Who will win the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham based on previous trends?

The Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham, Saturday) is the main event of Cheltenham's three-day November meeting and we've looked at a number of factors over the past ten years to see who may win the £160,000 premier handicap . . .

Weight

Taquin Du Seuil is the only horse since 1994 to successfully shoulder 11st 11lb or more to victory, which does not bode well for topweight The Real Whacker.

No winner in the last decade, with the exception of Taquin Du Seuil in 2016, has carried more than 11st 5lb to success, which could potentially put trends followers off Stage Star. However, the Turners Novices' Chase winner's trainer Paul Nicholls demonstrated he could prepare a winner off a higher weight when Al Ferof obliged off 11st 8lb in 2012.

The last five winners have carried between 10st 11lb and 11st 5lb, which is encouraging for supporters of Fugitif, Authorized Art, Notlongtillmay, Final Orders, Sebastopol and Unexpected Party.

Freshness

Eight of the last ten winners had already made their seasonal debuts before landing the Paddy Power, which suggests that a prep run is preferable.

Unexpected Party, Notlongtillmay, Angels Breath and Final Orders are the only horses in the first ten in the betting to have run this season, with Stage Star, The Real Whacker, Fugitif, Il Ridoto, Whistleinthedark and Harper's Brook all attempting to win on their reappearance.

Annacotty and Johns Spirit demonstrated that winning off the back of a layoff could be done when scoring after 218 and 182 days off respectively.

How to claim £40 in Paddy Power free bets

Get £40 in free bets from Paddy Power for the weekend's racing

Course form

Five of the last nine winners had already won at Cheltenham before their Paddy Power win and only Stage Star, The Real Whacker, Il Ridoto and Torn And Frayed have course successes to their names of the 17 entered.

Stage Star: one of four course winners left in the Paddy Power Gold CupCredit: John Grossick

Three of the last ten winners had placed without winning at Cheltenham, so don't be put off the likes of Unexpected Party, Notlongtillmay, Fugitif and Angels Breath, who have all made the frame without getting their heads in front at the track.

Odds

Other than Splash Of Ginge's 25-1 success in 2017, no winner in the last decade has been sent off bigger than 14-1.

Seven of the last ten winners were 10-1 or shorter, so the winner could perhaps come from any of Stage Star, The Real Whacker, Unexpected Party, Notlongtillmay, Fugitif or Il Ridoto.

Trainer

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the Paddy Power Gold Cup on four occasions, so Torn And Frayed warrants respect.

However, the last five winners were representing trainers who had not previously won the race, so do not be put off backing a horse from a yard attempting to win the 2m4f handicap for the first time.

However, the poor record of Irish-trained horses must be taken into account. Edward O'Grady's Tranquil Sea was the last winner to be trained in Ireland, with that 2009 success the only horse not to be trained in Britain this century. Final Orders, Authorized Art and Mr Saxobeat bid to end Ireland's poor record in the race.

Age

Nine seven-year-olds have won the race this century, the winningmost age bracket in that period, which is encouraging for supporters of Stage Star, The Real Whacker, Notlongtillmay, Final Orders, Harper's Brook and Mr Saxobeat.

However, no seven-year-old has won the race since Baron Alco in 2018, so don't put off the likes of Il Ridoto, the sole six-year-old, who could replicate last year's winner Ga Law.

Verdict

Paul Nicholls has won the Paddy Power Gold Cup two times, including with the classy Al Ferof, who successfully shouldered 11st 8lb as a seven-year-old in 2012. Nicholls has another talented seven-year-old in Grade 1 novice winner Stage Star, who could defy an absence to give the champion trainer his third win in the prestigious handicap. The winner usually comes from near the top of the betting and Stage Star is a dual course winner who should confirm his Turners Novices' Chase form over Notlongtillmay and Unexpected Party at the weights.

Stage Star14:20 Cheltenham

View Racecard

Jky: Harry Cobden Tnr: Paul Nicholls

Grab a £40 Paddy Power free bet for the weekend

We've already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering £40 in free bets for the weekend.

Well, you can follow these simple steps outlined below to grab your £40 free bet to place on the big races. It's fast, secure and straightforward.

1. Head over to Paddy Power through this link and click the 'Join' button on their homepage
2. Create your username and password
3. Make a deposit of £10 or more using a card and place a bet on a sportsbook market with odds of 1-2 or greater
4. You will be rewarded with £40 of free bet tokens added to your balance

Paddy Power betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the weekend betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player.

• New UK & ROI customers only
• Minimum deposit £10 bet at minimum odds of 1-2 to qualify
• Get £40 in free bets, valid for 30 days
• SMS verification required
• Bets placed on greyhound racing markets are excluded
• Only deposits via cards will qualify

Read these next:

Who wins the Paddy Power Gold Cup? Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the big-race contenders 

Can Paul Byrne mastermind another gamble? Greatwood Hurdle fancy backed to score on first start for Willie Mullins 

Get set for the jumps! Join Members' Club now with 50% off just in time for the Big Jump Off and our brilliant stable tours 

Do you want £400+ of free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators that our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing.