's no surprise as eight of the last ten winners had been off the track for 135 days or more. Fifty per cent of those had won when last seen.

Price

The Lincoln is a devilishly difficult puzzle for punters to solve and favourite backers have found things difficult, with just one winning market leader since 2014.

The nine outright favourites in that time frame finished 002210055, while the joint-favourites in 2014 – Tullius and Off Art – came second and fifth at 7-1.

Six of the last ten winners have been 12-1 or bigger, with the last three runnings going the way of 28-1 (Johan), 18-1 (Migration) and 33-1 (Mr Professor) shots.

Age

Younger horses have held sway in this handicap, with four-year-olds winning every race between 2016 and 2021, and three other runnings in the last ten years going the way of a five-year-old.

Migration is the only successful seven-year-old in the last ten runnings. A £1 stake on each of the 46 runners aged seven or older in that timeframe would have yielded a loss of £27.

Trainer

William Haggas has won this race a record-equalling four times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and Addeybb (2018). His seven runners since 2015 have finished 5100450.

Two of Charlie Appleby's four representatives since 2016 – Secret Brief and Auxerre (2019) – were successful.

Just three Irish-trained runners have taken their chance since 2014, finishing 005. The last successful runner was the Dermot Weld-trained Saving Mercy in 1984.

Draw

Four runnings since 2014 took place on soft ground and three of those winners came from stall ten or lower.

Five took place on good to soft (twice) or good (three times) ground, and three of the winners came from stall 15 or higher.

Field sizes must come into account, however, and the bias over which side is best to race on can shift from year to year.

With this trend, it's best to use some caution, and pay strong attention to the earlier races on the card to see which side of the track runners are favouring.

Verdict

The trends suggest a four-year-old making their reappearance who is rated between 99 and 102 is no bad place to start. Thunder Gun fits the bill, but he is likely to start favourite and with market leaders not faring so well in recent years, it could pay to side with Midnight Gun. He was beaten just a length by Harper's Ferry when last seen, producing a good Racing Post Rating of 108, and could be underestimated by a 5lb rise.

Midnight Gun15:35 Doncaster

View Racecard

Jky: James Doyle Tnr: Hamad Al Jehani

William Hill Lincoln (3.35 Doncaster, Saturday)
Sponsor: 5 Thunder Run, 6 Native Warrior, 10 Lattam, Midnight Gun, 12 Orandi, 16 Galeron, Godwinson, Whip Cracker, 20 bar

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